MLB trade deadline 2024: Intel from Olney, Passan

It's MLB trade deadline week!

While this year's moves were late to start, things heated up with the Seattle Mariners acquiring Randy Arozarena and the New York Yankees getting Jazz Chisholm Jr. among several intriguing moves over the weekend.

Now, with less than 48 hours remaining to deal before the 6 p.m. ET deadline arrives on Tuesday, conversations involving big names including Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers pitcher Jack Flaherty, Los Angeles Angels All-Star Tyler Anderson and Miami Marlins closer Tanner Scott continue to circulate through the industry.

Which players will move in the final days? Which teams will go all-in to add the best available players? And which moves so far will have the biggest impact on the rest of the season? We enlisted ESPN MLB insiders Buster Olney and Jeff Passan to offer up their latest intel as the deadline nears.

This deadline picked up over the weekend after a slow start. What are you hearing could keep things moving along in the final hours?

Olney: Because there are so few dealers, the market has relatively few players available, so teams with needs will keep circling back and circling back and maybe hold their noses a bit before paying prices they don't want to pay for players who aren't perfect fits. There are adders who refuse to be empty-handed by the time we get to the deadline. The Los Angeles Dodgers. The Boston Red Sox. The Yankees. With another tough loss on Sunday -- one-run losses are a theme for them this year -- the Cincinnati Reds are moving closer to being dealers. Frankie Montas and some of their relievers are drawing attention.

Passan: Competition. Teams are blanching at the prices for players now, but that is a consequence of a market with so few available who can provide instant impact. The return for Carlos Estevez and Jason Adam staggered GMs who were in search of relief pitching and emboldened those with it to stick to their initial asks -- and the game of chicken is thus on. But at the end of the day, contenders know they need more, teams subtracting need to take advantage of a fantastic dealers' market and the place in-between represents the deal zone.

Of the trades that have been completed so far, which deal do you think will have the biggest impact on the rest of the season?

Olney: The Philadelphia Phillies are already the team to beat, with both a deep lineup and rotation. The only real question was whether they could construct a bullpen that would serve as an October fortress, and now they've landed Carlos Estevez, arguably the best available reliever, on top of Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Jose Alvarado. They're also in position to turn one of their starters into a reliever in the playoffs -- maybe Cristopher Sanchez. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski knows how to build well-rounded rosters, and he has likely done his heavy lifting for this deadline already, with the addition of Estevez and outfielder Austin Hays.

Passan: The American League West is baseball's most tightly bunched division, and the Seattle Mariners' aggressiveness in trading for outfielder Randy Arozarena should help stanch the open wound that has been their offense. Arozarena is not Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani, but for a team whose offense has been positively unsightly -- and that was before injuries to Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford -- he represents a major upgrade. The Mariners aren't suddenly some sort of offensive juggernaut with Arozarena, but considering they're in a virtual tie with the Houston Astros for first place and the Texas Rangers are hanging around just 4½ games back, every little bit helps -- and Arozarena is capable of plenty more than that.

We've seen varying activity levels from the World Series favorites. What are you hearing about the last-minute plans for the Orioles, Phillies, Dodgers and Guardians?

Olney: The Cleveland Guardians are looking for a starting pitcher and some kind of hitter, although they are reluctant to part with any of their better prospects. The Dodgers continue to work on getting a starting pitcher. If they want to go with a no-strings-attached guy, then Jack Flaherty is the market's best option; if they aren't afraid of Garrett Crochet's contract demands, they could land perhaps the greatest difference-maker of the trade market. So often in Andrew Friedman's tenure as leader of the Dodgers, he lands the best and the biggest at the deadline, and rival executives say that L.A. is flashing its wallet -- and is willing to take on dollars in a way that other teams are not. Other teams say the Baltimore Orioles are looking for a right-handed hitter, and are willing to take on money in order to make it happen.

Passan: The Orioles have made one trade from prospect depth and financial strength (Zach Eflin) and another need-for-need deal with a team they could face in the World Series (getting Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache for Austin Hays). They still have a quiver of arrows to fire, whether it's turning major league depth (Ryan Mountcastle or Cedric Mullins) into something or using a prospect package to get more or less whoever they want. With less than 48 hours until the deadline, their true intentions will be clear soon enough. Though it's impossible to count Dave Dombrowski out on any deal, the Phillies have addressed their desires with Estevez and Hays. The Dodgers have the farm system to get anyone, but they could try to swing a deal with St. Louis for super-utilityman Tommy Edman, whose positional flexibility and switch-hitting fit a need. The balance of the market severely in the favor of subtracting teams will force Cleveland to go against its every instinct, but the need for another starter is very real, and a bat for a team shut out in five of its past 13 games would help mightily, too.

Both New York teams have made trades to help their lineups. What are you hearing the Yankees and Mets could do next?

Olney: What you hear from other teams is that the New York Mets will continue to look for ways to round out their roster. The Yankees' needs are more substantive -- they need two relievers, as this series against the Red Sox this weekend has shown, and they prefer a left-hander and a right-hander. But they also need a thumper for the middle of their lineup. Their hope is that Jazz Chisholm Jr. might provide lineup protection for Juan Soto and Aaron Judge from the leadoff spot, by getting on base and forcing pitchers to work to the sluggers, but the Yankees still need a cleanup hitter who can protect from that spot. Isaac Paredes would have fit that need, but he was dealt to the Chicago Cubs on Sunday afternoon.

Passan: Fair or not, both teams are going to be tied to the biggest mystery this deadline: reigning National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell. In his past four starts, he has been beyond brilliant. But because of his contract -- with an opt-out he'll exercise if he continues to pitch well or a $31 million player option for 2025 he could trigger if he doesn't -- teams will be loath to give the San Francisco Giants the sort of return a player with Snell's ceiling warrants. Certainly after the injuries to Kodai Senga and Christian Scott the Mets could use a pitcher of his caliber, while the Yankees' rotation since their 50-22 start has the worst ERA in the AL (5.34) and second worst in MLB behind only the Colorado Rockies. Starting pitching help might not be their priority, though, considering the acute need for at least one bullpen arm and a productive bat to lengthen their lineup.

The White Sox hold two of this deadline's biggest chips. What's the latest on Chicago's plans for Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr.?

Olney: I've heard skepticism from some other teams that the White Sox will trade either of those guys, and that they believe it's more likely that general manager Chris Getz will hold on to them into the winter, when he might be able to involve more teams in talks. But some rival executives believe that the Dodgers and the White Sox could be working on a multiplayer deal, because the Dodgers won't be afraid of Crochet's contract demands -- and Friedman thinks big.

Passan: Teams are still workshopping through how Crochet's desire to pitch through only the regular season and shut himself down before the playoffs -- unless he receives a contract extension -- affects their offers. The decision by Crochet certainly impacted his market and put Getz in a bind, particularly because so much of the White Sox's future rides on his ability to turn Crochet, Robert, Erick Fedde and others into a substantial part of the team's core for the next decade. The White Sox will make a number of trades before the deadline. Whether it involves the big names -- a deal for Robert is seen as unlikely but deadline day can bring out desperation in a team seeking upgrades -- or they go this winter remains undetermined.

Who are some other available players you are hearing discussed most by front offices?

Olney: Tanner Scott of the Miami Marlins is going to move. Teams love the strikeouts, and while they aren't so wild about his erratic command, there's enough interest that he's going to go. Los Angeles Angels reliever Luis Garcia is going to be moved, and given the need for starting pitching in the market, it would make sense for someone to step up and make a deal for All-Star Tyler Anderson, too.

Passan: Because the asks in return for the top-end players are exorbitant, some teams, fearful that they'll be left without a chair when the music stops, will start turning Monday to Plans B and C. While teams can always hold on to players with control, free-agents-to-be such as Blue Jays left-hander Yusei Kikuchi and White Sox outfielder Tommy Pham are guaranteed to move. Beyond dreaming of acquiring the most desirable names who will take king's ransoms to move -- Detroit left-hander Tarik Skubal, Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Crochet and Robert -- the most popular targets are Flaherty, Angels infielder Luis Rengifo and left-hander Tyler Anderson, Rays closer Pete Fairbanks, A's reliever Lucas Erceg and Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan.

Which other teams are you hearing could be the most active before the deadline arrives?

Olney: Other teams are convinced that the Astros will jump in to make deals at some point, and that the Rangers will add a hitter -- maybe Yandy Diaz. The Rays are at the center of a lot of what has gone on so far, and they've got more work to do, with Diaz, Pete Fairbanks, etc.

Passan: The Rays never lack creativity. With as many players as they still have to move, they could, if so motivated, take from their plethora of prospects and starting pitching depth and make a deal with an eye toward the future. The White Sox need to start moving players so they don't get squeezed at the deadline. Among Rengifo, Anderson, Garcia and outfielders Taylor Ward and Kevin Pillar, the Angels still have plenty of opportunity to cash in beyond the Estevez return. And the Nationals, between outfielder Lane Thomas and their gang of relievers (Finnegan, Dylan Floro, Derek Law), could be busy. In terms of teams adding: The Yankees have work to do, the Astros need to make at least one move, the Atlanta Braves are poised to add in hopes of turning around a disappointing season, and the Royals would like a bat and a relief arm.

What else are you hearing ahead of the deadline?

Olney: There is a lot of frustration with the high asking prices of the dealers, as well as the lack of available players.

Passan: The posturing is over. Teams always spring to action with deadlines -- whether it's arbitration season or in free agency before the 2021-22 lockout -- and this week will be no different. There is plenty of action coming. Perhaps not the sorts of names that make for sexy headlines, but ones that will unquestionably play a role in helping crown a World Series champion.