As we close in on the Feb. 20 trade deadline, there will be increased chatter about trade rumors, hypothetical or otherwise. As is usual, many of the names mentioned will be of the same handful of players who are rumored to be on the block. As also is usual, many of these deals will serve the interests of one party, but not the other. To that end, we'll start a series to help examine some trade pairings and dissect the value delivered to the parties involved.
We start with the Denver Nuggets, whose roller-coaster season has reached a tipping point with head coach Brian Shaw and point guard Andre Miller engaging in a loud argument on the bench during Miller's first DNP-CD of his career. Miller is now on the trading block, with several teams vying for the services of one of the most underrated point guards of the past decade.
Here's an in-depth look at what could be a perfect trade: Miller to the Washington Wizards.
The player: Andre Miller
In an era where many athletically superhuman point guards are shouldering the scoring load for their teams and perimeter prowess is a prerequisite, Miller has defied the career odds as an extremely effective pass-first point guard with limited quickness and leaping ability. What he has is an uncanny feel for the game, excellent vision, superb body strength and balance, and knowledge of how to combine those attributes to gain an advantage.
At 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, Miller is bigger and bulkier than most opposing guards, and his stocky frame allows him to shield the ball from defenders by keeping them on his hip. He's been one of the best post-up point guards of the past 20 years (along with Jason Kidd, Gary Payton and Sam Cassell), and as such teams routinely will use a larger wing defender to check him (when I was with Phoenix facing off against Miller in the 2010 playoffs, Alvin Gentry used Grant Hill to defend Miller). Even so, Miller's strength allows him to back down bigger defenders and force help defense to collapse, opening multiple passing avenues for him. If the help doesn't come, he is a very adept finisher at the rim and again uses his girth to protect from shot contests.
Despite not being fleet of foot, Miller is a dangerous player in transition because he always has his head up and is looking to hit ahead for leaking teammates. If he keeps the ball, he is very difficult to defend with a full head of steam, as he seeks to initiate contact and finish through it. In pick-and-roll, he is capable of making multiple reads; he is an especially adept lob passer, either to the roll man or to weakside baseline cutters. He's not a good 3-point shooter (even though he's shooting 50 percent so far this season), but he does not let that hinder his pick-and-roll execution. For defenders who choose to go under on screens, he can take a long 2-point shot (45 percent from 16 to 24 feet over the past two seasons), and also does a good job of attacking space with change of pace, making it difficult for defenders to recover.
Miller's defense leaves a lot to be desired, as he does not move well enough laterally to contain dribble penetration, something the Golden State Warriors exploited during last season's playoffs. As a result, he's often forced to guard bigger opponents in an effort to hide him, but age has not been kind to Miller's quickness. He struggles even to prevent dribble penetration there, either. Another potential area of concern is Miller's gruff bedside manner: He's not a socially affable player and is somewhat of a loner. As one veteran player told me, "he's quiet and distanced but he comes to work every day. He's best suited on a veteran team where people let him do his job and don't ask him to give speeches."
The team: Washington Wizards
At 16-18 entering Saturday, the Wizards are sixth in the Eastern Conference standings and only 2.5 games behind No. 3 seed Atlanta. With the injury to Al Horford weakening the Hawks, the trade of Luol Deng signalling the impending shutdown in Chicago and the underachieving seasons of the Knicks and Nets, Washington has a very real chance to make a move for "best of the rest" of the Eastern Conference (after Miami and Indiana). While starting point guard John Wall has performed well, with the team scoring 104 points per 100 possessions, the Wizards' offensive production falls off a cliff when he is not on the floor (a paltry 89 points per 100 possessions). They have a very strong need at backup point guard, where offseason free-agent signee Eric Maynor has not panned out and the team has resorted to giving minutes to journeyman Garrett Temple and shooting guard Bradley Beal.
Adding Miller would shore up the Wall-less lineups, while also giving the Wizards the added benefit of being able to play Miller and Wall at the same time in two-point guard backcourts. And while Miller isn't the most engaging personality, it probably can't hurt for Wall to observe first-hand how another player with a weak jump shot is able to flourish in the league using his size advantage and change of tempo.
The "other" team: Denver Nuggets
It's safe to say Miller has worn out his stay in Denver. The team really has no need for him at the position, with Ty Lawson as the incumbent starter, and Nate Robinson and Randy Foye capable of filling in the backup point guard duties. That said, Miller still has market value as a backup point guard who can step into a starting role if need be, and extensive experience playing alongside playmakers in the backcourt (with Lawson in Denver, Brandon Roy in Portland, Andre Iguodala in Philadelphia and Denver).
The trade
Washington trades: Eric Maynor, Al Harrington, Chris Singleton, unprotected 2015 second-round pick, cash considerations
Washington receives: Andre Miller
Miller's deal calls for him to make $5 million this season and $4.6 million next; however, only $2 million of that second-year salary is guaranteed if he is waived by June 28. This makes Miller a more attractive asset, as a player who can help you now while also giving the acquiring team flexibility to exit the deal at year's end. For a Wizards team looking to make a strong playoff push, Miller answers a lot of questions with very little financial downside looking forward.
Since Denver is at the roster maximum of 15 players, they would be unable to accept any more than one player in a Miller trade (without involving other players). Enter Orlando as “The Facilitator”, a role we’ve seen more and more common recently. As a rebuilding team with ample cap space and two vacant roster spots, Orlando can afford to accept the two extra contracts of Harrington and Singleton (who they can summarily waive immediately). In return, they’ll receive cash considerations (roughly $1.5 million to cover for the prorated remaining salary of those two players) and a conditional 2016 2nd round pick (if it falls below 45, the Magic have the option of declining it and receiving $250,000 in cash instead).
Of the three players Washington sends away, only Maynor is due any salary beyond this season ($2.1 million), meaning Denver is only on the hook for roughly $100,000 more than they would have been had they held onto Miller and waived him at the end of the season. Since Denver’s payroll decreases tremendously ($3 million difference from Miller to Maynor’s salary), they can kick in on some of the cash headed to Orlando
With the money squared away on both ends, the final piece of compensation to Denver for the rights to Miller come in the form of an unprotected second-round pick in 2015. Since the Wizards already have a second round-pick coming from New Orleans in 2015, they can afford to send an extra pick to Denver, who owe its own second-rounder to Minnesota. The teams also have the option to haggle by negotiating whether Washington sends the more or less favorable of its 2015 second-round picks.
Standing in the way of this deal is Denver's desire for more than just a second-round pick in return for Miller, seeking a player asset or perhaps a juicier incentive. The Nuggets might seek to sit back and wait, hoping for a better offer to materialize as we get closer to the trade deadline.