There is less than a week remaining until the start of the 2024 MLB playoffs, and our MLB insiders are ready to break down the biggest questions, latest news and notable October buzz across the industry.
What is the boldest prediction we've heard from an MLB exec? How confident -- or concerned -- should New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers fans be heading into the postseason? And which under-the-radar players and teams are scouts raving about down the stretch? Here's the latest intel our MLB experts are hearing as Jeff Passan, Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers, Jorge Castillo and Alden Gonzalez empty their notebooks heading into the playoffs.
What is the boldest playoff prediction you've heard from an MLB exec or scout?
Olney: One evaluator told me he thinks that Luke Weaver will emerge as a star through the postseason. If you close games for the Yankees, especially under the current circumstances, then you have that chance.
Passan: It's a toss-up between a pair of fiery takes: Detroit is going to win the American League pennant, and the San Diego Padres are going to sweep the Los Angeles Dodgers in the division series. The Tigers are the hottest team in baseball, yes, and they do have Tarik Skubal, who hasn't lost a game in nearly two months. But to go from 55-63 to the World Series with a roster that has almost no playoff experience is rather bold. The Padres are an excellent team, the best in MLB since the All-Star break, so picking them isn't a surprise. A sweep, though? That would be two straight for the Dodgers.
Do MLB insiders think this is the year the Yankees finally win the American League pennant?
Olney: Most of the rival evaluators I talk to view the Yankees as a mystery, because they've played so inconsistently. "Jekyll or Hyde," said one. "You really don't know what you're going to get." They cite the uncertainty in the bullpen, the questions about some of the rotation members and the defense of third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. The trade deadline addition of Chisholm has turned out to be a really nice move by Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, but Chisholm is new to the position, and folks with other teams wonder whether that inexperience will manifest in a big moment.
Castillo: Are the Astros still in the American League? They are? Then, no, the Yankees are not the team to beat. And that's not a knock on the Yankees. They have two of the best hitters in baseball (Aaron Judge and Juan Soto), an ace peaking at the right time (Gerrit Cole) and a bullpen performing at a high level despite not having a designated closer. They are as healthy as any team in the majors. They could end up with home-field advantage through the ALCS. Their top-end talent could fuel a deep October run.
But the Astros are sitting there with the best record in baseball since May 12. They've advanced to seven straight American League Championship Series, and there's no reason to believe they won't make it eight. The Astros still feel inevitable. So Jose Altuve, Yordan Álvarez (whose health will play a key role in how far Houston goes), Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez, Josh Hader & Co. are the favorites to reach the World Series for the fifth time in eight years until they don't.
How much concern is there about the Dodgers' pitching depth across the industry?
Gonzalez: It seems as though evaluators have graduated from general concern about the Dodgers' starting pitching to overall acceptance. It's not good -- not with Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone out, Clayton Kershaw on the mend, Walker Buehler not looking right, and even Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto triggering concern of late. And so the question many have asked is a simple one: Can the Dodgers hit enough to make up for it?
On paper, the answer seems obvious: Of course they can. But Mookie Betts has gone 2-for-25 in the past two division series, Freddie Freeman hasn't felt right with his swing for most of the year and Shohei Ohtani has been streaky in RBI situations this season. Could they all go cold in a week, prompting yet another premature end to a much-hyped Dodgers season? Certainly. But everyone agrees that -- with Teoscar Hernández thriving in L.A., Gavin Lux turning his season around, Max Muncy getting healthy and Miguel Rojas becoming an out-of-nowhere contributor -- this is as deep a group as they have ever fielded. A rival scout brought up one player in particular who really scares teams: Tommy Edman, who brings a bat-to-ball skill set this Dodgers lineup needed and has been on a heater despite missing the first four months.
Passan: The discussion isn't as much about the Dodgers' lack of pitching depth as it is about how manager Dave Roberts will utilize the arms who remain to take his team deep into the postseason. Opposing executives marvel at the Dodgers' ability to roster as many solid major league pitchers as they do despite an injured list that includes Glasnow, Stone, Kershaw, River Ryan, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Emmet Sheehan.
Los Angeles will make up for its paucity of starting pitching with a bullpen that already has been taxed with the second-most innings of any team in MLB -- and behind only Detroit, which often uses openers. The best of Los Angeles' relief corps have been Brusdar Graterol, Blake Treinen and Michael Kopech -- and the arrival of Edgardo Henriquez and his 104 mph fastball adds even more velocity to a bullpen replete with it. With plenty more days off than during the regular season, Roberts can show his managerial chops by navigating the leftover Dodger pitchers through a deep postseason run.
Who do those in the game think could be this year's D-backs or Rangers, going from one of the last teams in the field to one of the last teams standing?
Gonzalez: The fifth- or sixth-best team out of 15 in each league is inherently going to be flawed, but in some circles, the Braves are seen as something of a sleeping giant. Chris Sale, Max Fried, Spencer Schwellenbach, Charlie Morton and Reynaldo López -- the latter of whom is expected back for the final regular-season series and could be a multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen in October -- make up the type of rotation nobody wants to face. Their bullpen, led by a dominant Raisel Iglesias, is just as potent. And though the Braves' offense has struggled without Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley for most of the year, this is a group with the type of moxie that makes it quite dangerous in high-pressure environments.
If the Braves get in -- still a major question, of course -- they might be the scariest among the late qualifiers. Their 2021 championship stands as a perfect example of what they're capable of even when shorthanded.
Rogers: Sometimes the obvious choice is the right one. I spoke to a scout who was at Citi Field on Sunday night when the Mets beat the Phillies. The environment was electric. New York feels like it has the same mojo that propelled the Diamondbacks to the World Series last season.
The Mets hired a first-time manager -- thinking more about their future than this season -- but Carlos Mendoza stayed the course during some rough early waters and is now getting high praise. Moreover, the Mets' starting staff has been lights-out, ranking first in the NL in ERA since the All-Star break. That plays in October, as does a lights-out closer. Edwin Diaz has struck out 42 in 24 innings since the break and has given up just one run all month. His six-out save on Sunday night was a "big boy" one, as the scout in attendance declared. The "other" New York team might just keep this going next week.
Who are some under-the-radar players with industry buzz as potential October stars?
Passan: Riley Greene is the best player on the resurgent Detroit Tigers, and Kerry Carpenter is their best hitter, but two other left-handed bats in a quite-lefty-heavy lineup are making excellent impressions during this late surge. Center fielder Parker Meadows and shortstop Trey Sweeney have won every-day jobs and are doing enough offensively and defensively to keep them. Meadows struggled early and was hurt, and Sweeney came over along with Thayron Liranzo in the deadline deal for Jack Flaherty. Meadows returned Aug. 3, Sweeney arrived Aug. 16, and the Tigers are 23-9 in games they both played.
Then there's Arizona Diamondbacks left-hander A.J. Puk, who has been the single best reliever in baseball since the trade deadline. In 26 innings with Arizona, Puk has allowed 11 hits, walked four, struck out 41, not surrendered a home run and posted a 0.35 ERA. Puk's excellence dates back to his return to the bullpen May 13 after an ill-fated four-start stretch. Since then, he leads MLB relievers in FanGraphs WAR. And while perhaps Emmanuel Clase better deserves that designation, Puk gets out right-handers almost as well as he does lefties, and the Diamondbacks are hoping to continue to lean on him heavily in the most high-leverage spots. On Sunday, when he didn't pitch, the Diamondbacks blew an 8-0 lead in a 10-9 loss to Milwaukee.
Since Tommy Edman debuted for the Dodgers on Aug. 19, he has been everything they hoped for. The Dodgers needed a versatile defender. Edman has played 24 games in center field and 14 at shortstop, the two most taxing positions outside of catcher. He has batted in the Nos. 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 spots in the order. He is crushing left-handed pitching with his right-handed swing, making up for a tough start with his left-handed swing. He has hit six home runs and stolen six bases and been the sort of player Los Angeles covets -- and, especially this year, needs.
Rogers: It's hard to describe a reigning Rookie of the Year as under the radar, but Corbin Carroll hasn't exactly been in a lot of headlines this season -- or at least not until recently -- and his second-half play has scouts buzzing. His stroke has returned, and that could pay big dividends in October. He has been slugging a lot more since the All-Star break, with 13 home runs in his past 42 starts being the stat that really stands out. He still has game-changing speed (32 stolen bases, 14 triples) and could carry the D-backs again this October.
The way things are trending, the baseball world is about to get introduced to a gritty Tigers team, including a hidden aspect of its run: the bullpen. Scouts rave about lefty Tyler Holton, who has started eight games as an opener and finished 14 others while earning eight saves. He has been dominant, giving up just 57 hits in 90 innings. His four-seamer against righties has produced a .109 batting average while his sinker plays against lefties (.169). The Tigers also tinkered with his slider/sweeper since picking him up off waivers from Arizona in February 2023. Batters are hitting just .136 off that pitch. And they like that he can throw any of his pitches on any count. The 2018 ninth-round pick is part of a Tigers pen that is arguably the second best in the AL, behind the Guardians.
Which free agents-to-be have the best chance to help (or hurt) their next contracts in October?
Castillo: The 2024 Astros have gone as Alex Bregman has gone. The third baseman was slashing .201/.270/.264 with one home run in 37 games through May 12, and the Astros were off to a dreadful 15-25 start. Since then, Bregman is batting .276 with 24 home runs, an .835 OPS and a 135 wRC+ that ranks 25th in baseball, while the Astros have posted the best record in the majors.
Overall, Bregman is having a down year compared to the past two seasons. His OPS is down nearly 50 points from 2023. His wRC+ is down from 126 to 115. His walk rate has plummeted from 12.7% to 7.1%. But he has hit 25 home runs for the second straight season and has avoided the injured list for the third straight year.
Matt Chapman seemingly set the floor for Bregman's next contract by signing a six-year, $151 million extension with the Giants. Both are Scott Boras clients. Chapman is the superior defender. But Bregman is the better hitter and, at 30, is a year younger. Another memorable October could drive his price up.
Sean Manaea had a 3.74 ERA through his first 20 starts with the Mets. Then he watched Chris Sale twirl a gem at Citi Field and decided to mimic the NL Cy Young favorite's low arm slot when he threw the next day. Four days later, he held the Twins to two hits over seven scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts and one walk. It marked the beginning of a dominant run. The 6-foot-5 left-hander has a 2.63 ERA in 11 starts since July 30. His 82 strikeouts are second in baseball over that span. His 72 innings are first. He has pitched into the seventh inning in 10 of the outings.
Manaea, 32, signed a two-year, $28 million contract with an opt-out after this season. His midseason ascendance from solid starter to ace has already put him in line for a hefty raise. Continuing the dominance would only further elevate his status in a free agent class featuring starters Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty.
Rogers: If Rhys Hoskins plans to turn down his $18 million player option for next year in search of a longer-term deal, he'll need a big playoff performance. His power returned with the Milwaukee Brewers this season after he missed a year because of injury, but overall he hasn't hit, batting just .212 overall and a woeful .155 against breaking balls. A big October could prove he's back to his old self, and there will be a slew of openings at first base this winter.
Yankees infielder Gleyber Torres has picked it up in the second half -- just as he did last season -- but he might need to shine some more on the October stage in order to secure a big free agent deal. He's the second youngest (28) free agent position player after Juan Soto, automatically making him an attractive candidate. Some playoff power would help alleviate concerns about how much it has dropped during the regular season, from hitting 49 home runs over the past two years to just 15 this season.
Anthony Rizzo could also have a lot of upside this October after two injury-prone seasons. He should get plenty of pitches to hit while batting in the bottom third of the Yankees' lineup -- though his hard hit percentage is currently the lowest of his career. That could change in the postseason, and Rizzo can either prove to the Yankees they should pick up his option for 2025 or show other teams that he's still a dangerous left-handed hitter.
What else are you hearing ahead of the playoffs?
Passan: A scout watching one of Matthew Boyd's starts recently summed him up very simply: "Yup, that's Matt Boyd." Which was to say that after the Tommy John surgery and more than a year off, Boyd hasn't lost what made him very good and what compelled the Cleveland Guardians to sign him. He is still striking out guys with a 92 mph fastball he uses about half the time, a slider and a change that are both swing-and-miss pitches, and the ability to locate. Even better so far, the home run rate is down despite nearly 70% fly balls against him. So if that number regresses, the effectiveness of Boyd might, too, but a 2.72 ERA through eight starts and 39⅔ innings with 46 strikeouts and 13 walks is about as good as one could hope for coming off elbow reconstruction. And it might wind up with Boyd in the Guardians' playoff rotation.
Rogers: One executive noted that he doesn't think we'll hear as much complaining about the playoff format this postseason simply because of the parity that currently exists. Anyone can legitimately beat anyone in this year's field -- there really are no upsets, the executive said. Because of that, the division winners probably won't have an issue with a layoff, after earning a first-round bye, because it's one less round to get knocked out -- or injured.
Gonzalez: One team continues to be mentioned among the most dangerous and arguably the most complete heading into October: the San Diego Padres, who lost three of the best players from last year's group -- Juan Soto, Blake Snell and Josh Hader -- and are somehow significantly better. Their lineup is balanced and clutch, and it's the best in the sport at putting the ball in play. After another busy trade deadline from their perpetually busy general manager, A.J. Preller, their bullpen is lethal. And their starting pitching has been dominant of late. Nobody, it seems, wants to face them.
Passan: Not only do the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers control their own destinies, both desperately want to wrap up a playoff spot before Sunday. As of now, Cole Ragans and Tarik Skubal, the teams' top starters, are lined up to pitch on the season's final day. If either team can cobble together a combination of three victories or Minnesota losses, they're in. And if not, they will find themselves at a significant disadvantage should they eventually make the postseason. Ragans and Skubal would need to pitch on three days' rest to throw in Game 3 of a wild-card series -- something neither has done nor is likely to do. For Kansas City, wrapping up by Saturday would be even more ideal. Seth Lugo is set to start that day; if he does, he won't be ready again until Game 3, but otherwise he could start Game 2 -- or, if Kansas City prefers not to have right-handers back-to-back, Lugo could go in Game 1, Ragans Game 2 and Michael Wacha Game 3.
Passan: Arizona snapping a three-game skid with a victory Wednesday night increased the likelihood of chaos in the National League wild-card race. The postponement of Wednesday and Thursday's Mets-Braves games until Monday allows the Diamondbacks to head into their final three games tied with New York and a game ahead of Atlanta. San Diego clinching could prompt the Padres to take their foot off the gas this weekend against Arizona, but teams see the Diamondbacks' MLB-best offense as formidable enough that knocking them out of the playoffs altogether could be the preferred route. In the meantime, the Mets head to Milwaukee and the Braves will host Kansas City in their biggest series of the year.