Every year, I put together a "Best Available List" for ESPN's coverage of the NBA draft. For the past 11 years, this list has been based not upon a player's expected draft position, but on which players are the best prospects and project to be the best NBA pros.
For this year's Top 30 best available players, I have broken down each player with his "Success Piece" (the attributes the player exhibits that will most likely lead him to success in the NBA), his "Fail Piece" (the things that could hold the player back from having success in the NBA), his projected fit in the league, and a brief overview.
1. Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
Success Piece: Elite shooter and transition athlete.
Fail Piece: Assertiveness, overall toughness and maturity, ability to defend in isolation.
Projected Fit: Starter to All-Star
Overview: McLemore is the player in this draft who is most likely to mature into an All-Star. His talents are considerable. The only question is whether he has the temperament and assertiveness to be a star performer on the NBA level. If selected by a team with an established star, McLemore can have the room to mature into one himself.
2. Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky
Success Piece: Top-level athlete who is a specialist with a coveted NBA skill. Noel is a shot-blocker and shot changer who has a great motor and can rebound.
Fail Piece: Limited offensive threat who lacks an NBA-ready post game and has a slight build. He is also coming off of a torn ACL.
Projected Fit: Starter
Overview: Noel has excellent athleticism and an uncanny ability to block shots. He protects the rim, is very active in getting deflections and steals, and is an excellent all-around defensive big man. He lacks bulk and a strong base to get and hold position, and he does not have a face-up game or back-to-the-basket game. His offensive success comes from his activity level.
3. Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
Success Piece: Good leader and point guard prospect with excellent vision, passing ability and scoring ability. Burke has a high basketball IQ and is an excellent competitor.
Fail Piece: Size, and lacks elite athleticism and explosive speed.
Projected Fit: Starter
Overview: Burke is a scoring point guard who is excellent in transition and very good at using ball screens. He is a very good catch-and-shoot guard, and gets into the lane with his strength, change of pace and direction. Burke lacks size, but is no smaller than Chris Paul; the issue for him is that he lacks the overall speed and quickness of the truly elite, athletic point guards in the NBA.
4. Otto Porter Jr., SF, Georgetown
Success Piece: Multitalented scorer who is primarily a jump-shooter. Good rebounder and defender who is long, athletic and has a high-level understanding of the game.
Fail Piece: Good but not great athlete. Does not excel at attacking off of the dribble.
Projected Fit: Starter to All-Star
Overview: Porter is the most complete player in the draft, and has the chance to be an elite defender with his length and versatility. A patient passer and team player, Porter can be assertive or pick his spots and make the right play.
5. Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
Success Piece: NBA body, maturity and athleticism. Oladipo is outstanding in transition and at attacking the rim, and as an individual defender.
Fail Piece: Not a primary scorer
Projected Fit: Starter
Overview: Oladipo was as improved as any player in college basketball last season, and one of the most efficient. He is a worker who improved his shot consistency and accepted the challenge of guarding the opponent's best offensive player. Oladipo can hit open shots and has improved his range, yet attacks the rim with power and athleticism. He will excel in the open floor in the NBA.
6. Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
Success Piece: Very skilled power forward who can stretch a defense to 3-point territory, play with his back to the basket, rebound at a high rate, and bust out after a defensive rebound and take it coast to coast.
Fail Piece: An undersized power forward who may struggle to defend on the perimeter.
Projected Fit: Starter
Overview: Bennett is recovering from shoulder surgery. An outstanding offensive player who is multiskilled, Bennett can run, shoot from deep and is very productive in a variety of categories.
7. Alex Len, C, Maryland
Success Piece: A true NBA center at 7-foot-1 with a good shooting touch and the ability to block shots and rebound.
Fail Piece: Limited defending one-on-one in the post, physical toughness has been questioned.
Projected Fit: Rotation to starter
Overview: Len is a very talented big man who is mobile, can run the floor and has a good feel for the game. He needs to get physically tougher and seek out contact rather than shy away from it, but he has the tools to be the best overall big man in this draft.
8. Cody Zeller, PF, Indiana
Success Piece: Size, overall quickness and athleticism, and the ability to run the floor.
Fail Piece: Finishing ability over size and rebounding productivity.
Projected Fit: Starter
Overview: As an NBA big man, Zeller has elite athleticism and the ability to change ends. He is an excellent pick-and-roll defender, and is a good offensive rebounder who gets to the free throw line often. Zeller needs to establish that he can score effectively over size around the rim and hit open, face-up jump shots. Despite questions about his toughness and ability to get and hold position inside, Zeller is an outstanding prospect.
9. C.J. McCollum, PG, Lehigh
Success Piece: Elite shooter and scorer with NBA range.
Fail Piece: Untested as a point guard, lacks elite athleticism to guard NBA point guards, and suffered a season-ending foot injury at Lehigh.
Projected Fit: Rotation to starter
Overview: McCollum is a versatile combo guard who is excellent in the open floor and has the ability to create his own shot. He is a good rebounder for a guard and is active getting steals and deflections on the defensive end.
10. Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
Success Piece: Size and athleticism at the point guard position, good passing ability and good speed.
Fail Piece: Physical strength, lack of consistency and perimeter shooting ability.
Projected Fit: Rotation to starter
Overview: Carter-Williams is an excellent passer and handler, especially in transition. He is an active defender at the top of the zone and gets steals and deflections. Carter-Williams has very good quickness, speed and length, and lacks only the ability to consistently knock down open shots.
11. Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UCLA
Success Piece: Aggressive, long-armed driver, transition scorer and lefty "catch-and-shoot" wing.
Fail Piece: Lacks elite athleticism and is not a focused defender.
Projected Fit: Rotation to starter
Overview: Muhammad is in better condition now than he was during his injury-riddled freshman season at UCLA. He is a long-armed, scoring wing who is assertive and expects to have the ball and to be a focal point. He is not yet a great passer or individual defender.
12. Kelly Olynyk, C, Gonzaga
Success Piece: Olynyk is a true 7-footer who is very skilled and has the ability to step away from the basket and hit an open jump shot to 3-point range. He is very efficient, can play with his back to the basket or face up and stretch the floor.
Fail Piece: Olynyk is not a shot-blocker, rim protector or post defender, lacks length and explosiveness around the goal.
Projected Fit: Rotation to starter
Overview: Olynyk is an excellent prospect whose offense is far ahead of his defense.
13. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
Success Piece: Very good shooter and scorer who has the potential to also be a solid individual defender. He can stay in front of quick guards and has the ability to make open shots.
Fail Piece: Caldwell-Pope is a good athlete but not quite an elite NBA athlete.
Projected Fit: Rotation to starter
Overview: Caldwell-Pope is primarily a shooter, but he can deck it and attack the rim. Caldwell-Pope must continue to improve as a handler, passer and defender.
14. Mason Plumlee, C, Duke
Success Piece: Outstanding athlete with an NBA body. Good, efficient low-post scorer and finisher at the rim, and an elite rebounder.
Fail Piece: Lacks a face-up shot, midrange jump shot, and ability to hit a good percentage of his free throws
Projected Fit: Rotation to starter
Overview: Plumlee is an excellent interior athlete who can run the floor, rebound at a high rate and finish plays above the rim. Plumlee is not an elite shot-blocker.
15. Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany
Success Piece: Athletic point guard with length, speed and excellent quickness.
Fail Piece: Strength and turnovers.
Projected Fit: Rotation to starter
Overview: Schroeder was excellent at the Nike Hoop Summit in both practices and the game, and showed the ability to score and to defend at the point guard position.
16. Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh
Success Piece: Adams has excellent size, an NBA body, is a good athlete and has a very good skill level.
Fail Piece: Adams is very raw offensively, limited in the post, and is a poor free throw shooter.
Projected Fit: Rotation to starter
Overview: Adams has excellent potential. He can run, has good feet and is skilled for his size. He can catch and finish, and is still developing. He is a physical defender who can bang bodies on the block and step out and defend pick-and-rolls.
17. Dario Saric, SF, Croatia
Success Piece: A 6-10 perimeter player with offensive versatility and good passing instincts.
Fail Piece: Not an elite athlete.
Projected Fit: Rotation
Overview: Saric has a good skill level, a very good handle and can pass the ball and make plays for himself and others. He is not an elite athlete and defending NBA wings will be a challenge. Saric is not a consistent shooter.
18. Rudy Gobert, PF, France
Success Piece: Good size (7-2) and tremendous length (7-8 wingspan, longest at the NBA draft combine), and can block shots and rebound.
Fail Piece: Limited offensive game and lacks elite athleticism and upper body and lower body strength.
Projected Fit: Rotation to starter
Overview: Gobert is a developmental project with very good tools. He is a hard worker who has good hands, makes his free throws and has a chance to develop in time.
19. Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
Success Piece: Quick and athletic point guard who can score and run a team.
Fail Piece: Lacks size and length.
Projected Fit: Rotation to starter
Overview: Larkin is an elite-level athlete with outstanding speed and quickness. He is explosive in his first step and getting off of the floor. He is a good shooter, and is very good off of ball screens, making good decisions as to when to pass it and when to take it himself.
20. Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
Success Piece: Athletic, long-armed and versatile wing scorer who is a very good rebounder and defender.
Fail Piece: Not an efficient shooter.
Projected Fit: Rotation
Overview: Franklin is good in transition, can attack off the dribble and is an excellent rebounding wing, especially on the defensive end. He can score, but is not an efficient shooter. Franklin plays really hard and is productive.
21. Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville
Success Piece: A productive rebounder with good size and excellent shot-blocking ability.
Fail Piece: Limited low-post scorer.
Projected Fit: Rotation
Overview: Dieng is durable, works hard and has good mobility. He can patrol the paint, but also get out and move his feet to contain as a ball-screen defender. He is an improved offensive threat, can make a face-up jumper to 18 feet, and is a good passer.
22. Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
Success Piece: Withey has good size, length and mobility for a center, and is an excellent shot-blocker who can change shots around the basket. He has a good shooting touch to 17 feet.
Fail Piece: Withey is slight of build and lacks the lower-body strength to secure and maintain low-block position.
Projected Fit: Rotation
Overview: Withey will be able to protect the rim in the NBA and can challenge shooters around the goal and do so without fouling. He can make open shots, but is otherwise limited in the post. He lacks physical strength in getting and holding position against physical post players.
23. Lorenzo Brown, PG, NC State
Success Piece: Point guard with size, athleticism and passing ability.
Fail Piece: A good but not explosive athlete, Brown is not a consistent jump-shooter or focused defender.
Projected Fit: Rotation to Starter
Overview: Brown is an excellent transition scorer who has the ability to pass and create opportunities for his teammates.
24. Allen Crabbe, SG, California
Success Piece: Good shooter with athleticism.
Fail Piece: Unfocused defender and limited handler and passer.
Projected Fit: Rotation
Overview: Crabbe is one of the best shooters in the draft, with very good range and shooting form. He has the length, size and athleticism to be a good defender, but he has not been focused at that end of the floor to this point in his career. Crabbe has a scorer's mentality and can shoot off of screens or get his own. He is not a driver and does not get to the foul line as often as he should.
25. Sergey Karasev, SG, Russia
Success Piece: Good shooter and scorer with high-level experience.
Fail Piece: Not an elite athlete.
Projected Fit: Rotation
Overview: Karasev is a lefty shooter and scorer who showed well at the Nike Hoop Summit in Portland in April. Karasev needs to get stronger and improve his defense, as well as improve his ability to put the ball down and attack off the dribble.
26. Tony Mitchell, SF, North Texas
Success Piece: Physical specimen with tremendous length and explosive athleticism; an outstanding rebounder and finisher.
Fail Piece: Motor and defensive focus.
Projected Fit: Rotation
Overview: Mitchell did not have a great season, but did have a coaching change that affected him. He has all of the physical gifts, but has drifted at times and has not been as focused or productive as his tools suggest he should be. He can make a face-up jumper to 3-point range, but does not have a consistent or reliable post game.
27. Pierre Jackson, PG, Baylor
Success Piece: Excellent speed, quickness and explosiveness as a point guard.
Fail Piece: Lacks size, turnover-prone.
Projected Fit: Rotation
Overview: Jackson is a very good passer and is at his best using ball screens. He is an explosive scorer who can shoot it with range. With his athleticism and attack mentality, Jackson can change the pace of the game. As a defender, Jackson can be disruptive, but he is not consistent in applying pressure. The only thing that can hold him back in the NBA is his lack of size.
28. Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil
Success Piece: Size for position, great length, with ability to rebound and change ends
Fail Piece: Raw offensively, lacks strength to get and keep post position
Projected Fit: Rotation
Overview: Nogueira has good physical tools, but lacks overall skill on the offensive end. He does not have a reliable post game, and does not have face-up skills. He is a developmental player who will be very good in time.
29. Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan
Success Piece: Very good perimeter shooter with good athleticism.
Fail Piece: Limited handler.
Projected Fit: Rotation
Overview: Hardaway has improved his overall game in his time at Michigan, and has become more than just a jump-shooter. He is a good athlete who can make open shots with range. He still needs to improve his focus as a defender and improve his handling ability.
30. Reggie Bullock, SG, North Carolina
Success Piece: Very good shooter and excellent individual defender.
Fail Piece: Limited handler.
Projected Fit: Rotation
Overview: Bullock has excellent range on his shot, and is a very good open shooter. He is a good athlete with good size and athleticism. Bullock has shown the ability to defend the opponent's best wing scorer, and works hard at both ends. He needs to improve his handling and passing.