To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Terry Rozier.
WARP Projection: 1.0 (42nd among top 100)
Comps: Ben Gordon (95.4), Jared Cunningham (94.5), Patrick Mills (93.5), Jordan Crawford (92.9)
Strengths: Rebound%, TO%
Weaknesses: 2P%, FTA%, Assist%
The analytics perspective
Rozier's ability to get to the basket is tantalizing, but there are plenty of red flags in his Louisville statistics. While Rozier took more than a quarter of his shots near the basket, per Hoop-Math.com, he made them at an unimpressive 55.0 percent clip. As a result, Rozier made just 44.7 percent of his 2-pointers overall. And he wasn't much better outside the arc, shooting 30.6 percent from 3-point range this season and 33.5 percent in his two-year career. The only thing keeping Rozier's true shooting percentage on the right side of .500 was his five free throw attempts per game, which he made at a healthy 77.2 percent rate.
The question marks about Rozier's ability to score efficiently would be one thing if he were driving and dishing, but that's not really the case. He averaged just 3.4 assists per 40 minutes while splitting ballhandling responsibilities with Chris Jones before Jones' dismissal from the team. That's barely more than Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky (3.2). Rozier may be more effective in the wide-open NBA game, and he has the potential to be a capable on-ball defender with his pressure, but his stock appears too high at this point.
-- Kevin Pelton
The scouting perspective
At 6-foot-2 and armed with a nearly 6-foot-7 wingspan, Rozier is an explosive NBA-level athlete and that gives him a good starting point for his potential NBA career. But, his point guard skill level is low and must be improved on for him to excite his future employers.
First of all, his ability to make shots at the NBA level will be, at least initially, problematic. This season, he made a shade over 50 percent of his shots at the rim in the half court. (By comparison, Arizona's T.J. McConnell made 67 percent of his shots at the rim this season.)
From the perimeter, Rozier made only 40 percent of his 2-point jump shots and a below-average 31 percent from behind the arc. That inability to not keep NBA defenses honest with his outside shooting will shrink the floor for his future teammates.
In Rick Pitino's offensive system, Rozier was involved in screen-and-roll situations a lot. On 26 percent of his possessions for the Cardinals, he created a below-average .74 points per possession. Interestingly, in 43 "late clock" opportunities this season -- plays with the ball in his hands and the shot clock under five seconds -- he had an Effective Field Goal Rate of only 33.7 percent, according to hoop-math.com.
It is on the defensive end where Rozier can use his speed and athleticism to his advantage. While he will be polishing up his offensive skills early in his career, he may be able to contribute immediately on the other end of the court.
-- Fran Fraschilla
The front office perspective
Rozier played backup to Russ Smith as a freshman and got just minimal draft buzz despite a strong performance coming off the bench. However, he had a coming out party this summer at the LeBron James and Adidas Nations camps, and scouts immediately expected him to be in play as a potential late lottery to mid-first round pick.
Rozier lived up to expectations -- sort of. He had a much bigger role in the Louisville offense as a sophomore and put up terrific scoring numbers. He's strong, athletic and plays with great intensity on both ends of the floor. When he's good, he certainly looked the part of a lottery pick -- a sort of Kyle Lowry-type player.
However, his weaknesses were also exposed with more playing time. He's prone to poor shot selection, was an inconsistent 3-point shooter, and while he can pass the ball, he struggled at times to get Louisville's offense flowing. His natural instinct is to score and he often did that at the expense of his teammates. Rozier's weaknesses were on full display in Louisville's loss to Michigan State in the Elite Eight. He shot 6-for-23 from the field and many of those shots weren't good ones.
Still, players with his toughness, athleticism, speed and drive don't come along every day. If he improves his decision-making and keeps working on his jump shot, he could be a very good pro -- he has all the physical tools. Look for him to go in the 20 to 35 range.
-- Chad Ford