We are two weeks into the 2025 MLB season, and teams have played about a dozen of their 162 games. While that isn't enough for bold declarations, we're going to skip right past that fact and have some fun.
As we do every year at this time, we asked our MLB experts to go all-in on one thing they've noticed so far, with their boldest prediction based on the small sample. They were allowed to pick anything they wanted with two ground rules: It had to be bold, and it had to be something they actually believe can happen.
Some of our predictions came in hot, while others have a milder vibe, so we have taken the liberty of ranking the predictions by their MLB stadium weather equivalent and breaking down why they landed in their tier.
April at Comerica Park in Detroit
There's a reason the Yankees and Tigers are playing day games this week.
A breakout player smorgasbord
I'll go with a collection of predictions and expect three of the four to hit: Cristopher Sanchez finishes top three in National League Cy Young voting, Spencer Schwellenbach posts at least 4.0 WAR and gets NL Cy Young votes, Jack Leiter finishes top five in American League ROY voting, and Tyler Soderstrom posts at least 2.5 WAR after entering this year with minus-0.7 career WAR.
Sanchez is the elder statesman of the group at 28 years old, but I'm mostly betting on young players turning the corner (Leiter and Soderstrom), building on what they've already done (Schwellenbach) or making the leap with a couple extra ticks of velo (Sanchez). -- Kiley McDaniel
Why it's out in the cold: This strategy worked out for you last year, but as the old bold prediction saying goes: Someone who has multiple hot takes, has no hot takes. If you hit on any of these, we think you will consider it a win and tell us you got it right -- just like the fan who lets everyone know they called the big March Madness upset but doesn't mention they filled out four different brackets.
Pete Alonso is going to set a career high with 135 RBIs
Pete Alonso's offensive production has declined over the past three seasons, but he already looks like a better hitter in 2025. The four-time All-Star is making smarter swing decisions. He's clubbing balls the other way. He's playing like someone with millions of dollars on the line next winter after a disappointing initial free agent experience (because he is that someone).
That motivation, combined with having Francisco Lindor and the on-base machine known as Juan Soto hit in front of him, should generate improved numbers, including 135 RBIs, which would surpass his career high of 131, after he accumulated just 88 last season. -- Jorge Castillo
Why it's out in the cold: On the surface, 135 is a lot of runs batted in. It's a total that would have led the NL in all but one full season over the past 15 years. The thing bringing down the heat on this take is in your last sentence: Alonso has already driven in 131 runs once in his career -- and now he has Soto batting in front of him.
May at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
What feels warm to you, might not to others.
The Mariners will finish the season right where they are now: in last place
I had to talk myself into this hot take, but the more I thought about it the more I believed it really could happen. First off, predicting the Mariners for as low as third place isn't all that hard. Houston and Texas have good teams. The hotter take comes in having the Athletics and Angels beat them out as well.
It all comes down to those teams being able to pitch just enough while out-hitting the perennially challenged-at-the-plate Mariners. And here's the thing about Seattle's pitching staff: It's dominant at home but just OK on the road. Last year, the Mariners ranked 19th in road ERA. There are some in the industry who already like the Athletics as much as the Mariners, so the real leap comes with the Angels. If healthy, the A's will narrowly beat out Seattle for fourth place. -- Jesse Rogers
Why it's more mild than hot: The Mariners won 16 games more than the A's last season and 25 more than the Angels, so we're not denying that this is where our takes really start warming up. And we love that you worked in some industry sources for some good old-fashioned hot takes reporting.
The true trouble with your take is that while you were willing to provide us with something that feels like that first warm spring day in the Pacific Northwest, we have another AL West standings prediction coming that blows yours away.
Mike Trout will win his first Gold Glove ... as a right fielder
A Gold Glove is the only individual accolade Mike Trout has not attained (team success is another story, of course). He desperately wanted one in center field, but the competition in the American League -- with Adam Jones, Byron Buxton, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Kevin Kiermaier -- was too stiff. And Trout, frankly, wasn't consistently elite enough.
Now, at age 33, he plays right field.
The transition was motivated by a desire to keep Trout healthy after he missed 41% of the Angels' games over the past four years. But Angels people have raved about how easily he has made the switch and how good he looks in an outfield corner. They believe he can be a difference-maker defensively there, just like Torii Hunter was when he made the same move late in his career. And if you're thinking this isn't a spicy take, take a look at what happened to Trout on Tuesday night, losing a fly ball while ranging down the right-field line in Tampa.
There will be growing pains as Trout adjusts to the flight of the ball from a different spot, but he will be dynamic nonetheless - and by the end of the year, his glove will be gold. -- Alden Gonzalez
Why it's more mild than hot: If we knew Trout was going to play at least 130 games this season, saying the former center fielder would win a Gold Glove in right field wouldn't seem like going out on a limb. So what you are really doing here is predicting Trout will stay healthy enough to win a Gold Glove in 2025. Which, given his recent history, is certainly bold. But Trout is still only 33 years old and has to stay healthy one of these years -- right? Let's hope.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is going to finish in the top 3 in the NL MVP race
That might not seem like a hot take based on his history -- he has already finished fourth and third in the MVP voting in his career. But after missing all of 2022 because of injury and PED suspension, this will be the year he returns to preeminence as an evolved player at age 26 -- he's more patient, putting himself in counts to do more damage. His small sample of early-season numbers are eye-opening: He has more walks than strikeouts and has reached base in about 45% of his plate appearances. -- Buster Olney
Why it's more mild than hot: The NL is stacked with individual talent this year, so predicting anyone not named Ohtani, Betts, Soto or Lindor will break through near the top of MVP voting has some heat to it. But we have indeed seen MVP-level play from Tatis during his young career, and at age 26, calling his place near the top of this year's voting seems a little more realistic than bold.
June at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
These would be really hot, but there's something holding back the heat.
Aaron Judge will post a .500 OBP for the season
This is unattainable, right? Probably. It hasn't been done in MLB since 2004 (Barry Bonds), in the AL since 1957 (Mickey Mantle) and by a right-handed hitter since 1943 (Josh Gibson). Judge logged a career-high .458 OBP last season, including an astronomical .496 in 62 games after the All-Star break. He's likely to walk more frequently this season (133 walks in 2024) without Juan Soto clogging first base, and the metrics indicate he's being umpired more favorably, especially at the bottom of the zone. -- Paul Hembekides
Why it's hot-ish: Bonds! Mantle! Gibson! Those names were supposed to impress us, right? Well, they did. There's only one thing keeping your take from joining our hottest tiers: the man it is about. Judge has made a career out of joining the most revered names in baseball history at the top of so many hitting leaderboards that almost nothing he could do in a season would surprise us at this point.
Luis Arraez will be the first player in more than three decades with at least 600 plate appearances and fewer than 20 strikeouts
Oh, wow, you're really going out a limb here, Passan. Luis Arráez doesn't strike out a lot. Profound. A fair criticism, sure, but I'm not sure you understand the rarity of a player striking out fewer than 20 times with that sort of bulk. Tony Gwynn never did it. Wade Boggs never did it. The last player to log at least 600 plate appearances with punchouts in the teens was Ozzie Smith in 1993 (603 and 18, respectively). Before that, it was Bill Buckner and Rich Dauer in 1980.
Arraez struck out 29 times in 672 plate appearances last year, but he's off to a far better start this season -- zero in 48 trips to the plate -- and at 28 years old his contact skills are nearing their peak. Arráez's bat-to-ball ability has been great; this year, it will ascend to historically so. -- Jeff Passan
Why it's hot-ish: This is hotter than it might seem. Twenty strikeouts is a long weekend for some of today's hitters. So why isn't it in one of the next tiers? It suffers from the same thing as the Judge prediction above -- the player it's about. Arraez struck out 11 times in the first month of the 2024 season, then never K'd more than six times in a calendar month again, including just five times after the All-Star break. Those numbers are just silly in today's strikeout-fueled game, and they show Arraez is more than capable of making your prediction a reality.
July at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento
At least it's a dry heat, right?
Athletics prospect Nick Kurtz debuts in April, finishes with a top-10 OPS, wins AL Rookie of the Year
Kurtz, the left-handed-hitting slugger chosen with the No. 4 pick just last summer out of Wake Forest, is ready for the major leagues, like now. Now! Kurtz, 22, produced ridiculous college numbers, showing off his power and plate discipline; starred in brief action in the minors last season; and is already tearing up Triple-A. You want to attract fans in Sacramento? Move 50-homer possibility Brent Rooker to left field and install the next Jim Thome at DH, eradicating the Miguel Andujar-Seth Brown platoon. Score more runs. Score many more runs. Kurtz helps do that. Now. - Eric Karabell
Why it's hot: It's currently April 9, 2025. A year ago today, Nick Kurtz put together a two-home run, five-RBI game -- against Coastal Carolina while batting cleanup for Wake Forest. Since then, Kurtz has gone No. 4 in the draft, landed at No. 52 in Kiley McDaniel's preseason top 100 and torn up Triple-A pitching this spring.
But you know what really got us here? The way you just casually slipped in a comp to a Hall of Fame slugger with 612 career home runs midway through your reasoning. Whether he's in the majors in time to make your Rookie of the Year prediction possible remains to be seen. But let's all hope Kurtz is up dropping bombs like Jim Thome in the Sacramento heat by the time July rolls around.
Kris Bubic will be a top-five Cy Young finisher
My annual disclaimer: Hot-taking is just not a comfortable space to me, either offering them or consuming them. But I am contractually obligated to participate, so I chose something that feels like a long shot but is based on a real observation.
Bubic is a new guy. He learned last season how his stuff could play at the big league level, working in increasingly high-leverage bullpen spots down the stretch and into the playoffs. He has taken that approach, added a new slider and slotted into the Royals' overall rotation design that emphasizes aggression in the zone and the pitch efficiency that goes along with it. Bubic has sparkled, ranking among the top 10 starters in average exit velocity allowed on pitches in the zone. Last year, the Royals had two top-five Cy Young finishers, and they're going to do it again. Only this time, it'll be Bubic joining Cole Ragans on that leaderboard. -- Bradford Doolittle
Why it's hot-ish: If we were simply ranking pitchers in the Royals rotation by likelihood of finishing in the top five of AL Cy Young voting, Bubic might not land in the top three. And even with his hot start to 2025, he has a career mark of 11-27 with a 4.81 ERA as a starter. So, yeah, this is a hot take by our standards.
There's only one thing keeping this from landing in our hottest tier: We've seen this story of unproven pitcher to top-flight starter play out for the Royals before -- first with Cole Ragans, then Seth Lugo last season. And we read an excellent article going into the season that has us believing Kansas City might have a formula for this success. You should check it out, it's by someone named Bradfor -- hey, wait. We see what's going on here.
The New York Yankees will end 2025 outside the top 10 in home runs
Torpedo, schmorpedo! Yes, the Yankees' first series of the season saw the sparks fly and birthed the "new era of baseball" with 15 total home runs, thanks in large part to innovative lumber construction. Never mind the fact that two of the three starters they victimized are already on the injured list. Never mind the fact that, aside from Aaron Judge, who could well hit 60, there's not a single other player on this team who is likely to hit more than 25. Yes, this team will win a ton of games, but they're simply not going to be anything special in the power department. -- AJ Mass
Why it's hot: Let's see here. At press time, the Yankees lead the sport in home runs. They led the sport in home runs last season as well. The torpedo bats you decry have been a bit of a talking point so far this season. And the Yankees also employ a guy named Judge who is capable of hitting 60-plus home runs in any given season.
Yet you predict not just that they won't lead the majors, or the AL, in home runs, but finish outside the top third of the majors. Yeah, that is as hot as one of those scorching summer days in the Bronx when the ball is flying out of Yankee Stadium. You know, the kind of day when the Yankees hit a ton of long balls on the way to leading the majors again.
August at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa
Are you sure you can handle this heat?
The Angels will win the AL West
The longest playoff drought in the majors is going to end. In fact, not only are the Los Angeles Angels -- a franchise that last played in the postseason in 2014 -- going to make the playoffs, they're going to win the AL West.
Yes, this says more about the division than it does about the Angels. But supporting evidence exists. The Athletics have no pitching. The Mariners have no hitting. The Astros have no Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. And while the Rangers are off to a hot start, it's a mirage: They're 8-4 and have been outscored by 12 runs.
That leaves the Angels. A potential stellar bullpen. A decent rotation. A stud catcher in Logan O'Hoppe. A healthy -- so far -- Mike Trout. And Zach Neto hasn't even played yet. Yep, 82-80 just might get it done. -- David Schoenfield
Why it's scorching: Let's start with some numbers: 99, 89, 89. Those are the numbers of losses the Angels have finished with the past three seasons. Now let's add some names: Jorge Soler, Kenley Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, Kyle Hendricks. Those are free agents the Angels added in the offseason. Soler is the youngest of the group at 33.
You've made a strong case that the rest of the AL West is going to be down (as did another hot taker earlier on) -- but predicting that a team coming off a 99-loss season is going to ride a few aging offseason acquisitions to a division crown is a take so hot another participant debated changing their own prediction after getting wind of yours. The only thing keeping this pick from being the hottest of the hot is that you finished off your case by predicting they will simply finish a couple games over .500.
The top three pitchers in NL Cy Young balloting will all come from the Phillies
Xavier Scruggs breaks down why he expects Phillies starter Zack Wheeler to be in contention for a Cy Young Award this season.
There have been several cases of teammates finishing one-two in the Cy Young balloting, and the 1974 Los Angeles Dodgers placed three among the top four, but three pitchers claiming the top spots? That has never happened. I'm predicting it does this season, as the Phillies' top four of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo is competitive with -- and, most importantly, more likely to remain healthy -- than that of the Dodgers. I'm going with a Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola final order. -- Tristan Cockcroft
Why it's scorching: You had us at "that has never happened." This prediction is what hot takes are all about: It's historic, it's bold and yet it somehow feels attainable. Just calling that the Phillies would finish 1-2-3 in the voting would have been enough, yet you went out and gave us a predicted order and a bonus name to watch, too.
There's only one thing wrong with this prediction. His name is Paul Skenes, he pitches on the other side of the Keystone State -- and he just might have something to say about a Phillies sweep.
Giants center fielder Jung Hoo Lee will win the NL batting title and finish in the top 5 in MVP voting
Lee's rookie season was cut short by injury after just 37 games, and if he had 15 fewer at bats in 2024, we would add NL Rookie of the Year to this prediction.
Lee is Luis Arraez with far more speed and extra-base potential. He sprays the ball, which makes him difficult to defend, and he bats behind Willy Adames and in front of Matt Chapman, which makes him more likely to: (A) get pitches to hit and (B) hit with runners on base. -- Tim Keown
Why it's scorching: We here at Hot Take Headquarters love a good two-pronged prediction, and this one is a doozy. Believe it or not, calling a batting title is not as bold as one might think. Lesser-known hitters leading the league in batting average happens. Just look at this list of recent league champions: Yandy Diaz, Yuli Gurriel, Tim Anderson, Jeff McNeil and Dee Gordon. But the second half of your prediction is where you truly level up the heat.
Last we checked, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Elly De La Cruz, Corbin Carroll, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Kyle Tucker all call the NL home. So, in essence, you are saying Hoo Lee -- someone many of our readers are scrambling to learn about as they digest this take -- will be better than all but four players on that list? That's as hot as a summer afternoon in the Florida sun. Now let's check back in August to see how it is holding up.