This has been some kind of transitional season for the New York Mets.
Think back to spring training, if you can. The Mets were coming off one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history, a direct consequence of putting together a historically expensive roster only to see the whole thing fall apart from bloat. It was kind of like a clumsy, overfed baby penguin, only not nearly so cute: There's nothing adorable about a $375 million, 75-win team.
Right after the season, the Mets made the splashiest move they'd make all winter: They hired former Milwaukee baseball ops wunderkind David Stearns to right the ship. While the marriage of Stearns' small-market efficiency (perfected with the Brewers) and the sheer economic heft of the Steven Cohen-owned Mets seemed promising, there would invariably be growing pains.
In order to shake off the excesses of the past, some of which he inherited, Stearns would have to wait out some of that bloat. As he oversaw the renovation of New York's behind-the-scenes processes, things were going to have to get leaner. The Mets subsequently puttered along through a quiet winter full of short-term pickups and minor league signings. There was the failed pursuit of Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but otherwise, things were quiet around Citi Field.
Thus, entering the season, expectations were a lot more tempered than they were the year before. Two weeks before Opening Day, the Mets' over/under for wins at ESPN BET was 80.5, and that was before news came out that No. 1 starter Kodai Senga wasn't healthy and his outlook was uncertain, a status that didn't really change much all season.
During spring training, about the time those middle-of-the-road forecasts for the 2024 Mets were coming out, we visited New York's training facility in Port Saint Lucie, Florida, and sat down with Stearns for some insight about how his version of the Mets might look. Of course, Stearns would only reveal so much, so invariably a lot of what we came up with was also based on looking at how he ran the Milwaukee Brewers.
Now here we are, nearly seven months later, and the Mets are in the National League Championship Series, having beaten the Philadelphia Phillies two games to one. This leaner, transitional edition of the franchise seems to gain momentum with each late-inning comeback and division champion vanquished (including Stearns' old team in Milwaukee). Obviously, even as the Mets remain under construction, the project seems to be going well.
It's not just good fortune -- or good-luck charms -- though there has been a good amount of that. There are plenty of examples of how the principles Stearns, manager Carlos Mendoza and everyone else put in place to make the team a sustainable power are paying off on a daily basis, at the highest-stakes time of the year.
Let's run through five of these quickly sprouted pillars of the new Mets.
Depth, depth and more depth
All of these principles will read as oversimplifications, and at this point in the history of baseball management, pretty much all teams deploy versions of them. The distinctions come in emphasis, execution and innovation.
Still, it wasn't exactly a focal point for the pre-Stearns Mets, who tended to the top of their roster by collecting big names and paying them big money. The decadence is perhaps best illustrated by the Max Scherzer-Justin Verlander starting rotation that everyone was understandably revved up about. The excess extended down into other tiers of the roster as well, where too many problems were addressed by throwing around money. After all, that's how you end up with a record payroll.
While the Mets have been in nonstop acquisition mode under Stearns, they have tended to get much better bang for their buck in 2024. And where additions haven't worked out, they involved players brought in on minor league deals or one-year major league contracts, so the consequences of ill-timed signings don't carry longer-term ramifications.
You see two keen examples of this on the position player side in veterans Tyrone Taylor and Jose Iglesias. Taylor was a trade acquisition from Milwaukee brought in with two additional seasons of team control remaining. He's been an ideal fourth outfielder, posting 2.0 bWAR while making $2.1 million this season. He hasn't hit much in the playoffs, but he's a key component of the Mets' late-inning defense-first deployments, sliding over from center field when Harrison Bader comes on to cover it.
Meanwhile, Iglesias has been the consummate veteran glue player and the everyday second baseman. He was brought in on a minor league deal --for all his time in the majors, he played 42 games in Triple-A until he was needed. Iglesias wasn't alone. Also among the recognizable names who spent time in Syracuse for the Mets were Jackie Bradley Jr., Trayce Thompson, Ben Gamel, Eddie Rosario, Mike Brousseau, Yolmer Sanchez, Joey Lucchesi, Yacksel Rios, Shintaro Fujinami and Kyle Crick. Not all of these players were needed or even retained, but when the Mets have needed to fill a roster spot, they usually had someone in the organization to do it.
The approach helped get the Mets to September, and it has continued to pay dividends, as Iglesias has provided stability and small-ball offensive contributions while he fills in for Jeff McNeil, the ailing regular at the keystone who might be ready to return for the NLCS.
Constant iteration
While there hasn't been much action at the top of the roster since Stearns arrived, the other tiers have seen constant evolution. Stearns' hire was announced just after the 2023 season, on Oct. 2. Coincidentally, the transaction database from the Roster Resources section of FanGraphs dates back to Oct. 3, 2023, or the day after Stearns took the reins.
We downloaded that database and ran some numbers. While these figures aren't official, they give you a pretty good idea of how consistent the Mets have been at turning over spots and not being overly precious with those last few slots on the 40-man roster.
Since Stearns took over:
• The Mets have signed 40 players to free agent deals, many of the minor league variety, some deals in order to avoid arbitration. None have been aimed at the top tier of free agents. The only contract given out that covered more than one season was the two-year deal for Sean Manaea. But Manaea can opt out (and is expected to) after his terrific campaign. Only two teams (the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves) have more moves in this category.
• The Mets have made 13 waiver claims, second to the Marlins. Among others, this has yielded reliever Max Kranick, who has spent time on the Mets' active roster during the playoffs.
• The Mets have designated players for assignment 34 times, tied for second behind Miami. The DFA tool is kind of the ultimate expression of end-of-the-roster iteration. You recall a player who might or might not have a long-term role in the organization, or sign someone cut loose by another team. These are glorified temp gigs and when you use such players, you are also willing to lose them because they don't have options remaining and their roster spot might be needed.
Players who wind up on the DFA carousel can accept an outright assignment if no one claims them. Sure enough, the Mets have outrighted players 11 times under Stearns, third most in the majors behind Oakland and Colorado.
It gets dizzying. Reliever Michael Tonkin broke camp with the team but was later DFA'd four times during the season, twice by the Mets, who also claimed him from the Twins only to DFA him again. He ended up with the Yankees. Veteran Julio Teheran signed with the Mets, made one unsuccessful start, was DFA'd, elected free agency and moved on.
• The Mets have acquired 16 players via trade under Stearns, ranking 11th. None of these deals have involved stars, either coming in or going out. But the impact on the postseason roster has been enormous, with Huascar Brazoban, Jesse Winker, Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Luis Torrens and Taylor all making an active roster during the playoffs.
All told, the database has 299 total entries for the Mets. Only four teams have more -- the Miami Marlins (featuring frenetic first-year ops chief Peter Bendix), the Dodgers (the masters of iteration ever since Andrew Friedman took over), the San Francisco Giants (ex-GM Farhan Zaidi doing his best impression of the Dodgers Way) and the Chicago White Sox (Chris Getz's manic rearrangement of the deck chairs on baseball's Titanic).
Iteration is a powerful tool in roster management, and it goes hand in hand with the depth factor mentioned above.
An infusion of youth
When we were in Port St. Lucie in March, Mark Vientos and Brett Baty were working together on a defensive drill. Vientos looked a bit ... mechanical, to put it diplomatically, while Baty seemed sure and smooth in his movements. Both had promise at the plate but plenty to work on. A little later, after the fielding drill, Stearns talked about the importance of making sure your prospects have pathways to prove themselves in the majors, once they've proved they are ready. Otherwise, any messaging you have about developing your young players will fall flat.
At the time, Baty seemed slotted as the Opening Day third baseman. Meanwhile, Vientos seemed likely to be a major part of the mix at DH, given the considerable promise he'd shown as a power bat. His defense needed work, and his .253 OBP in 2023, over 233 plate appearances, suggested a still-immature approach at the plate. A couple of days after we departed Mets camp, New York signed J.D. Martinez. It was a one-year deal (of course), but the move more or less sealed Vientos' starting assignment in Triple-A.
Well, the Mets got off to a slow start as a team -- but no one more so than Baty. By the end of May, Baty's gig as the starting third baseman was over, and down to Syracuse he went, taking a .633 OPS with him. By then, Vientos was back in the majors and had already started to supplant Baty as the go-to at the hot corner for Mendoza.
The Mets could have gone for a steady veteran to hold down the fort at third base, especially since their 24-33 mark at the end of May suggested a certain amount of urgency. Instead, Vientos got the call, started hitting and never stopped.
So far in the postseason, Vientos is leading all players in win probability added. In the field, he was at least sure-handed during the season, with range metrics that were mixed but good enough considering his production at the plate. In Game 3 against the Phillies, we saw Vientos go into foul territory after snagging a grounder and throw out a runner all the way across the diamond, a play that was at least a decent homage to Brooks Robinson.
And Baty? Check back next year. He had a so-so season at the plate in the minors while learning how to play second base. He's still only 24.
Cashing in on second-chance players
Call them bounce-back candidates, though sometimes, such players don't have any prior big league success to which they can aspire. But you know what we're talking about: Taking a chance on a veteran player, already developed in the minors but is struggling in the majors, and seeing if you can unlock some prior or yet-to-be-discovered production.
The most sustainable teams -- the Brewers, Cleveland Guardians, Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros among them -- always feature rejuvenated veterans like this. (Stearns worked for three of those teams.) The Mets might have taken it to another level, and they enter the playoffs with a fine rotation one-two punch that falls into this category.
Luis Severino finished in the top 10 in AL Cy Young balloting two years in a row with the Yankees before his career went south because of a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness. The Mets got him on a one-year, $13 million deal, getting a veteran with the upside of a onetime ace and plenty to prove. Severino responded with his most innings, wins and strikeouts since his Yankees heyday. His 101 ERA+ wasn't star-level, but the consistency and durability he provided were crucial.
The Mets are the fourth team in four seasons for Manaea, whose combined ERA+ for the Padres (2022) and Giants (2023) was 83. All he's done for the Mets is throw a career-best 181⅔ innings with an ERA+ of 114. He has been one of the best pitchers for any team this October, at least those in the non-Tarik Skubal class.
These improvements are no accident, and the Mets expect to do this kind of thing every year after constructing a new pitch lab in Florida. Severino introduced a sweeper to his arsenal this season, and it's been his most effective pitch. Manaea has changed the mix of his pitches but more crucially has changed where he stands on the rubber and gone to a more of a cross-body motion. The results speak for themselves.
Now here we are well into October, and the Mets' top two starters are both in the second-chance category. They were low-risk signings, but you would have been justified to also call them low-upside pickups. With the Mets, Severino and Manaea have provided nothing but upside.
Patience
Like every team, the Mets put together forecasts, for their own team and for the league as a whole. These forecasts give Stearns a coherent baseline of expectation for what his team can be and what its true talent level is at any given time. But more importantly, Stearns knows that divergence from even the best forecasts is normal. All things being equal, a team will find its true level -- eventually. This doesn't always happen as quickly as you want it to or even when you need it to, given baseball's rigid calendar for making trade decisions.
The Mets could have panicked when they floundered under .500 for more than two months. New York was 24-35 on June 2 and below .500 as late as July 8. The Mets could have cleaned house. They could have made a desperation trade. But they kept to their plan, making micro-move after micro-move, even as the clock ticked away incessantly ahead of the trade deadline. They did not panic, and they had quantifiable reasons not to.
What would panic have looked like? It would have looked like trading away free-agent-to-be Pete Alonso. Power bats like his are exceedingly difficult to acquire during the season, and any number of teams would have relished a shot at the Polar Bear. Instead, despite an up-and-down season, he has remained a fixture in Mendoza's lineup. His three-run homer in the decisive wild-card game against the Brewers not only saved the Mets' season, it was the biggest hit of his career.
Of course, Alonso is still going to be a free agent. Another panic move might have been to ink Alonso to an expensive extension, hoping that the signing of a beloved player would quiet down an antsy fan base. The Mets didn't do that, either. Now, when this season ends, Alonso will find his value, and whether or not he returns to New York is hard to say.
From the team's standpoint, whether or not Alonso stays will be a matter of making a clear-eyed decision, not one of panic or to pander to fans or media. For now, the Mets are just glad they were patient.
In any of these five pillars, there has not been one splashy move described. The Mets have been run precisely as we suggested they would be under Stearns, with the emphasis on reason, not buzz. The irony is that in operating in this fashion, the Mets have created an awful lot of buzz at the very time of the year when you want fans to be humming with excitement over a franchise.
This has happened in what has arguably been a transition season, one that has not only put the Mets in position to possibly end the franchise's World Series drought, but sets them up to do this again next year, and the year after that, and so on.
Sustainability is a murky word in sports these days, thrown around without much thought or clarity. With the Mets, this is what they had in mind when sustainability became their mantra. And it's turning out to be a whole lot sexier than it sounds.