2024-25 MLB free agent superlatives: Adames, Soto, more

We've entered the long, winding offseason of rumors, negotiations and posturing that is MLB free agency -- a process that ran deep into spring training last year before the remaining big-name players finally signed.

Money will be spent -- ESPN's Kiley McDaniel projects about $3.6 billion in guarantees to be handed out this offseason, compared with just over $3 billion last offseason -- but, as history has shown us, it won't all be wisely spent. That's just the nature and risk of free agency; even the top free agents aren't guaranteed to produce instant value. Consider what happened with the top 10 free agents of the previous three years in their first season after signing (not including any players coming over from Japan):

2021-22 offseason
Free agent year combined WAR: 53.2
First season after signing combined WAR: 37.9

2022-23 offseason
Free agent year combined WAR: 52.5
First season after signing combined WAR: 28.4

2023-24 offseason
Free agent year combined WAR: 44.3
First season after signing combined WAR: 25.4

Last year was disastrous despite Shohei Ohtani (9.2 WAR) and Matt Chapman (7.1) being outstanding. Pitchers Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Sonny Gray and Lucas Giolito declined from 20.9 combined Baseball-Reference WAR in 2023 to just 2.7 WAR in 2024 -- and 2.1 of that was from Snell, one of those players who signed late. In fact, Snell had a big enough second half to prompt him to exercise his opt-out clause and become a free agent once again.

Let's dig into some of the subplots surrounding the 2024-25 free agent class with a special edition of an old favorite: free agent superlatives.

Player most likely to hire a Swiss banker: Juan Soto

Some years, it's not clear who might get the highest contract -- say, Bryce Harper or Manny Machado in the 2018-19 offseason or Carlos Correa or Corey Seager in 2021-22. As with Ohtani last season, however, Soto won't have any competition for that honor and the goal for him and agent Scott Boras will be to top Ohtani's record-breaking deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, which MLB valued at $460.8 million in present-day dollars (since so much of the $700 million deal was deferred).

Like Harper and Machado, Soto is a young free agent, entering his age-26 season. Given his elite hitting skills, that makes him about as safe as any superstar free agent in recent history -- perhaps even more so than Ohtani (excluding Ohtani's unparalleled marketing value). Is there any way a long-term deal for Soto could backfire? Sure, injuries are always possible, even for position players. Ken Griffey Jr.'s last great season came at 30 years old, as he had trouble staying healthy in his 30s. Mike Trout's $426.5 million extension signed in 2019 has been a disaster, as he has been unable to stay on the field. Soto, at least, has been a durable player throughout his career. His defense is already problematic, so it seems unlikely he'll remain in the outfield past age 30 or so. That's not a deal-breaker either; if he's Edgar Martinez in his 30s, that will work just fine for the team that lands him.

Starting pitcher to roll the dice on: Blake Snell

Snell entered free agency last winter coming off his second Cy Young Award but didn't get the long-term offers he wanted and signed late in spring training with the San Francisco Giants -- one of a number of Boras' miscalculations for his clients that resulted in lower-than-expected contracts. Indeed, with seven of McDaniel's top 11 free agents this offseason, Boras has the opportunity for redemption.

Snell finished 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 20 starts and 104 innings in 2024. So why would things be different this year? It's the same pitcher, with the same weaknesses (concerns about durability, strike-throwing and consistency) and strengths (best lefty stuff in the game out of maybe Tarik Skubal, ability to dominate for stretches). Well, Boras and Snell probably will play it differently this time, but it's also important to highlight what Snell did after returning July 9 from injury: a 1.23 ERA and .382 OPS allowed over his 14 final starts.

That stretch continues a career-long trend of Snell's where he pitches much better in the second half -- and is capable of these epic unhittable runs: see 2018 (1.25 ERA over final 16 starts), 2021 (1.83 ERA over final eight starts), 2022 (2.19 ERA over final 14 starts) and 2023 (1.23 ERA over final 21 starts).

That's why it's worth rolling the dice on him. All starting pitchers are risky, but Snell, if he's on one of those late-season rolls, is the one who could be a difference-maker in the playoffs. He's a guy to gamble on, maybe not necessarily to get a team to the playoffs, but for a team that feels confident it's already going to be there and needs that extra shot of October espresso.

Player most likely to turn the Dodgers into the new Evil Empire: Roki Sasaki

The Chiba Lotte Mariners of Japan's NPB have announced they plan to post the immensely talented 23-year-old right-hander Roki Sasaki, and there's already a belief the Dodgers will be the favorite to land him. For starters, because Sasaki would be under 25 years old, that limits his bonus to a max of about $7 million -- similar to the deal Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Angels in 2017 -- which puts the Dodgers in the running even after all the big contracts they signed last offseason.

As for the Evil Empire aspect, look at what the Dodgers have done in recent years:

2020: Traded for and extended Mookie Betts

2021: Signed Trevor Bauer; traded for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer (rental)

2022: Signed Freddie Freeman

2024: Signed Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and traded for and extended Tyler Glasnow

We haven't seen a run on superstar talent from one team like this since the original Evil Empire, the New York Yankees of the late '90s and early 2000s. From 1998 to 2005, they traded for or signed Chuck Knoblauch, Roger Clemens, David Justice, Mike Mussina, Jason Giambi, Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez, Javier Vazquez and Randy Johnson -- all big stars at the time (although they didn't all necessarily play at that level with the Yankees).

The key for the Dodgers is they've managed to so far avoid the huge free agent deal that flopped -- think of the Anthony Rendon contract with the Angels or the second Stephen Strasburg contract with the Washington Nationals. That's what would make a Sasaki signing hard for the sport -- and its fans -- to swallow: the defending champs adding a potential ace at a dirt-cheap price.

The guy who could fill a hole at shortstop ... or third base: Willy Adames

Adames has averaged 3.6 WAR over the past four seasons (and 3.9 WAR on FanGraphs, which especially rates his 2024 much better at 4.8 WAR compared to Baseball Reference's 3.1). Adames is entering his age-29 season and has been a consistent power producer over that four-year stretch, averaging 28 home runs, although his overall offensive value has fluctuated based on his batting average, which has ranged from to .262 to .217.

What's interesting is that the list of contending teams with both a possible opening at shortstop and a big enough checkbook is a pretty short one. The Atlanta Braves could use an upgrade on Orlando Arcia, but they historically give big contracts only when extending their own players. The Dodgers are a possible fit, but they did pick up Miguel Rojas' option and have Tommy Edman, too. San Diego Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim is a free agent, but they are more likely to reunite with him than sign Adames. The Giants are probably the best combo of need plus money.

So maybe that leaves a team that needs a third baseman. The Nationals, Angels and Detroit Tigers are in various periods of contention, but all could use a power-hitting third baseman. The Yankees could slide Jazz Chisholm Jr. over to second to replace free agent Gleyber Torres. The Kansas City Royals need the bat but would be a long shot on the money (same with the Seattle Mariners). A sleeper team: What if the New York Mets move Mark Vientos, a weak defensive third baseman, to first base? They could still re-sign Pete Alonso, a weak first baseman, and make him their DH.

The first baseman who might be the right price: Christian Walker

Speaking of Alonso, the four-time All-Star is the bigger name and one of the best power hitters in free agency, but it's likely that Walker will have more teams looking to sign him, with the Mets and Yankees perhaps dueling it out over Alonso. Walker is entering his age-34 season while Alonso is entering his age-30 season -- but that age difference will hold down Walker's overall total dollars (McDaniel projects a six-year, $159 million contract for Alonso and a three-year, $57 million contract for Walker), making him more attractive to a wider variety of teams.

The kicker is Walker might actually be the better player in the short term, or at least an equally valuable player to Alonso at a lower salary. Look at their past three seasons:

Walker: .250/.332/.481, 32 HR, 120 wRC+, 3.8 WAR per season

Alonso: .243/.333/.493, 40 HR, 128 wRC+, 3.4 WAR per season

Alonso has been a little better at the plate (park-adjusted) and didn't sit out a game last season, but Walker, who has won three straight Gold Gloves, has made up for that with superior defense. Sure, given his age, there's a risk of a sudden decline -- see Paul Goldschmidt, a superior player, winning an MVP at 34 years old in 2022 and then dropping off significantly in 2023 and even more in 2024.

In the end, however, Walker should be attractive to not just big-market teams that need a first baseman (Yankees, Houston Astros), but also midmarket teams: the Tigers, Mariners, Nationals, Giants ... heck, let's even throw the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds out there.

Player most likely to be the biggest steal: Sean Manaea

This is a tough category. Based on Kiley's contract projections, nobody stands out -- and picking a pitcher to be the biggest steal is kind of like picking candy corn as your favorite Halloween treat: It doesn't really make sense. Manaea also isn't particularly young as he'll be entering his age-33 season, and he did have shoulder surgery in 2018.

What is intriguing is that his new lower arm slot puts him on a new level. He adopted the lower slot in late June and produced outstanding results the rest of the way -- a 3.02 ERA and .181 batting average allowed over his final 18 regular-season starts. Manaea is ranked 10th on McDaniel's top-50 free agent ranking, but I like him over No. 9 Jack Flaherty or No. 11 Yusei Kikuchi based on the similar contract projections. And if Manaea is coming in at half the price as Max Fried and $100-something million lower than Corbin Burnes, that could make him the steal of free agency.

Player who helped himself the most in October: Gleyber Torres

The Yankees didn't even bother to give him a qualifying offer, so that doesn't help Torres' reputation as they're apparently happy to move on from him. But his solid October showcased that he does have some on-base skills (.330 in the regular season, .348 in the playoffs) and can be a tough out when he remains focused (he had more walks than strikeouts in the postseason). He has below-average range at second base and you probably don't want him on more than a two-year deal, but a lot -- and I mean a lot -- of teams struggled to get much offense at second: 11 teams had an OPS under .660 at second base. Teams such as the Mariners, Giants and Angels could be potential landing spots for Torres.

Best veteran closer to bet on: Kirby Yates

There are three pitchers to consider here: Yates, entering his age-38 season and coming of an All-Star campaign with 33 saves and a 1.17 ERA (boy did that fly under the radar); Blake Treinen, 37, postseason hero and owner of one hellacious sweeper (batters hit .120 against it); and Kenley Jansen, who will be 37 and just keeps rolling -- he's now fourth on the all-time saves list, just 31 behind Lee Smith.

Jansen has been the healthiest of the trio, making 50 appearances every full season of his career. Treinen returned this season after sitting out all of 2023 and most of 2022 following rotator cuff surgery. Yates has now had back-to-back healthy seasons after Tommy John surgery in 2021. McDaniel projects each to receive a similar two-year contract of $23 million to $25 million.

I think Yates comes out on top of the other two. His four-seamer/splitter combo dominates even without premium velocity and batters hit just .113 against him in 2024. Treinen's past shoulder issues are a bigger concern than Yates' elbow -- and I'd worry a bit about all the innings Treinen pitched in the postseason. Jansen, while reasonably effective in 2024 with a 3.29 ERA, wasn't at the level of Yates and Treinen, so even though he's probably the safest choice in regard to health, I like the potential for dominance that Yates and Treinen offer.

Best "Have bat, will travel" option for DH: Joc Pederson

Pederson is now strictly a DH -- he didn't play an inning in the field for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2024 -- but he's become a really good one and is still just entering his age-33 season. Over the past three seasons, he hit .262/.365/.485, good for a wRC+ of 135. Among players with 1,000 plate appearances, that ranks 16th, just below Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and just ahead of Jose Ramirez. He does need a platoon partner, but finding the short side of a DH platoon isn't too difficult. Pederson opted out of a $14 million mutual option, so he'll probably look for a similar two-year type of contract -- or at least is expecting a one-year deal for more than $14 million. Teams that could use a DH include the Mets, Mariners, Reds, Nationals, Royals and Texas Rangers, plus the Diamondbacks. Pederson could be heading for his sixth different team since 2020.

Best free agent timing award: Tyler O'Neill

After a monster season with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2021 in which he finished eighth in the MVP voting, O'Neill struggled with injuries in 2022 and 2023. The Cardinals then traded him to the Boston Red Sox last winter and he bounced back to hit .241/.336/.511 with 31 home runs in just 411 at-bats in 2024. Among players with 400 at-bats last season, only Aaron Judge and Ohtani had a better rate of at-bats per home run. That bounce-back should earn O'Neill a reasonable multiyear contract. It won't come without risk though: His 33.6% strikeout rate also ranked third highest on that list of players with 400 at-bats and he played only 114 games, spending stints on the injured list because of knee inflammation and later a scary leg infection.

Worst free agent timing award: Paul Goldschmidt

This will be Goldschmidt's first foray into free agency. He signed a five-year, $32 million extension early on with the Diamondbacks, which proved to be a ridiculously team-friendly deal; then, after being traded to the Cardinals, he signed a five-year, $130 million extension. Now he's 37 years old and coming off his worst season, hitting .245/.302/.414 with 22 home runs.

While he's clearly on the downside of a potential Hall of Fame career, he did, however, hit much better in the second half: .271/.319/.480. Goldschmidt also still showed elite exit velocity (92nd percentile hard-hit rate), although his strikeout and walk rates are going in the wrong direction, perhaps suggesting he's having to cheat a little at the plate to catch up to velocity. There is still a chance of a small comeback and there are teams that could use a first baseman if he doesn't end up back in St. Louis.

The guy you need to beat the Dodgers: Tanner Scott

From 2004 to 2017, the American League won interleague play every season -- often by large margins. The reason, in retrospect, seems clear: The Yankees, and then the Red Sox, had grown so powerful that it forced the other AL teams to raise their own level to compete.