With one month remaining until spring training arrives, there is still plenty of work left to be done this MLB offseason.
Eight of Kiley McDaniel's top 25 free agents entering the winter have yet to sign, and trade candidates including Nolan Arenado and Luis Robert Jr. have yet to be dealt. Who could be the next star to move, and when will the next major deals go down?
Here is the latest intel our MLB reporters are hearing about the biggest names and storylines left this offseason, starting with two premium free agent sluggers still searching for a team.
What's the latest you are hearing on Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman?
Buster Olney: The perception from some of the teams involved is that Scott Boras, who represents Bregman, might simply be waiting for someone to get closer to the financial terms they wanted -- at a time when some execs think Bregman's market has been largely defined. The Giants signed one of his peers, Matt Chapman, to a six-year, $156 million deal, and that is just about what the Astros offered. Now the Astros have moved on and the Red Sox, Tigers and Blue Jays all have varying degrees of interest. One of the execs speculates that in the end, the Jays are in position to offer the most money, given their level of desperation. Now Bregman has choices to make.
Alonso's reported offer with the Mets underscores the reality of his market: All along, he has been worth more to the Mets than to any other team. Some rival evaluators speculate that eventually, he'll work out some kind of deal to go back, because there aren't a lot of teams ready to invest a nine-figure deal in a first baseman.
Jeff Passan: All it takes for either to sign is one team. And in Alonso's case, the obvious team is the Mets. They've got leverage -- there are no others in the market for a first baseman at $25 million-plus a year -- and they can squeeze Alonso by threatening to move on to other options. The Mets have discussed the possibility of other free agents taking first-base reps, sources said.
With a long-term contract not materializing for him, Alonso could continue to pursue a deal with the Mets or simply wait. Let's remember: When the preferred markets did not materialize for four Boras clients last winter, they signed on Feb. 28 (Cody Bellinger), March 2 (Matt Chapman), March 18 (Blake Snell) and March 26 (Jordan Montgomery). What we know is that time tends to erode deal length. While there are exceptions -- Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Prince Fielder all signed nine-year-plus deals in February or March -- Bregman still wants years, and with no team inclined to meet his price yet, a February signing could place him on the Chapman track. Should Bregman's term shorten, other teams theoretically could jump into the fray like Arizona did with Corbin Burnes. But February tends not to be a month for surprise $30 million-a-year expenditures, leaving the teams known to have been engaged so far as the distinct favorites the longer these free agencies last.
The outfield market is still stocked with big names. How are you hearing it could play out?
Passan: The biggest names are Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar. Beyond that, Jesse Winker and Randal Grichuk are coming off excellent 2024s while Austin Hays, Alex Verdugo and Harrison Bader are veterans likely to wind up on Opening Day rosters. The teams that have entertained signing an outfielder include the Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels and Cincinnati Reds. The Kansas City Royals need another bat, the Pittsburgh Pirates could use a solid corner option, and the A's just need to spend on someone. The majority of those teams have playoff aspirations -- and now, as much as when the hot stove was aflame at the winter meetings, is when pennants can be won.
That's because whoever signs Santander, coming off a 44-homer season, will be better in 2025. And whoever signs Profar, he of the .380 on-base percentage last season, will also be better in 2025. Outfielders haven't panicked yet because the combination of need and contending teams should get them paid. Winker and Grichuk will find solid platoon homes in hopes of fuller-time at-bats, and while Hays, Verdugo and Bader are staring at one-year deals, the possibility of solid seasons on relatively low-cost deals makes each appealing in his own right.
Alden Gonzalez: There's a reason it's the middle of January and the likes of Santander, Profar and Luis Robert Jr. (via trade) are still available: The asking prices are too high, at least relative to what the market is dictating. Santander, a 30-year-old who grades poorly on defense and possesses a lot of swing-and-miss at the plate, was reportedly seeking a five-year deal at the start of the offseason. Profar, a 31-year-old who beat his career OPS by 123 points last year, sought three. The Chicago White Sox's trade demand for Robert, meanwhile, had been described as too rich by potential suitors.
But there's a silver lining in all of this. Santander and Profar, both highly impactful players for vastly different reasons, could find robust markets if they're willing to accept shorter deals with higher annual values, which at this point seems likely. The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels are among the teams that have been linked to Santander, to varying degrees, and could still use outfield help. A reunion between Profar and the Padres, meanwhile, has been seen by some as an inevitability.
As for Robert -- the White Sox can afford to wait. He is controllable for up to three more years and played in just 100 games last season. But there are enough aspiring contenders with unfinished business that perhaps someone meets their asking price.
Why have relievers taken so long to sign, and which teams are in the market for top bullpen options?
Jesse Rogers: The pace of the reliever market is being slowed by a belief across many front offices that relievers are interchangeable. And that includes closers who are prized possessions during the season -- but then get discarded in November. Just look at All-Star Kyle Finnegan, who was non-tendered by the Nationals and is still in search of a team for evidence. The Reds, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets and Chicago Cubs are among teams still looking for bullpen help.
Olney: It's all about supply and demand, and it's working against this group of players. There are so many unsigned relievers that teams are operating under the assumption that if they don't get one at the price they want, they can just wait and eventually they'll get a good reliever at a better number.
Should we expect any more big trades this offseason?
Rogers: Yes, there's enough chatter and players available that it could still lead to a major deal or two going down before April. Remember, Dylan Cease was moved on the eve of the season last year so whether it's Cease -- again -- or Nolan Arenado or one of the Mariners' fantastic starters, there's still work to be done on the trade front, and it could happen at any point between now and Opening Day.
Passan: The answer is yes, but more because it's just in executives' nature to want to deal. There are no obvious "gotta happen" trades. Unless a can't-miss opportunity presents itself, San Diego will hold on to Cease. Arenado's market isn't teeming. Seattle doesn't want to move its starters. On top of that, St. Louis' inaction this winter has surprised teams that thought multiple Cardinals would move, normally active Tampa Bay hasn't wheeled and dealed quite like it typically does, and Minnesota has entertained plenty but consummated nothing. So when you have all of those teams and all of these opportunities and free agents who are holding firm (for now) on prices, teams are going to get a little twitchy. And that's when trades happen.
Will the Yankees and Dodgers make any more big moves?
Gonzalez: The Dodgers' only remaining need -- outside of bringing back Clayton Kershaw and holding out hope for Roki Sasaki, further bolstering a deep group of starting pitchers -- is in the back end of their bullpen. And "need" is actually a stretch. With Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Anthony Banda, Ryan Brasier and Alex Vesia, the Dodgers have six high-leverage arms to start the season. Add Dustin May, who's out of options and eventually could get bumped from the rotation, and that makes seven. But they'll be there if Tanner Scott's market falls and they can be opportunistic on another high-leverage arm. They just don't need to force anything here. And given how Andrew Friedman has historically approached the bullpen market, they probably won't.
Jorge Castillo: The Yankees quickly executed a series of moves in their pivot from Juan Soto, raising the floor on a roster that was top-heavy in 2024, but they could use either a second baseman or third baseman to complete their offseason. If the Yankees acquire a third baseman, Jazz Chisholm Jr. would play second base, or third if they acquire a second baseman. DJ LeMahieu remains on the roster for $30 million over the next two seasons, giving the Yankees a prominent internal option for third base, but the veteran's dreadful, injury-plagued 2024 campaign does not suggest he's worthy of an every-day role entering his age-36 campaign. Other possibilities on the 40-man roster include Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Cabrera and Jorbit Vivas. Expect the Yankees to at least add depth at one of the two positions.
The Orioles, Braves and Mariners have been among the quietest teams this offseason. Should we expect a big move from any of them?
Olney: The Braves' scuttled deal with Jeff Hoffman was something they considered very early in the offseason, and the intention was to use Hoffman as a starting pitcher. After that fell apart, Atlanta seems poised to go into spring training with Ian Anderson and Grant Holmes -- who are both out of options and can't be sent to the minors without being passed through waivers -- competing for a spot or two at the end of their rotation. It wouldn't be a surprise if they added one of the many relievers available. The Orioles and Mariners continue to operate as if they have little financial flexibility and the longer they wait, the more likely it may be that the market prices drop into an acceptable range.
Rogers: I expect to see at least one big move made, but I'm not sure all three are going to make splashy headlines. At least Baltimore did something to replace Corbin Burnes by signing Charlie Morton as a needed veteran rotation addition, and the Braves will get a boost from within by getting Spencer Strider back. But how are the Mariners going to improve an offense in need of more production? Moving a starter is the best way to go about it, and the Mariners have plenty they could move. I pick Seattle for the biggest move left among the three.
Which completed moves that fans might have overlooked have created the most buzz in the industry?
Gonzalez: Some have celebrated the Astros' return for Kyle Tucker, getting a young, productive corner infielder in Isaac Paredes, a recent first-round pick in Cam Smith and a depth arm in Hayden Wesneski for a pending free agent. Others aren't quite as enthusiastic. But here's one thing almost everyone agrees on: Kyle Daniel Tucker is one of the sport's best players when healthy. And though it might only be for one season, the Cubs did well to get him in their hopes to win a very winnable National League Central.
Castillo: The A's finally spent some money this winter (they apparently faced some pressure to do so), which is a positive development, but their three-year, $67 million investment in Luis Severino sent shock waves through the industry. The deal -- the largest in franchise history -- was widely viewed as a significant overpay, and it set the stage for a few contracts that surpassed expectations for other free agent starting pitchers. Then again, the A's, playing in a minor league ballpark for at least the next three seasons, will have to essentially pay a tax to lure free agents until their move to Las Vegas is complete.
What else are you hearing?
Passan: Of the remaining starting pitching options, right-hander Jack Flaherty is clearly at the top of the market and right-hander Nick Pivetta next in line. Salaries for starters have been exceptional all winter, and with no qualifying offer attached to him and a tremendous 2024 season, Flaherty is still going to cash in, though it could be on a shorter-term deal. Pivetta was saddled with a qualifying offer, which has hindered his market, but teams still adore his stuff, and he'll find a rotation home before pitchers and catchers report.
Olney: There is an assumption among other teams that Jordan Montgomery and Marcus Stroman will move at some point, but there are execs who believe that won't happen until the Diamondbacks and Yankees agree to swallow a lot of money to make a deal happen. The Stroman talks will be greatly complicated by his vesting option: If he throws 140 innings in 2025, he'll have a player option to make $18.3 million next year. One evaluator held up Martin Perez, recently signed by the White Sox for $5 million, as a market comparable; if the D-Backs and Yankees want to move Montgomery, Stroman, they may have to pay down their respective salaries closer to that range.
Passan: It's going to be a very busy month leading up to the mid-February opening of camps. There are 100 or so players in search of major league deals. Perhaps half of them will get one. And the rest will be forced to take non-roster invitations to spring camps.