We don't know when the baseball season will begin, so we don't know how many games will ultimately be on the schedule. The shorter the schedule, the greater the likelihood of surprising results, of course. Similar to how a bad team can beat a good team in any one game (hey, even the Orioles beat the Yankees twice last season), a mediocre team might reel off a playoff run over a portion of a full season.
Let's look back at the past three seasons and check out the best stretch for each team over 100 games, 75 games and 50 games. How often does a team that is bad over 162 games have a potentially playoff-worthy run over a shorter span of games?
First off, here are the average improvements over each period of games compared to full-season winning percentage:
Best 100-game span: .038 (3.8 wins over 100 games)
Best 75-game span: .067 (5.1 wins over 75 games)
Best 50-game span: .102 (5.1 wins over 50 games)
As you would expect, the margin is greater over fewer games, with the improvement over 100 games relatively small.
We'll go year by year for each league. Note that the "also could have made it" label is for all teams that played at an equal or better winning percentage over the set period of games to the winning percentage of the worst actual playoff team from that league. This is meant to establish a potential playoff standard, although obviously the results over 50, 75 or 100 games wouldn't necessarily mirror what happened over 162.
2019
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Actual playoff teams: Astros (107 wins), Yankees (103), Twins (101), A's (97), Rays (96)
The 2019 American League is probably the worst example for a study like this, since the results were so divergent, with three 100-win teams, three 100-loss teams and only the Indians as a potential sixth playoff team. The Red Sox also finished over .500, but were still 12 games behind the Rays for the second wild card. In other words, there were good teams and bad teams -- and nobody in the middle.
Best over 100-game span: Yankees (70), Astros (67), A's (66), Indians (65), Twins (62)
Also could have made it (59 wins needed): None
Biggest improvement: Angels, +.096 (54-46)
The 93-win Indians do jump over the Rays in the top five, but of the league's eight losing teams, only the Angels (54 wins) and Rangers (52 wins) played over .500 for a 100-game span. The Angels' 54 wins are still five wins below the .593 overall winning percentage that earned the Rays the final playoff spot, so even 100 games was enough -- at least in the 2019 AL -- to separate the good teams.
Best over 75-game span: Astros (53), A's (52), Yankees (52), Indians (50), Twins (49)
Also could have made it: Rays (47), Red Sox (45)
Biggest improvement: Angels, +.129 (43-32)
Same story here, with the Red Sox jumping into the playoff picture and the Angels still falling short. The Angels' best stretch came from April 5 through July 28. At that point they were 5½ games behind the A's for the second wild card (while also trailing the Rays and Red Sox). They had played well for nearly a month after Tyler Skaggs' death on July 1, but collapsed the final two months (16-36) as their pitching fell apart.
Best over 50-game span: Astros (36), Indians (36), Yankees (36), A's (35), Twins (35)
Also could have made it: Rays (34), Red Sox (31), Angels (30), Rangers (30)
Biggest improvement: Angels, +.156 (30-20)
At 50 games, things start opening up a little more. While our power six teams still hold the six best records, it's not guaranteed that those teams would play their best over a specific 50-game stretch, so the Red Sox, Angels or Rangers may have been able to slip into a playoff spot. The Rangers finished 78-84 and the Angels 72-90, so this is our first indicator that a sub-.500 team over 162 games might do well enough over 50 games to make the playoffs.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Actual playoff teams: Dodgers (106), Braves (97), Nationals (93), Cardinals (91), Brewers (89)
The primary drama in the National League playoff race came in the NL Central, where the Cardinals began September 2½ games up on the Cubs and 6½ up on the Brewers, with the Cubs leading the wild-card race (the Brewers were tied with the Mets and a half-game behind the Diamondbacks and Phillies). The other wild-card contenders would fade and the Brewers surged past the Cubs when Chicago collapsed with a nine-game losing streak late in the season.
Best over 100-game span: Dodgers (68), Braves (67), Nationals (65), Cardinals (61), Cubs (57)
Also could have made it: Brewers (56), Mets (56), Diamondbacks (55)
Biggest improvement: Nationals, .076 (65-35)
The Cubs squeak past the Brewers and Mets for the fifth-best record -- maybe enough for Joe Maddon to keep his job (well, maybe if they also won the World Series). The Nationals, you'll remember, got off to that terrible 19-31 start. Their best 100 games came in their final 100 games, so while they finished with the NL's third-best record, they had played outstanding baseball since early June as the postseason kicked off.
Best over 75-game span: Dodgers (52), Braves (50), Nationals (50), Cardinals (49), Mets (47)
Also could have made it: Brewers (44), Cubs (43), Giants (43), Diamondbacks (42), Rockies (42)
Biggest improvement: Rockies, +.122 (42-33)
Interestingly, the Mets' best 75-game stretch also was their final 75 games. Manager Mickey Callaway got fired anyway. Since the Brewers made the playoffs with just 89 wins, the playoff bar here was fairly low, and given that the National League had more teams in the middle, that means more potential playoff teams. The surprise here is the Rockies, who finished 71-91, but were tied for a wild-card spot at the end of June.
Best over 50-game span: Dodgers (37), Nationals (35), Braves (34), Cardinals (34), Brewers/Cubs/Giants/Mets (32)
Also could have made it: Rockies (31), Diamondbacks (29), Phillies (29), Reds (27)
Biggest improvement: Rockies, +.182 (31-19)
This is how a short season could be vastly entertaining. Nearly every team in the playoff race the last week! A four-way tie for a wild card! The 2019 Giants finished 77-85, but for 50 games, from June 1 to July 28, they played .640 baseball -- that's a 103-win pace over 162 games.
As further evidence of the potential chaos of a shorter schedule, consider the worst 50-game stretches from the 2019 playoff teams:
Yankees: 30-20
Dodgers: 29-21
Astros: 28-22
Braves: 26-24
Twins: 25-25
A's: 24-26
Rays: 22-28
Brewers: 22-28
Cardinals: 20-30
Nationals: 19-31
There's that 19-31 stretch by the Nationals to start the season -- that's a 61-win pace. Their turnaround was one of the best in major league history. In early June, you wouldn't have bet on them winning the World Series, a great example of why many believe a 162-game schedule separates the best from the mediocre.
2018
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Actual playoff teams: Red Sox (108), Astros (103), Yankees (100), A's (97), Indians (91)
The 2018 American League once again featured three 100-win teams and three 100-loss teams. The Rays, with 90 wins, were the best non-playoff team, while the Mariners (89) and Angels (80) were in the 80s.
Best over 100-game span: Red Sox (70), Astros (66), A's (66), Yankees (65), Rays (62)
Also could have made it: Indians (60), Mariners (60)
Biggest improvement: White Sox, +.077 (46-54)
Just like in 2018, it's basically seven good teams and eight bad ones (or seven bad ones and the Angels). The Mariners got off to a great start and were in first place on June 13 and were still just a half-game out on July 3. But they went 34-42 after that while the Astros went 47-28 and the A's went 50-26 to surge past them.
Best over 75-game span: Red Sox (55), A's (54), Yankees (52), Astros (51), Rays (49)
Also could have made it: Indians (48), Mariners (48)
Biggest improvement: A's, +.121 (54-21)
The Rays once again edge out the Indians -- keep in mind that we would still need an AL Central winner, however. The Rays got off to a terrible start, 3-12 through 15 games, but had a great stretch run, going 36-19 over the final two months. Of the teams under .500, the Angels had the best 75-game stretch at 41-34 while the Twins were the only other losing team above .500 over 75 games.
Best over 50-game span: Red Sox (39), A's (38), Yankees (37), Astros (35), Mariners (35)
Also could have made it: Rays (34), Indians (32), Angels (28)
Biggest improvement: A's, +.161 (38-12)
The Mariners could have made the playoffs for the first time since 2001! This is a good time to recognize what we might end up with in a short season: a really bad division where no team finishes over .500. Recall the standings in the AL West in the strike-shortened 1994 season:
Rangers: 52-62
A's: 51-63
Mariners: 49-63
Angels: 47-68
Yuck. The strike eliminated the embarrassment of having a losing team make the playoffs, and while no division in 2020 should be that awful, there have been division winners barely over .500 in the wild-card era. The 2005 Padres won the NL West with an 82-80 record and the 2006 Cardinals won the NL Central at 83-78 (and went on to win the World Series).
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Actual playoff teams: Brewers (96), Cubs (95), Dodgers (92), Rockies (91), Braves (90)
This was fun because we had tie-breaker games for the division title in both the NL Central and NL West. The only other team close to making the postseason was the Cardinals, who finished 88-74, three wins short of the Rockies.
Best over 100-game span: Cubs (62), Dodgers (61), Rockies (59), Brewers (58), Braves/Phillies (57)
Also could have made it: Cardinals (56)
Biggest improvement: Reds, .086 (50-50)
The Phillies were in first place as late as Aug. 11, but went just 15-31 the rest of the way to finish 80-82. For the most part, you can see that 100 games doesn't change things all that much. Maybe 162 games is more than we need. OK, there can never be too much baseball, but I do believe that the argument that a shorter schedule -- say, 150 games or 144 games -- would not ruin the "integrity" of the regular season.
Best over 75-game span: Dodgers (48), Rockies (48), Brewers (47), Cubs (47), Cardinals/Diamondbacks (45)
Also could have made it: Braves (44), Phillies (43), Pirates (42)
Biggest improvement: Reds, +.133 (41-34)
The Reds were a bad team, finishing 67-95. Even though they had the most improvement over 100 games and 75 games, neither of those stretches would have been playoff-worthy. So based on this sample, even bad teams playing at their best don't really have what it takes to be playoff-caliber until we drop down to the 50-game mark.
Best over 50-game span: Dodgers (34), Cardinals (33), Rockies (33), Cubs (32), Brewers (32)
Also could have made it: Braves (31), Nationals (31), Phillies (31), Diamondbacks (30), Mets (30), Reds (29), Giants (28), Pirates (28)
Biggest improvement: Reds, +.166 (29-21)
In a more balanced league like the 2018 NL -- no 100-win teams, no 100-loss teams -- almost anything can happen over 50 games. Only the Marlins and Padres failed to play at a potential playoff level over a 50-game stretch at some point in the season.
Here are the worst 50-game stretches for all the playoff teams:
Red Sox: 30-20
Astros: 26-24
Yankees: 26-24
Cubs: 26-24
A's: 25-25
Indians: 25-25
Braves: 24-26
Brewers: 23-27
Dodgers: 23-27
Rockies: 22-28
Six of the 10 playoff teams were .500 or worse at some point over 50 games. The Dodgers' streak of seven consecutive division titles wouldn't be in jeopardy over a full 2020 season, but in a partial season? Anything can happen. (Yes, I just said that.)
2017
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Actual playoff teams: Indians (102), Astros (101), Red Sox (93), Yankees (91), Twins (85)
On the bright side, no team in the league lost 100 games. The chase for the second wild-card spot, however, was an indicator that more teams in contention does not necessarily make for an exciting playoff chase. On Sept. 5, for example, there were seven teams between 68 and 72 wins battling for that final playoff spot. A week later, the spread was still just 71 to 75. I don't remember it being all that exciting (other than rooting for your own team). In the end, the Twins pulled away to win by five games over the Rays, Royals and Angels, so even the final week proved anticlimactic.
Best over 100-game span: Indians (71), Astros (67), Red Sox (61), Yankees (56), Royals (56)
Also could have made it: Angels (54), Mariners (54), Blue Jays (53), Rangers (53), Rays (52), Twins (52)
Biggest improvement: Indians, +.080 (71-29)
Since the Twins' .525 winning percentage is so low, we get a large group of potential playoff teams. Fun factoid: It's possible that a team's best 100-game stretch actually produces a lower winning percentage than its mark over 162 games. It makes my brain hurt thinking about that. The Twins' best 100-game stretch produced a .520 winning percentage, less than their .525 overall mark. The Yankees' top 100-game period was .560, less than their final mark of .562. By the way, note that 71-29 stretch for the Indians. This included that memorable 22-game winning streak from Aug. 24 through Sept. 14. (After a loss, they won five more in a row and finished 33-4 over their final 37 games.)
Best over 75-game span: Indians (55), Astros (52), Red Sox (46), Yankees (46), Royals (45)
Also could have made it: Mariners (42), Rays (41), Twins (41), Angels (40), Rangers (40), Blue Jays (40)
Biggest improvement: Royals, +.106 (45-30)
This was the last hurrah of the Eric Hosmer/Lorenzo Cain teams for the Royals before those two departed in free agency. Unfortunately, they started 7-16, slumped in August and fell short.
Best over 50-game span: Indians (42), Astros (38), Red Sox (34), Royals (32), Yankees (32)
Also could have made it: Twins (31), Angels (29), Blue Jays (29), Orioles (29), Rays (29), Mariners (28), Rangers (28), A's (26)
Biggest improvement: Indians, +.210 (42-8)
Thirteen of the 15 teams qualify as potential playoff contenders, with the 67-win White Sox and 65-win Tigers, the two teams that didn't win at least 75 games, falling short of contention. Again: It's hard for a bad team to play well enough to make the playoffs over even 50 games. Here's another way to examine it: Over our three seasons, 26 teams lost 90 or more games. Of those 26, only four played at a 90-win pace over their best 50-game stretch: 2019 Angels, 2019 Rockies, 2018 Reds and 2017 Braves.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Actual playoff teams: Dodgers (104), Nationals (97), Diamondbacks (93), Cubs (92), Rockies (87)
The Dodgers and Nationals ran away with division titles, the Cubs pulled ahead of the Brewers with about a week to go, and the Diamondbacks comfortably won the first wild card. The second wild card came down to the final weekend, with the Rockies clinching in Game 161 and finishing one game ahead of the 86-win Brewers. The Cardinals were the only other team to win more than 77 games.
Best over 100-game span: Dodgers (77), Cubs (62), Nationals (62), Diamondbacks (60), Rockies (58)
Also could have made it: Cardinals (56), Brewers (54), Marlins (54)
Biggest improvement: Dodgers, +.128
This was the season the Dodgers went 44-7 over one stretch and looked like they might threaten the single-season wins record only to have an 11-game losing streak. Their gain of 128 percentage points compared to their overall mark is the best improvement in the study over 100 games.
Best over 75-game span: Dodgers (60), Cubs (49), Diamondbacks (48), Nationals (48), Rockies (47)
Also could have made it: Cardinals (44), Brewers (43), Marlins (43), Pirates (40)
Biggest improvement: Dodgers, +.158
The Marlins show up as a potential playoff team. They finished 77-85 behind NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna's 37-homer season, but didn't have enough pitching over the long haul.
Best over 50-game span: Dodgers (43), Diamondbacks (34), Cubs (33), Nationals (33), Rockies (33)
Also could have made it: Marlins (31), Cardinals (30), Braves (29), Brewers (28), Pirates (28)
Biggest improvement: Dodgers, +.218 (43-7)
The Marlins jumped an impressive 145 points thanks to a 31-19 run.
Again, the worst 50-game stretches for the playoff teams:
Red Sox: 26-24
Nationals: 26-24
Indians: 25-25
Astros: 24-26
Dodgers: 24-26
Cubs: 23-27
Yankees: 21-29
Rockies: 21-29
Twins: 20-30
Diamondbacks: 20-30
That's pretty interesting -- none of the playoff teams would have been playoff locks if they were judged by their worst 50-game stretch.
What does all this mean for 2020? Note that of our 90 "new" playoff spots, only 12 go to a team that actually missed the postseason that year, with another seven non-playoff teams tied for a final playoff spot. For the most part, the best teams are the best teams -- whether it's 162 games, 100 games, 75 games or 50 games. Only three sub-.500 teams had one of their league's five "best" stretches:
• 2019 Giants (77-85): 32 wins in 50 games
• 2018 Phillies (80-82): 57 wins in 100 games
• 2017 Royals (80-82): Top five over 100, 75 and 50 games
Of course, here's the beauty once baseball does start: We won't know if a surprise team is actually a surprise team or just a good team that was better than everyone believed.