As we close in on the Feb. 20 trade deadline, there will be increased chatter about trade rumors, hypothetical or otherwise. As is usual, many of the names mentioned will be of the same handful of players who are rumored to be on the block. As also is usual, many of these deals will serve the interests of one party, but not the other. To that end, we continue our series aimed to help examine some trade pairings and dissect the value delivered to the parties involved.
This week, we look at the oft-rumored Omer Asik of the Houston Rockets, who made his wishes to be traded immediately following Dwight Howard's announcement that he was joining Houston. While the Rockets attempted to placate Asik (and rebuild leverage) by claiming they planned to play both players alongside each another, that proved to be a failed experiment. Houston tried to move Asik in December in an attempt to retain the ability to repackage assets received into a second deal prior to the trade deadline. However, they were unable to draw a desirable enough offer (no doubt torpedoed by Asik's injury status).
A deal is not expected to be completed until closer to the trade deadline, as Houston attempts to pit several offers against one another, using the deadline as an incentive for teams to ante up. The talks have begun to heat back up recently, so here's an in-depth look at what could be a perfect trade: Asik to the Atlanta Hawks.
Asik
The player: Omer Asik
Usually these scouting reports start with the player's offensive breakdown, but in Asik's case, he's such a defensive juggernaut that we'll begin there. At 7 feet tall, he is one of the premier team defensive anchors in the league, combining excellent size and reach with a high IQ forged and augmented by two years of playing in Chicago for defensive mastermind Tom Thibodeau.
Asik does an excellent job of keeping his head on a swivel and tracking the ball while staying in contact with his man at the same time. In the post, he'll fight his opponent off position and deny post entry, then will do a nice job of bodying up and contesting the shot without leaving his feet. He's not much of a shot-blocker statistically (about 1.2 blocks per 36 minutes since joining the Rockets), but like many of the other contemporary defensive centers, he's mastered the art of "verticality," forcing the offensive player to finish over his outstretched arms without actively seeking the block. He's a very active pick-and-roll defender, with the requisite footwork to show hard on screens, forcing the ball handler to take an extra dribble away from the basket. He also is very adept at switching out onto the ball handler and moving his feet on the perimeter to prevent or delay dribble penetration (oddly enough, this attribute does not help him in recovering versus pick-and-pop threats, as he struggles to control closeouts on shooters). Finally, he's an elite defensive rebounder (an essential element to finishing the defensive play), posting DREB% in the mid-to-high 20s consistently.
For all of his defensive acumen, Asik is rather pedestrian offensively, lacking the ability to create his own shot, with no post game to speak of. He's at his best lurking on the baseline in the short corners and waiting for dump-off passes from penetrating guards to catch and finish at the rim. He doesn't have the best hands in the world, so passes need to be accurate (hit him "in the numbers"), and he is much more comfortable gathering and going off of two feet rather than taking off from further out and going up off one foot. Similarly, in pick-and-roll situations, he is much more effective as a delayed roll man; in other words, when the ball handler comes off the screen and keeps the ball for an extra beat, giving Asik time to get under the rim before having to catch and finish, rather than delivering immediately. Finally, it goes without saying that he is almost exclusively an at-rim threat, as 585 of his 614 FGA last year came within the restricted area.
The team: Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta has been a middling team thus far, hovering around the .500 mark (which, in the Eastern Conference, means a strong chance at the No. 3 seed). With a ton of financial flexibility (they are actually under the cap this season) and a solid pick inventory (own all of their picks moving forward, own first round pick swaps with Brooklyn in 2014 and 2015, as well as several second round picks), the Hawks are far from a finished product and stand to improve significantly with the right addition, especially in light of the season-ending injury to Al Horford .
With Horford, the Hawks were an average defensive team, allowing 102.3 points per 100 possessions and rebounding about 75 percent of their opponents' misses. A deeper look shows they allowed 27.7 FGA at the rim, 10th highest in the NBA, while only allowing 11 FGA in the non-restricted area of the paint, suggesting that opponents are not being dissuaded from getting all the way to the front of the rim to attempt shots.
Since Horford's injury, they are allowing 103.1 points per 100 possessions and rebounding only 72 percent of opponents' misses, with opponents attempting 28.2 shots at the rim and 10.6 shots in the non-restricted area of the paint. In essence, they are allowing more shots at the rim, rebounding misses less and conceding an extra point per 100 possessions.
Adding Asik would shore up Atlanta's frontline in the short run during Horford's absence, while also giving them a possible long-term answer as a defensive anchor.
The "other" team: Houston Rockets
You might ask "if Asik is so great, why does Houston desperately want to get rid of him?" There are three reasons. First, they have an elite version in Howard, who brings much of what Asik does defensively with the added benefit of being a scoring threat in a variety of fashions. Second, ideally an Asik trade can help clear his 2014-15 cap hit, giving them a little more breathing room to be able to make another splash in free agency.
The final reason lies in his contract: Because Asik was signed away from Chicago using the Gilbert Arenas provision (a CBA mechanism designed to allow capped-out teams to be able to match offer sheets made to their Early-Bird restricted free agents), his actual cash owed in 2014-15 exceeds his cap hit significantly (almost $15 million cash versus $8.4 million cap hit). That's a luxury the Rockets would prefer not to pay for someone who doesn't figure to play much.
The trade
Atlanta trades: Elton Brand, Jared Cunningham, Pero Antic, and either the rights to Lucas Nogueira OR a 2015 first round pick (lottery protected).
Atlanta receives: Omer Asik, Isaiah Canaan.
Despite the fact that Atlanta's short-term payroll increases by $2.5 million, they are clearly ending up with the talent in the deal, which would probably preclude them from asking for cash considerations (although they might seek a protected future second round pick in return). Canaan is a nice throw-in as a volume-shooting, deep-range threat who can provide some depth at the point guard position.
For Houston, they don't really get that much better in the short-run: Brand is a serviceable backup veteran big, but isn't the floor-spacing stretch 4 they are seeking; Antic can space the floor out to the 3-point line, but isn't much of a rebounding presence; Cunningham is an athletic combo guard who has struggled to find his niche in the league. The Rockets would also need to waive Robert Covington, who has yet to appear in a game, to create the extra roster space to make this deal; that'll cost them the $250,000 he's guaranteed next season. But the true value is in clearing the financial debt keeping Asik would entail, gaining that flexibility for next season, and scoring a nice future asset in Nogueria, an up-and-coming Brazilian big playing in the Spanish ACB, or a future first, if they choose to gamble on future draft classes.
Standing in the way of this deal is Houston's desire to add someone who can be more beneficial to their short-term competitiveness. They'll be weighing an Atlanta offer against competing bids from teams such as the Philadelphia 76ers, who will dangle stretch center Spencer Hawes' expiring deal, and will seek to create a bidding war with the trade deadline acting like the end date for an eBay auction.