The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 67% of the time since the All-Star break and yet have seen their division lead trimmed by a game and a half. Until recently, it seemed as if the month of August would signal the start of another one of their prolonged, postseason tryout periods. But the San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks, the teams that eliminated them from the division series in 2022 and 2023, respectively, have pushed them. Hard.
The Dodgers' two National League West rivals are also the only teams that have fared better over the last seven weeks. Yes, that's right, the three best records in the majors since the All-Star break belong, respectively, to the Padres, D-backs and Dodgers. Dave Roberts, L.A.'s ninth-year manager, has vacillated between whether that qualifies as a negative development or a positive one for his club. On one hand, urgency can take its toll on a roster, forcing teams to overly rely on key players at a time when they would prefer the opposite. On the other, the Dodgers led their division by at least 10 games dating to Aug. 16 in 2023 and July 21 in 2022 -- only to get trounced in their first postseason rounds.
Maybe they could use this type of practice.
"I think that the focus on each night, from each player, coaches, is more enhanced," Roberts said, "and all that stuff just makes you better."
The Dodgers showed some of that over these past few days, winning three of four on the road against the D-backs to finally give themselves some breathing room in the standings. By the end of Labor Day weekend, they led the Padres by five games and the D-backs by six, with FanGraphs giving them a 93.5% chance of winning the division.
Take that for what it's worth.
The D-backs, who came one Tommy Edman bloop single away from potentially splitting their series, have the talent and moxie to take down the mighty Dodgers when it matters most. The Padres do, too. And in a season devoid of world-beaters, one can make a strong case the three best teams in the NL -- heck, the three best teams in the sport -- might reside in the West.
Below is a deeper look at the recent success of the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks -- and what makes them dangerous in October -- with help from scouts, coaches and executives both inside and outside those organizations.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Record before the All-Star break: 56-41 (.577)
Record since the break: 28-14 (.667)
How they got here: The Dodgers have found a way to stay atop their division without being anywhere close to fully formed. They began the All-Star break with a major league-leading 15 players on the injured list and have had to navigate these past seven weeks with the following players out for varying lengths of time: Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, Blake Treinen, Brusdar Graterol, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and, more recently, Clayton Kershaw, who went back on the IL because of a bone spur in his left big toe. It's stunning they've been able to overcome, and at times thrive. They've done it because they remain incredibly deep. Because Shohei Ohtani continues to be absurd. Because Betts and Freeman are clearly immune to the effects of missed time. Because Gavin Lux has completely turned his season around. Because Gavin Stone continues to impress as a rookie. And because Michael Kopech, with his devastating upper-90s fastball, has brought a much-needed element to the bullpen.
Why they're dangerous: They're the Dodgers. And regardless of how well the D-backs and Padres are performing, and how little they seemingly fear them, the Dodgers are still the deepest and most talented team. Their ability to maintain some distance with their roster in perpetual flux throughout the second half only accentuates that point. Their lineup is whole now and -- with Lux surging, Ohtani thriving at leadoff, Betts and Freeman picking up where they left off, Muncy staying locked in despite a three-month absence and Teoscar Hernández continuing to produce -- as dangerous as expected when the season began. Their bullpen boasts a litany of power arms -- even more so when Graterol makes his expected return by the end of this week -- and pitched to a 2.81 ERA in August, third lowest in the majors. And though uncertainty plagues their starting staff, they just might have enough high-quality arms to overcome it.
Why they're vulnerable: As one longtime scout noted, "They're going to live and die with their starting pitching." And starting pitching has been the source of some real angst around the Dodgers lately, for one obvious reason: There's no telling what their rotation will look like in October. The only lock right now is Jack Flaherty, acquired at the trade deadline after four resurgent months with the Detroit Tigers. Glasnow is on the injured list because of a bout of elbow tendinitis that has become more serious than originally expected, and he needs to get back off a mound soon if he hopes to be fully stretched out again for the playoffs. Yamamoto has begun a rehab assignment but has been out since the middle of June, and there's no telling what he'll look like when he returns. Buehler and Bobby Miller had encouraging starts their last two times through the rotation but had combined for a 6.92 ERA before then. Kershaw, 36 and coming off shoulder surgery, is tough to rely on these days. And Stone, a revelation in his first full season in the majors, surpassed his previous career high in innings before the start of September, layering in his own uncertainty.
San Diego Padres
Record before the All-Star break: 50-49 (.505)
Record since the break: 29-12 (.707)
How they got here: It has long been said the Padres' offense lives and dies with Manny Machado. And the trajectory of this season validates it. Machado got off to a slow start in the wake of offseason elbow surgery but has been on a heater for basically three months, carrying an .885 OPS since the start of June. The lineup has thrived right along with him. But this offense is more than Machado. Much more. It's balanced, versatile, dynamic and, unlike last year, clutch. Machado, Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr. (more on him later) are the headliners, but Jackson Merrill, Jurickson Profar and, yep, Kyle Higashioka have made major, unexpected contributions to provide some legitimate length. Seeking an impact arm before the trade deadline, Padres general manager A.J. Preller eschewed the high prices for starting pitchers and went big on the bullpen, adding Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing to a relief corps that already included Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada and Yuki Matsui.
Why they're dangerous: A close observer called this year's Padres "a well-oiled machine," which seems appropriate. They might not have quite as much star power as last year's group, but the pieces seem to fit so much better. They're dominating in extra-inning games and coming through in clutch situations, two things they famously didn't do last year. And though a lot of that might be a simple return to the mean, those who have watched the Padres closely this season see an offense whose players seem to complement one another perfectly and has the type of depth that would rival anyone's. Case in point: Merrill, suddenly running away with the NL Rookie of the Year award, has hit no higher than sixth since the All-Star break -- while slashing .320/.350/.620 in that stretch. Now the kicker: The Padres had been doing all this without Tatis, arguably their best player, who returned on Labor Day after a 59-game absence. The Padres are the best contact team in baseball, a trait that will suit them well in tight postseason games. Now they've added a power-and-speed dynamo to that mix.
Why they're vulnerable: The Padres' rotation picture isn't as confusing as the Dodgers', but this too is their most uncertain area. One of the biggest concerns recently was whether Joe Musgrove would be healthy enough to be a front-line starter down the stretch. And though he seems to have alleviated that of late, posting a 1.30 ERA in five starts since coming off the injured list, he still missed time on separate occasions because of an elbow injury, including all of June and July. The other major question was whether Yu Darvish, put on the restricted list at the end of May, would pitch at all again this year. And though he has since rejoined the team and will make his return to the rotation Wednesday, he sat out three full months and needs to prove his elbow is healthy. There's also Michael King, who went from 51 innings in 2022 to 104⅔ innings in 2023 and is on pace to surpass 170 innings in 2024, and Dylan Cease, who hasn't been quite as dominant since his no-hitter on July 25.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Record before the All-Star break: 49-48 (.505)
Record since the break: 29-13 (.690)
How they got here: This cannot be overstated: The D-backs boast the sport's highest OPS since the All-Star break, and they've been without Christian Walker for five weeks, Gabriel Moreno for four weeks and Ketel Marte for two weeks. Their lineup, which finally welcomed Walker back on Tuesday, has become that deep. Joc Pederson, signed to a one-year, $12.5 million contract in the offseason, has been a bargain. Josh Bell, a scramble pickup when Walker went down before the trade deadline, has been a godsend. Jake McCarthy, who has essentially replaced Alek Thomas, has been a revelation. Adrian Del Castillo, who mashed in Triple-A and has replaced Moreno against righties, has been crucial. And, most importantly, Corbin Carroll has looked a lot more like the guy who lit the world on fire last year, with an OPS .378 points higher in the second half than he had in the first.
Why they're dangerous: Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez have combined for 13 starts, Jordan Montgomery has a 6.26 ERA, and yet the D-backs' rotation scenario might be the envy of the division. It's a weird thing to write coming off a four-game series that saw their starters combine for 15 earned runs in 20 innings against the Dodgers, during which a scout raised concerns over the quality of Kelly's and Rodriguez's stuff. But the D-backs have had to navigate all year with a rotation stripped down to the studs and are just now at full strength -- so much so that Montgomery has been demoted to the bullpen. Kelly missed close to four months with a shoulder strain, and Rodriguez, who began his D-backs tenure with a serious lat strain, didn't debut until Aug. 7. Each has less than four weeks to get right. If they do, they'll join Zac Gallen and two promising young arms in Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson, one of whom probably won't crack the October rotation. The D-backs have five potential October starters healthy for the stretch run. The Padres can't quite say that yet. The Dodgers definitely can't.
Why they're vulnerable: You can make a strong case that this is the best bullpen the D-backs have had going into the stretch run since they last won the NL West in 2011 -- but that does not mean there isn't reason for concern, particularly in the ninth inning. Paul Sewald, the closer on last year's World Series team, posted a 7.78 ERA in July and August and is now pitching in low-leverage situations. His replacement has been Justin Martinez, a 23-year-old Dominican right-hander who has explosive stuff -- a triple-digit sinker, a devastating splitter and, for kicks, a highly effective slider -- but has also struggled to throw strikes throughout his career. "If he's around the plate, he's untouchable," a longtime scout said. And if he isn't, the D-backs have some coverage with A.J. Puk, Kevin Ginkel and Joe Mantiply, who have been good to excellent.