On June 18, the Houston Astros lost 2-0 to the lowly Chicago White Sox, dropping them to 33-40, 10 games behind the Seattle Mariners in the American League West. They were a little beaten up and certainly searching for answers. Their odds of winning the division via FanGraphs were at 10.8%. Meanwhile, despite a lackluster offense, Seattle was rolling, reliant largely on a stellar rotation.
Even with more than half the season remaining, a 10-game lead appeared safe. After all, only seven teams in the division era since 1969 had blown as big an advantage.
It took the Astros just 24 days to catch the Mariners -- the fastest a team has ever gained that much ground. After a month spent mostly neck and neck, Houston has now won 11 of its past 13 games; Seattle went 1-5 last week. Suddenly, the Astros have stretched their division lead to a comfortable four games. Since June 18, they've gone 35-17. The Mariners have gone 21-32.
How did we get here? Buster Olney and David Schoenfield break down some of the key moments and numbers that swung this race in Houston's favor. Let's start with what's gone right for the Astros, followed by what's gone wrong for the Mariners.
Houston Astros
They're scoring more runs ... despite losing one of their best hitters
It's remarkable that the Astros have made this comeback without Kyle Tucker, who hasn't played since June 3 due to a deep shin bruise. Remember, he was a top-five MVP candidate in the early months of the season, battling Aaron Judge for the league lead in home runs and ranking among the leaders in RBIs and OPS. Astros' right fielders have hit .under .200 with a sub-.600 OPS in his absence.
Even more remarkably, though the Astros have scored more than half a run more per game after June 18, their overall batting line has barely improved:
Through June 18: .258/.317/.415 (.733 OPS), 4.37 runs per game
Since June 19: .265/.327/.425 (.751 OPS), 4.92 runs per game
As you might expect, the Astros' situational hitting has been better (or luckier, as their baseline metrics aren't really any different): They've improved from .262 with runners in scoring position to .280. When you lose an All-Star like Tucker but start scoring more runs, that means the other big-name players have stepped up -- and it's not a surprise that Yordan Alvarez has been the centerpiece, hitting .335/.451/.618 since June 19 and closing in on a fourth straight 30-homer season.
However, Houston's secret weapon might be Yainer Diaz, who splits his time between catcher and DH (Alvarez shifts to left field when Diaz is the DH). Diaz has hit .350 since June 19 -- and despite one of the worst chase rates in the majors, he manages to be an extremely tough guy to strike out (84th percentile). It shouldn't work, but it does.
One misperception about the Astros is that they're getting old. A team that has made seven consecutive ALCS appearances has to age out at some point, right? But this remains a team with star power in its prime: Alvarez and Tucker are 27; Alex Bregman is 30; and Jose Altuve is still producing in his age-34 season. The farm system has produced Diaz (25) and Jeremy Pena (26). No, this isn't an offense on the scale of some past Houston teams, but it's more than capable -- especially if Tucker can eventually get healthy.
Alex Bregman finds his swing
During the winter, Bregman worked on his swing intensely, with the specific goal of hitting the ball harder and increasing his exit velocity. The first time he took batting practice in spring training, he could feel a difference. But swing changes can sometimes take weeks to manifest, and Bregman struggled to start the season. On May 27, he went 0-for-4 in a loss to the Mariners, sinking his slash line to .204/.270/.319.
But earlier that month, Bregman started to make an adjustment in how he swung, separating his hands further away from his body, which enabled him to swing more easily. He had been so encouraged about that change that while driving to the ballpark one day, he pulled over to take a video explaining the adjustment.
In his last 65 games since May 27, Bregman is hitting .302 and slugging .541, including 15 doubles, two triples and 15 homers. His exit velocity for the season is 89.2 mph, his highest since 2019. The Astros' turnaround coincides with his turnaround.
Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez get hot
Brown and Valdez have improved as the season has progressed, with the former maturing into the pitcher the Astros believed he could become and the latter finding the sinker that abandoned him late last season.
Brown got off to an awful start -- he was 1-5 with a 7.06 ERA through his first 10 games. Since then, he's gone 10-2 with a 2.27 ERA while holding batters to a .601 OPS, as good as any starter in the majors the past two-plus months. Brown made two significant changes to his repertoire during the season: He added a sinker -- creating a different look from his four-seam fastball, which batters had been pounding -- and is back to using his cutter more than 20% of the time (while essentially dumping his slider). He also has a changeup and knuckle-curveball that he uses primarily against left-handed batters, which has helped him to a reverse platoon split.
Valdez, too, had a bit of a slow start, but increased his use of a slider (or cutter, depending on how you define it) in recent seasons, but it might have affected the quality of his sinker -- so he has gone back to focusing on that, with a curveball and changeup also part of his arsenal. In his last start, he threw only four sliders/cutters. Since June 19, he's 8-1 with a 2.44 ERA.
Thanks in part to those pitchers' adjustments, the Houston rotation has been much improved -- even though Justin Verlander hasn't started since early June:
Rotation through June 18: 4.53 ERA, 22.0% SO rate, 30 quality starts in 73 games
Rotation since June 19: 3.32 ERA, 27.3% SO rate, 23 quality starts in 52 games
The Astros are even getting solid work from Spencer Arrighetti, who has a 3.96 ERA over his past nine starts and is averaging nearly 11 K's per nine. Ronel Blanco has remained consistent all season with a 3.14 ERA (though he did give up five runs in the Astros' loss Tuesday). With Verlander set to return this week, the Astros can line up a five-man rotation that compares favorably with Seattle's vaunted group.
They added Yusei Kikuchi at the deadline
When the Astros acquired Kikuchi from the Toronto Blue Jays ahead of the July 30 trade deadline, the broad industry response was that Houston general manager Dana Brown had paid a very high price -- maybe too high for a pitcher with an ERA much closer to 5.00 than 3.00. The Astros had surrendered Jake Bloss, a pitcher who had recently gained promotion to the big leagues; Joey Loperfido, who had posted a .933 OPS in Triple-A; and Will Wagner, the son of longtime reliever Billy Wagner.
But on the day that the deal was made, two rival executives made similar observations: Brown's history -- his strength -- is as a scout. Bloss, one executive said, had seen a dip in velocity, while Loperfido had a history of struggling to make contact and Wagner didn't have a natural position.
"Dana isn't going to make a trade based on where these guys are ranked on his prospect list," one exec said. "He's going to make his choices on how much he believes [the young players] will help the Astros moving forward. And maybe he's bundling some players who he doesn't think will be difference-makers, one way or another."
There was more nuance to Kikucki's performance, as well. He pitched well in most of the innings he had thrown, but it seemed like opponents' rallies had tended to spin off into big, ugly innings. But his performance issues, one member of the organization believed, were very fixable, meaning that his potential ceiling was higher than other available options.
Brown backed that up when the Astros acquired Kikuchi, saying that they had some changes in mind with him -- "something we've had success doing here before."
He was referring to the likes of Charlie Morton, Verlander in 2017 and Gerrit Cole, who all shifted their pitch mixes after joining the Astros. When Kikuchi was dealt to Houston, the team made the case to the veteran left-hander that if he threw his breaking ball and his changeup more often, that would make his fastball more effective -- even while being used less -- because hitters could anticipate it.
Houston has won each of Kikuchi's first four starts, and in those, he's walked seven and allowed six earned runs, while striking out 31. He has a 2.42 ERA with the Astros, with opponents hitting .191 against him. It's possible Kikuchi will be the most impactful player acquired at the deadline.
Seattle Mariners
The offense is struggling to score runs
Two games against the Detroit Tigers last week exemplified the Mariners' season-long offensive woes: Starters Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller combined for 14 scoreless innings -- and the Mariners lost both games, the second of those when Andres Munoz served up a game-losing two-run home run to Javier Baez, the first hit Munoz had allowed in 45 batters.
It's not that the offense has gotten worse since the Astros' comeback began -- it's that it was never good enough to begin with:
Through June 18: .222/.302/.372 (.674 OPS), 3.95 runs per game
Since June 19: .207/.299/.355 (.654 OPS), 3.90 runs per game
The runs per game average is a little misleading. Through June 18, they had scored two runs or fewer in 25 out of 75 games (33%). Since June 19, they've scored two or fewer in 23 out of 52 games (44%).
In the offseason, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto let Teoscar Hernandez leave as a free agent and traded Eugenio Suarez and Jarred Kelenic. He then brought in three veteran hitters to improve the team's strikeout rate. The three vets, however, haven't helped much -- the Mariners have the highest strikeout rate in the majors, and their individual contributions have been lacking:
Mitch Garver
2023: 139 OPS+ (plus-16 batting runs)
2024: 81 OPS+ (minus-7 batting runs)
Jorge Polanco
2023: 115 OPS+ (plus-5 batting runs)
2024: 94 OPS+ (minus-2 batting runs)
Mitch Haniger
2023: 74 OPS+ (minus-8 batting runs)
2024: 87 OPS+ (minus-4 batting runs)
At the trade deadline, in need of more offense, Dipoto acquired Randy Arozarena, who has gotten on base but has one home run and five RBIs in 20 games. The Mariners dumped Ty France and traded for Justin Turner, but Turner has been worse than France. The biggest disappointments, however, have come from Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford, who were both coming off excellent seasons:
Rodriguez
2023: 130 OPS+, plus-25 batting runs, 5.3 WAR
2024: 102 OPS+, plus-2 batting runs, 2.3 WAR
Crawford
2023: 133 OPS+, plus-27 batting runs, 5.1 WAR
2024: 90 OPS+, minus-4 batting runs, 1.5 WAR
J-Rod just returned from a sprained ankle and Crawford remains out with a broken finger. If those two were hitting like last year, that four-game lead the Astros have might instead be a tie atop the division.
And while Houston's clutch gene has picked up, Seattle's has regressed. Through June 18, the Mariners hit .222, 28th in the majors, but that average improved to .257 with runners in scoring position (17th in the majors). Since June 19, they've hit .207 (last in the majors) -- and just .202 with runners in scoring position (29th). Throw in a couple of blown leads from the bullpen, and the Mariners have seen their record in one-run games plummet: 17-7 through June 18 and 4-11 after.
Despite a top-tier rotation, they can't win on the road
Seattle's rotation leads the majors with a 3.27 ERA (the Philadelphia Phillies are second at 3.46). They lead in quality starts with 78 (the Phillies are second with 65). They lead in innings pitched with 740 1/3 (the Phillies are second with 720 2/3). They lead in lowest batting average (.223), lowest walk rate (5.0%, which would be the lowest since the 2005 Twins) and lowest OPS allowed (.637). It's hard to argue this isn't the best rotation in the game, and Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Bryce Miller haven't missed a start all season. It makes the fade into second place all the more frustrating.
Buried in all this dominance, however, is a bit of a dark secret: The rotation is a little more pedestrian on the road, ranking just 10th in the majors with a 4.04 ERA. Their quality start percentage drops from 71% at home to around 50% on the road. As a result, the Mariners are 37-26 at home, but 27-37 on the road. Castillo has a 2.85 ERA and 5.88 strikeout-to-walk ratio at home compared to 4.35 and 2.22 on the road. Kirby's ERA is a run higher on the road and his strikeout rate drops more than two K's per nine. Gilbert has a 2.53 ERA at home, 3.38 on the road. Miller is the most extreme, with a 2.09 ERA at home but a 4.76 ERA on the road (where his home run rate increases).
Essentially, Seattle's starters have learned to adapt to pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park by incessantly pounding the zone with strikes. They get into more pitcher's counts, leading to more strikeouts. The same approach doesn't work quite as well on the road.
(Some of this applies to the Seattle offense as well. The Mariners are 29th in OPS and runs per game at home but a more respectable 17th on the road in both categories. It's still not a good offensive team -- it still strikes out too much and the offense has nonetheless been trending in the wrong direction -- but the struggles away from home are a bit of a two-way issue.)
The bottom line
The playoff odds have now essentially flipped. FanGraphs now gives the Astros an 89.9% chance of winning the division. And the most disheartening fact for Mariners fans: They could be headed to a fourth straight winning season -- with just the one wild-card appearance to show for it. The Astros? They now have their sights on a seventh division title in eight years. The dynasty isn't in decay just yet.