Spring training camps are underway, which means it is time to look at the state of baseball. As part of our 2025 MLB season preview, ESPN's Buster Olney is bringing back his positional ranking series, in which he surveyed those around the industry to help him rank the top 10 players at every position.
Today, we rank the best of the best at first base.
The objective of this exercise is to identify the best players for the 2025 season, not who might be best in five years or over their career. We will roll out a position per day over the next two weeks. Here's the rest of the schedule: catchers (2/17), second basemen (2/19), third basemen (2/20), shortstops (2/21), corner outfielders (2/24), center fielders (2/25), designated hitters (2/26), starting pitchers (2/27) and relievers (2/28).
When you peruse the names of just about all of the first basemen in the top 10 on this list, you might notice a common denominator beyond the position they play. Freddie Freeman is one of the best left-handed hitters of his generation, but he throws right-handed. Bryce Harper bats left but throws right. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. throws right-handed and so does Pete Alonso.
In fact, only one of the top 10 first basemen is a left-handed thrower, which is strange because of the natural advantages a left-handed thrower has at the position -- quicker tags on pickoffs and better angles on throws to other bases. Any list of the most aesthetically pleasing aspects of the sport would have to include the defensive work of the best and smoothest first basemen in history, from Keith Hernandez and Don Mattingly to J.T. Snow and Anthony Rizzo.
And yet the number of left-handed throwing first basemen has dropped significantly since 2000, as the numbers dug out by Sarah Langs show:
2001: 1,905 (games played by left-handed throwing 1B)
2006: 1,589
2011: 1,836
2016: 1,356
2021: 944
2024: 1,173
A platoon of evaluators -- from major league coaches to managers to general managers to those in player development, to Don Mattingly, who was one of the best left-handed throwing first basemen ever -- were asked about this trend and offered little beyond surprise. "I have no idea," one front-office type said. "It's not tied to any larger strategy."
Another texted, "I can't think of a reason. Maybe it's just random?"
One staffer noted that many first basemen are converted from other positions, often in the infield. Harper is an example of this: He was a catcher as an amateur, was shifted to the outfield by the Nationals, then moved to first base after having elbow surgery.
Matt Olson throws right-handed. Paul Goldschmidt throws right-handed. Both reigning Gold Glove winners, Christian Walker and Carlos Santana, throw right-handed.
Go figure.
Now here are the Top 10 first basemen, based on feedback from evaluators:
Top 10 first baseman
1. Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
With Ichiro missing unanimous election into the Hall of Fame by one vote, one of the natural questions continues to be: Which position players have a shot to get 100% of the vote? Freeman seemingly has a shot, because he has checked every box -- a World Series legacy, with one of the most memorable postseason performances of all time this past fall and he has been a part of two championship teams.
He's won an MVP award and has eight top-10 finishes. He's an eight-time All-Star. He leads all active players in hits, runs, RBIs and doubles, and he's probably got years to play. He has been a high-end defender. He is 35 years old and could be among the last players to reach 3,000 hits. He has had 11 seasons of 21 or more homers. His Adjusted OPS+ is 142.
2. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
In the aftermath of Anthony Rendon's most recent injury, there has been a lot of conversation about whether Anthony Rendon's contract with the Angels is the worst ever for a team in the way that it plays out. Well, you could make a case that the Phillies' signing of Bryce Harper is among the best ever.
This is Year 7 of his 13-year, $335 million deal, and in his first six years, Harper generated 23.3 WAR (despite dealing with significant injuries) and 152 homers along with signature moments and a deep postseason run in 2022. From day one, he fostered a deep connection with the Phillies fan base, serving the organization and baseball well. He's 32 years old and likely has great years ahead of him.
Speaking of legacy: This will be the year that Harper will club his 350th homer, compile his 1,000th RBI and collect his 400th career double.
3. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
If Juan Soto was the most discussed player of 2024, dominating for the Yankees before he signed his record-setting $765 million contract (plus major perks) with the Mets, well, 2025 could be the year of Vladdy Jr. Now that Guerrero's deadline for signing a long-term deal with the Blue Jays has passed, it is likely that the speculation about whether the Jays will trade him this summer will grow throughout May, June and July. If he stays healthy and follows up this past year's strong season with another, he's bound to blow past the salaries paid to other free agent first basemen in recent years.
Over his past 132 games this past season, he batted .346, with a .412 OBP and .588 SLG., posting 69 extra-base hits and 73 strikeouts. He turns 26 next month. No wonder the Mets talked internally about finding a way to land him and team him with Juan Soto for years to come.
4. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
In what was a down season for him in 2024, Olson still had an OPS+ of 118, with 29 homers, 37 doubles and 98 RBIs -- and that's with many of the stars around him in Atlanta's lineup missing time on the injured list. That'll change in the season ahead. By the way: Olson has played in every game since signing with the Braves, and in all of his team's games in five of the past seven seasons.
5. Pete Alonso, New York Mets
No player had his skill set more dissected this winter than Alonso did as his free agency dragged out. He is probably a better defender than what the perception is: He led all first baseman -- by far -- in Fangraphs' scoop metric at first base, and his -3 in defensive runs saved is actually not that far removed from the first baseman he has emulated in his work, Paul Goldschmidt. Alonso's baserunning numbers haven't been good during his career, but before this past year, they weren't terrible either.
There are a couple of things at which Alonso excels, and they carry high value. First, he posts -- Alonso has missed just 24 regular-season games in six years. And his power is elite: Only Aaron Judge has hit more homers during Alonso's MLB career, and Alonso ranks seventh among all hitters in ISO.
6. Christian Walker, Houston Astros
He's won three straight Gold Gloves and while he is not a pure pull hitter like new teammates Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes, the right-handed hitting Walker should be able to take advantage of the Crawford Boxes in Houston's Daikin Park.
7. Luis Arraez, San Diego Padres
He's one of those players who looks better in the summer than he does in the winter. You can just imagine what is said about him in player evaluation meetings in front offices throughout the sport in the offseason: He doesn't hit for power, he doesn't run, he doesn't have a natural position. But in the summer, here's what is said about him: He's going to hit the ball hard somewhere.
8. Willson Contreras, St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis's signing of Contreras to play catcher has turned out to be an enormous mistake, but he is going to play to first base this year and this much has always been true: He flat-out rakes. Contreras has a .353 OBP and 152 homers in his career, and it stands to reason that the Cardinals will get some bang for their bucks now that he's moving out from behind home plate.
9. Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks
One of the biggest questions for Cleveland is: How will they make up for Naylor's production after trading him to Arizona? Naylor belted 68 home runs with a combined OPS+ of 123 over the past three seasons and is eligible for free agency in the fall.
10. Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays
He can flat-out rake -- he hit .330 in 2023 -- before his OPS dropped 277 points this past season.
Honorable mentions
Paul Goldschmidt, New York Yankees: The Yankees have bet that the 2022 NL MVP will play more like he did in the second half of this past season rather than his rough first half.
Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals: He posted an Adjusted OPS+ of 111 in his first full season, and given the improved depth of the K.C. lineup, he could reach 100 RBI this year after driving in 97 this past year.
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox: Since being drafted by the Red Sox in 2018, he's played 100 games in a season once -- in 2023, when he played in 132, clubbing 24 homers and generating a .490 slugging percentage. This will be an important season for him to demonstrate he can stay on the field, because he will be eligible for arbitration for the first time next winter.
Nathaniel Lowe, Washington Nationals: His year-to-year OBP the past four seasons before being traded from the Rangers this offseason: .357, .358, .360, .361.
Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs: His first season as the Cubs' first baseman went well, and as he gains experience, he's bound to improve.