NEARLY A WEEK after the trade deadline, executives around Major League Baseball are surveying the fallout from one of the most frenzied periods of trading in the game's history. And while the volume of moves at the deadline was incontrovertible, the lack of big names moving left those involved brainstorming how to make one of the best parts of the baseball calendar even better.
Everything, they said, comes back to incentive. What, in the era of expanded playoffs, can motivate teams to make deals? How, when team control over players is the guiding light for so much of their strategy, can organizations adding players find something valuable to subtract in return?
The answer, multiple executives said, becomes clear when considering the pool of available assets. In baseball, you can trade almost anything. Major league players. Minor league players. Managers. General managers. (Even wives.) There is one thing that is not available to be swapped, and it's worth around $1 billion in future value annually.
"When they let us trade draft picks," one general manager said, "that will be a game changer."
Currently, Major League Baseball allows teams to deal only a specific type of draft pick: the competitive-balance selections given to lower-revenue and smaller-market teams. All fall after the first round -- six of the 14 picks given out annually are between the first and second, with the remainder between the second and third -- and don't carry nearly as much juice as the top picks, with the No. 1 selection valued at around $50 million by teams.
MLB's reticence to allow unfettered draft-pick trades stems from a fear that teams' recklessness with draft capital would upset the balance of the game -- and potentially torpedo an organization's future. But that is outdated thinking, something commissioner Rob Manfred acknowledged to the Baseball Writers' Association of America during the All-Star break when asked about allowing the trading of all draft picks.
The earliest it could happen is in 2027, due to the current restrictions in the collective bargaining agreement. The discussion of draft picks being available to move will be a prominent part of the next round of bargaining talks upon the expiration of the basic agreement after the 2026 season.
"I don't think we have that many stupid clubs," Manfred said. "We'll see how it shakes out. We will go through our bargaining prep. The clubs are really sophisticated now. I do think that there's a really good argument for allowing them to decide how to use their resources."
MLB has suggested it would be open to dealing picks with a caveat: that it's in a hard-slotted system in which every pick comes with an assigned signing bonus. Currently, picks are given slot values that add up to a total bonus-pool number, and teams can choose how to spread their allotment among players.
Trading picks and having variable bonuses are not mutually exclusive. And considering the excitement the deadline generates for the game and the eagerness of executives to add draft picks to the asset mix, allowing the desire for hard slotting to get in the way of something that benefits the sport is too shortsighted to take root.
A potential plan is clear. There would be two periods during which the trades of draft picks would be allowed. The first would essentially kick off trade season and run from July 1 to the trade deadline. If MLB wants to keep the draft during All-Star week -- executives loathe the timing of it because it monopolizes the only mandated time off during the season, but the league likes the marriage of the game's future with its present best -- then at the very least the ability to deal draft picks adds intrigue to an event that lacks immediate resonance.
Draft-pick season could start up again during the annual general manager meetings in early November. Moving the lottery from the winter meetings to the GM meetings, when the hot stove season officially begins, would add a wrinkle to trade discussions -- and ending the draft-pick-trading window at the conclusion of the winter meetings the second week in December would give teams ample time to workshop and execute trades.
There are, of course, the natural fears of unintended consequences. As one high-ranking executive said: "Trading picks in the pool era could be pretty scary. Imagine a team finds a way to get $50 million. Tanking would be so lucrative." Capitalizing on that would require teams to float top draft picks to later rounds -- a perilous risk, and the sort of precarious bet most teams would be too fearful to make.
Making the deadline as exciting as possible should be a priority for MLB. There are other potential avenues. Some executives said the league should consider moving the deadline date back and stretching out a period of activity now confined to about two weeks after the All-Star break. As reasonable as the idea sounds -- with the postseason now consisting of 12 teams, giving teams time to separate themselves in the standings before adding makes some sense -- there are drawbacks.
It would do nothing to guarantee more activity leading up to the deadline; if teams have shown anything, whether in signing players before the 2021 lockout or negotiating arbitration salaries every year or managing trades, it's that they will wait until the very end to exert as much leverage as imaginable. Further, with teams knowing they can upgrade later in the season, it could prompt them to ignore needs in free agency, prompting a stall on movement in the winter. Compound those issues with the dissonance created by a later deadline -- if it's Aug. 31, for example, does baseball want to be a sport whose championship can be won with a team made up of players who have been in that uniform for only a month? -- and it becomes clear.
Trading draft picks is the best way to take a deadline that's the best in sports and make it even better.
Here are four other takeaways from deadline season on the minds of people around the game.
Praise for bold GMs
Aggressiveness is often in short supply during deadline season; and during an era in which computer models can be more of a deciding factor than simply a decision-making guide, the game can sometimes suffer from paralysis by analysis.
No top 100 prospects on the list from ESPN's Kiley McDaniel were traded last week. The closest was outfielder Aidan Smith, who went from the Seattle Mariners to the Tampa Bay Rays in the deal for outfielder Randy Arozarena, and Smith is more a back-of-the-list type than a sure thing.
This was less about the number of excellent big leaguers available -- Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. were certainly worthy of movement -- and more about organizations believing they have more information than ever to predict those likeliest to succeed at the major league level.
Which makes the moves of A.J. Preller, Dave Dombrowski and Andrew Friedman that much more unique. Preller is the San Diego Padres' swashbuckling GM who traded seven prospects for two relievers. Dombrowski is the Philadelphia Phillies' president of baseball operations who dealt a pair of pitching prospects for a rental reliever. Friedman, the Los Angeles Dodgers' president of baseball operations, saw opportunity where others didn't and pounced.
Preller, as he so often has, went full send, acquiring closer Tanner Scott and reliever Jason Adam while believing the clearest path to getting past the National League Championship Series goes through the bullpen. The trade market lacked impact starting pitching beyond Jack Flaherty, and even though Scott is an impending free agent, Miami Marlins GM Peter Bendix held out -- and received -- a large return, due in part to Dombrowski's deal for Los Angeles Angels closer Carlos Estevez earlier in the week.
Dombrowski's history of forget-them-kids trades informs his decision to send right-hander George Klassen and left-hander Samuel Aldegheri to the Angels for Estevez. Dombrowski's approach is simple: He identifies players he likes, and he gets them. The model might not like the decision, but, like Preller, he believes in his organization's ability to draft domestic players, sign international players, develop both and replenish his farm system. The win-now mode runs in contrast to other organizations' tilt toward trying to balance the future. Dombrowski certainly cares about his team's future; if he didn't, he would've moved Aidan Miller and Andrew Painter and Starlyn Caba and Mick Abel and the rest of the Phillies' best prospects. He simply exists more on the now end of the continuum, and as organizations zig toward that, he'll happily zag the other way.
Friedman offers perhaps the best balance of the two. Los Angeles has long coveted Tommy Edman, whose unique skill set -- he plays shortstop, second base and center field at above-average levels and hits from the right and left sides -- fits its platonic ideal of a player. When the Dodgers realized there was little traction on a deal between the Chicago White Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals, they inserted themselves as a middleman, offering Chicago prospects and landing Edman in the process. The deadline's lone three-way trade illustrated how information and creativity can carve a pathway to a deal.
And the Dodgers' aggressiveness didn't end there. They were able to land Flaherty from the Detroit Tigers in part because their excellence in developing catching prospects allowed them to give up Thayron Liranzo and in part due to their previous moves -- an offseason trade with the New York Yankees for shortstop Trey Sweeney, who helped close this deal with the Tigers
The deadline is only as good as those in charge of baseball operations are willing to make it. And with the game, as one longtime baseball person put it, having "too many models and not enough cowboys," the ones confident enough to wade into tricky waters stand out all the more.
The spread of the Rays Way
So much of the action at the 2024 deadline can be traced back two decades. In 2003, Rays owner Stuart Sternberg hired Friedman to work for the front office. Two years later, at 28 years old, Friedman took over as the team's GM. And over the next decade, before he went to Los Angeles, he filled his staff with executives who later would populate front offices around baseball.
Bendix, whose six trades helped drive the market and completely overhauled the Marlins? A Rays alum.
Erik Neander, the Rays' president of baseball operations who despite an over-.500 record took advantage of the extreme market to position Tampa Bay extraordinarily well going forward? Hired by Friedman.
Matt Arnold (Milwaukee Brewers president of baseball operations), Chaim Bloom (Cardinals adviser and former Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer), James Click (Toronto Blue Jays adviser and former Houston Astros GM), Dan Feinstein (Oakland Athletics assistant GM) and Ani Kilambi (Phillies assistant GM) all spent considerable time with the Rays.
The notion that the Rays are strictly a model-oriented team is a falsehood perpetuated by ignorance. Just because they have historically prioritized value doesn't make them a group of eggheads. Tampa Bay's scouting apparatus is robust and excellent. The Rays have more than just a willingness to listen to all perspectives on players; it is, given their slim payroll, a necessity to ensure the right sort of decision-making.
And in the case of the 2024 deadline, the Rays saw the trajectory of their season, as well as the ability to capitalize on the market, and made decisive choices. Trading Arozarena, Adam, third baseman Isaac Paredes, starters Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale, utilityman Amed Rosario, and relievers Shawn Armstrong and Phil Maton turned over nearly one-third of their roster, and they returned a mix of players who will help in 2025 -- when their pitching staff projects as one of the best in the American League -- and in the future. Already, with Junior Caminero, Carson Williams and Xavier Isaac, the Rays had one of the best prospect trios in baseball. The deadline deepened their system and fortified it as one of the best in baseball.
Not every team is capable of operating with the clarity of purpose that defines the Rays. Some have ownership that wouldn't allow it; others have fan bases that would rebel. The deals aren't always easy. The Rays are not robots. They have a front office culture among the best in the game. But they value winning, and to win within their constraints, they believe this approach is best. With all their success and that of their alums, it's tough to suggest otherwise.
An expected rush on bullpen arms
The San Diego Padres were the best example of this, and the Phillies prioritized it, but the number of relief pitchers dealt at the deadline reinforces a truism in modern baseball: A bullpen can carry a team deep into the postseason.
A cursory look at the number of innings over the past 10 years thrown by relief pitchers in the postseason as compared with the regular season tells the story; here are the numbers from Evan Garcia of ESPN Stats & Information:
More and more, October is a bullpen-driven month, which makes sense. During the regular season, teams generally receive one day off a week. The volume of games typically precludes managers turning to relievers on more than back-to-back days. In the postseason, teams are rarely scheduled to play more than two days in a row. The days of rest give well-worn arms much-needed recharges.
Between the readiness of relievers and the urgent nature of the format -- teams no longer think anything of yanking a struggling starter at the beginning of a win-or-go-home game -- by the postseason, the starter is no longer the main attraction. He'll throw about as many innings as his bullpen counterparts.
So, although it's ideal to have good starting pitching -- it's still preferable, of course -- it's not necessary. In the case of the Padres, they have arms with front-line stuff who often run into pitch-count issues (Dylan Cease, Michael King), so the ability for manager Mike Shildt to match up by platoon or strength with Scott, Adam, Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada or Adrian Morejon makes an early deficit to San Diego a dangerous proposition.
A team such as the Kansas City Royals, on the other hand, wasn't complementing a back-of-the-bullpen strength like San Diego. The Royals' relief corps this season has been a mess. So, when it came to cost, Kansas City figured it would pay what the market was asking, and in the case of Hunter Harvey and Lucas Erceg, it was a lot. But the Royals don't simply aspire to make the playoffs. They want to win. And winning in October doesn't happen without talented arms in the bullpen.
Over the last three days before the deadline, contenders acquired more than two dozen relievers. Even teams on the periphery of the playoff hunt didn't ignore them. Of the 18 teams that prioritized adding at the deadline, 16 acquired at least one reliever. The two exceptions: the Cleveland Guardians, who sport the best bullpen ERA in MLB, and the Astros, whose Tayler Scott-Bryan Abreu-Ryan Pressly-Josh Hader back of the bullpen is one of the game's best.
What it means for the future
For all of the consternation over the deals that never came to be, there is solace. The winter ahead won't just consist of googly eyes at Juan Soto's contract and dreaming of where Corbin Burnes will land. For as much discussion as there will be about Roki Sasaki potentially coming stateside and the value of a first baseman vis-à-vis Pete Alonso, the names that didn't move at this deadline will resurface and drive enough trade chatter to keep the hot stove crackling.
At the forefront will be Crochet and Robert, both of whom are expected to move as the full deconstruction of a historically bad White Sox team reaches its apex (or, depending on one's perspective, nadir).
No longer will Crochet's acquisition come with the caveat that he needs a contract extension to pitch in the postseason. Provided he makes it through this season healthy, he'll be primed to pitch a full 2025 campaign and will enter the year as one of the best starters in the big leagues on an extremely team-friendly contract. Because his salary in his first arbitration season was $800,000 -- just $60,000 above the major league minimum -- Crochet's cost over the next two seasons, before he reaches free agency, will be even lower than typical in a system that suppresses wages.
Robert, meanwhile, will be available in a free agent field light on center fielders. The up-the-middle paucity actually bodes well for the Blue Jays should they decide to move shortstop Bo Bichette in the offseason. Dealing a player coming off a season that has gone as poorly as Bichette's is fraught, but teams with shortstop holes might find paying for Bichette preferable to spending in free agency on Willy Adames (who's going to get a bag) or shopping with others.
Other stars will be in the mix too. If Houston continues balking at the $300 million price tag outfielder Kyle Tucker's contract is bound to warrant as a free agent after the 2025 season, would it consider moving him? Will bombing out in the postseason prompt a contender to make an offer for Skubal that Tigers GM Scott Harris simply can't turn down? Are Cleveland and Milwaukee, two organizations with tremendous histories of building bullpen arms, primed to cash in on Emmanuel Clase and Devin Williams, respectively?
Whether at the top end or in the middle tier -- Luis Rengifo, Tyler Anderson and a coterie of other Angels, fly on up -- the excitement of this winter is already percolating. Much like its season, baseball's offseason lasts longer than that of its fellow major men's sports, sometimes dragging along but typically barreling toward something good. Considering all the deals at this trade deadline and the irons in the fire that will continue burning, that something is a winter of action.