Player movement, so far this hot stove season, has tilted heavily in the direction of pitching. That's true both in terms of money spent and the sheer amount of activity.
Of course, the single biggest move of the offseason involved a hitter, with Juan Soto's mind-bending contract with the Mets shifting a whole of slew of runs and wins in the direction of Citi Field.
Now that Soto is off the board, where does that slot the Mets in the pecking order of offenses around baseball? Are they elite? Who is? Who might join the club?
Using a combination of my team forecasts and some detail from the Steamer Projection system, I've pegged the top 10 offenses right now, with the emphasis on right now. We just wrapped up the winter meetings, and after Soto, most of the free agent board for hitters remains unsettled. And while there has been plenty of trade smoke in the rumor mill, we haven't seen a great deal of fire.
These rankings will change before we reach spring training. Beyond slotting the team offenses as they stand, we'll speculate at what those changes might look like.
Note: Teams are ranked by a hitting index based on each club's current park-neutral run projection. The average index is 100 -- one standard deviation above that is 110, two above is 120, etc.
Top 10 offenses
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Hitting index: 119.2
Best trait: They haven't done anything yet on the hitting side.
Worst trait: Batting average.
The Dodgers are basically good at everything. Well, they project to rank 26th in singles, so there you go. Even so, their worst trait doesn't mean they are bad even in this area -- L.A. ranks eighth in projected average. It's just their least-great category, and even this minor pockmark is by design, not error.
The depth chart is short an above-average bat, and that's where their best trait comes into play. Because whether it's a reunion with Teoscar Hernandez or a pivot to someone such as Anthony Santander, L.A. will be fine. Even if the Dodgers do nothing, they'll still be the favorite to win the World Series.
One suggestion: Sign Hernandez. There's no reason not to.
2. Atlanta Braves
Hitting index: 115.4
Best trait: Star power.
Worst trait: Depth.
In the hitter-level version of our hitting index, the Braves have five players projected to land in the 110-or-better region, led by star Ronald Acuna Jr., whose precise return date from knee surgery is unknown.
This projection shows positive regression for Sean Murphy, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson and Austin Riley, and more playing time this time around for the likes of Riley, Ozzie Albies and Acuna.
There's a lot of drop-off after the core group, and given last season's injury trouble, you'd like to see some bench additions if only so the Braves don't need to ride a set lineup quite as hard.
If healthy, the Braves should be one of the game's most power-laden and dynamic attacks -- just as we thought they'd be in 2024.
One suggestion: Target midlevel veteran corner outfielders, both to bide the time until Acuna is ready and to upgrade the bench once he is. Alex Verdugo, Max Kepler -- someone along those lines.
3. New York Mets
Hitting index: 114.1
Best trait: Juan Soto
Worst trait: Someone for Soto to protect.
It's amazing what adding the game's most dominant on-base player can do for a team's outlook. One thing the forecasts don't quite capture is the upside represented by the Mets' young position players -- and not only Mark Vientos.
Some of those youngsters have a lot to prove after injuries or underperformance in 2024, but it's an exciting group that includes Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuna, Ronny Mauricio and Drew Gilbert.
Still, there's a Pete Alonso-sized hole in the lineup, as the ideal guy to hit behind Soto. (Soto will hit behind Francisco Lindor, which is going to be something to see.) The Mets will be fine either way, and also have to worry about the defensive profile of their position group.
But if you're a Mets fan, aren't you aching to watch Alonso hit behind Soto for the next four or five years?
One suggestion: If not Alonso, then Christian Walker and if not him, Paul Goldschmidt. Really, though, just sign Alonso. Since the Mets are the one team that doesn't have to worry about his qualifying offer, they should be in good position to make it happen.
4. Houston Astros
Hitting index: 111.3
Best trait: The Kyle Tucker-Yordan Alvarez tandem.
Worst trait: Rumors about breaking up the Tucker-Alvarez tandem.
The Astros' offense looks strong now as it has been for the past decade. But things are fraying and a rebuild might be on the horizon. The ideal scenario for 2025 is that Tucker, subject of recent trade rumors, stays put, Houston reaches terms to retain Alex Bregman and lands one of the aforementioned free agent first basemen. That version of the Astros will be favored to repeat in the AL West.
The Astros' depth chart looks light on walks, which makes someone such as Goldschmidt a potentially great fit. And Goldy might rejuvenate more than a little with the Crawford Boxes to aim at in half of his games.
One suggestion: Recognize that the window is closing. You're not going to keep it open by dealing Tucker for lesser veterans. There is going to be a crash, especially if Bregman doesn't re-sign, and a plunge into mediocrity isn't going to keep it from happening. Keep Tucker at least until the All-Star break, then reassess if the season is going off the rails.
UPDATE: Alas, the Astros traded Tucker to the Cubs after this story published.
5. San Diego Padres
Hitting index: 110.2
Best trait: Bat on ball.
Worst trait: Too many holes.
The Padres are a good example of a team whose offensive forecast is propped up because they have a terrific group of returning regulars, and because so many teams still have their heavy lifting to do this winter. San Diego is certainly one of those clubs.
Unsurprisingly, led by Luis Arraez, the Padres' attack projects to pace the majors in lowest strikeout rate and highest batting average. (And singles ... take that Dodgers!) Fernando Tatis Jr. is an MVP contender, Jackson Merrill's potential is off the charts and Manny Machado remains a productive future Hall of Famer.
But the Padres don't have a clear starter on the roster for left field, catcher or even designated hitter. GM A.J. Preller won't sit still for long, we know that, but the foundation for San Diego remains strong.
One suggestion: As good as the Padres look in the batting average department, only one team has a lower projected walks total. Since they have voids at DH and a corner outfield spot, this is one team in which a take-and-rake masher would fit perfectly.
6. New York Yankees
Hitting index: 108.4
Best trait: Ball goes far.
Worst trait: Not enough contact.
Even without Soto, the Yankees project to lead the majors in homers and are third in isolated power. Only the Dodgers project to draw more walks. But this team needs to focus on replacing as much of Soto's on-base percentage as it can. Preferably, that would be in the form of gap-to-gap hitters that balance their profile with more batting average.
In terms of hitters, the Yankees have yet to respond to the loss of Soto. It can -- and should -- only get better from here.
One suggestion: Tucker is a great fit, as is Bregman. They wouldn't just push the Yankees higher on this list, but they would complement what the Yankees already have on hand, potentially giving them a more consistent attack in 2024.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
Hitting index: 106.8
Best trait: Depth.
Worst trait: Lack of longballs.
Arizona has the makings of a dynamic, all-around attack. The D-backs' profile right now looks strong in average (third) and walks (10th). We know the team is athletic (first in triples, ninth in steals). The only thing missing is a dynamic cleanup hitter. It's nothing a new first baseman can't fix.
One suggestion: The Diamondbacks are disciplined when it comes to spending, and probably aren't eager to surrender a draft pick to land a pricey free agent who received a qualifying offer. But Alonso would look so, so good in this lineup.
8. Baltimore Orioles
Hitting index: 106.4
Best trait: Trajectory
Worst trait: Steals?
Beginning with the worst trait, there isn't a ton of stolen bases on the roster right now. A problem? Hardly. First of all, keep in mind that these forecasts are strictly about offensive production. Coming in eighth isn't bad, but Baltimore's position group overall -- defense included -- ranks second, behind the Dodgers. Value isn't only created with the bat.
Also, lest we forget, this is still a very young group. This forecast is solid but few teams, if any, have more collective breakout potential. Baltimore needed to make a couple of complementary moves to add righty bats and they've already done that, landing Tyler O'Neill and Gary Sanchez.
One suggestion: Focus on the rotation. The Orioles are the team that can most justifiably count on internal growth to improve their offense. All the pieces are in place.
9. Cleveland Guardians
Hitting index: 105.3
Best trait: Low strikeouts.
Worst trait: Payroll limitations.
The Guardians have the second-lowest projected whiff total behind the Padres, and though they don't have a lot of elite thumpers other than Jose Ramirez, they have a well-balanced attack that features a little bit of everything and solid depth.
It's a really young group that, like Baltimore, can get better organizationally, as Kyle Manzardo, Travis Bazzana, Jhonkensy Noel and others continue to move to the forefront.
One suggestion: Don't mess with it. The Andres Gimenez trade broke up the game's premier defensive middle-infield combo. Now Cleveland shows up as at least considering getting even younger in the form of moving Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas. Don't do it. This team is so close.
10. Philadelphia Phillies
Hitting index: 105.1
Best trait: Bryce Harper
Worst trait: Declining upside
Harper remains the cornerstone and the end of that status is not yet in sight. But the Phillies are getting older, and that's reflected in some mildly declining forecasts and an overall feeling that while there is plenty of dependable production on hand, there isn't a great deal of breakout potential.
The younger lineup regulars the Phillies have come up with the past few years -- Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh -- have established themselves as solid contributors. They aren't stars, though, and might just be what they are at this point. Hopes that their improvement would offset the decline of the older hitters are dimming.
One suggestion: Soto would have been nice. Tucker would be great. That's really the level the Phillies need to target, because an influx of dynamism might be the only thing their offense can do to keep pace with fellow NL behemoths such as the Dodgers, Braves and Mets -- the latter two in their own division.
Four teams that could crash the party
Milwaukee Brewers (Hitting index: 104.3): The Brewers are perfectly positioned to add an older, slugging first baseman on a short-term deal, someone who can augment what they got from Rhys Hoskins a year ago. That is probably the best avenue for replacing the power void opened by Willy Adames' departure. This is another club Goldschmidt fits with, and he has always raked at American Family Field.
Toronto Blue Jays (Hitting index: 104.2): The Jays have too many position regulars at this point who carry a disproportionate amount of their value on defense. That dynamic became even more stark with the addition of Gimenez. Any of the top bats on the market can be made to fit this roster, though adding someone such as Alonso might mean shifting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back across the diamond.
Chicago Cubs (Hitting index: 103.4): If Cody Bellinger isn't going to morph back into his MVP mode -- or if he's traded -- this is a club that lacks an offensive centerpiece. Some good hitters and a gaggle of near-ready prospects are on hand, so Chicago doesn't need to go wild. But let's just say that rumors attaching the Cubs to a pursuit of Tucker make a lot of sense.
Texas Rangers (Hitting index: 101.3): The Rangers' forecast is dragged down by cautious playing time projections for some key players who were injured in 2024, not the least of which is Corey Seager. If Texas' hitters are healthy in 2025 -- admittedly a big if -- positive regression and improvement from the likes of Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung and Evan Carter will propel the Rangers' attack safely back into the top 10. Patience and luck are all that are required.