The development and improvement of young players is unpredictable, uncertain and sometimes very sudden. Last year, we did a post-hype check-in on several young players at the end of May. One of the players we examined was Bobby Witt Jr.
The second-year shortstop had a solid rookie season in 2022, but it was more flash than substance: power (20 home runs) and speed (30 stolen bases), but poor defense and a sub-.300 on-base percentage. By the end of May last season, he had yet to improve, hitting .228/.266/.430. Then everything clicked. In July and August, Witt hit .325 with 15 home runs. He finished the season at .276/.319/.495 with 30 home runs, 49 stolen bases and 4.4 WAR. He has been even better so far this season. In less than a year, he went from having an undetermined future to being one of the best players in the game.
Now let's do another post-hype check-in with a new group of players. Our rules: No rookies, no players we discussed in last year's edition and no players who have already proven themselves or received plenty of attention, such as Gunnar Henderson, Elly De La Cruz or Anthony Volpe. We're thinking of players who were hyped as prospects and kind of forgotten about since then. We'll include a prospect report from Kiley McDaniel and each player's top ranking on McDaniel's preseason top 100 lists.
Showing some success
Brice Turang, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
Peak ESPN prospect ranking: No. 72 (2023)
Comment then: "Turang has been famous to scouts for years, looking like a real candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick as early as his sophomore year of high school in Southern California. Turang's star dimmed a bit in the year before the draft, slipping to the 21st overall pick in 2018, but the basic scouting report has been the same for a long time. He is an above-average runner with an above-average arm and glove at shortstop, a solid approach, and average raw power from the left side."
2024: .299/.367/.412, 3 HR, 21 RBI, 20 SB
Turang struggled as a rookie in 2023, hitting .218/.285/.300 with just 18 extra-base hits in 404 at-bats. Among the 212 players with at least 400 plate appearances, only Tim Anderson had a lower OPS. He offered plus defense at second and speed on the bases, but the showing at the plate was so poor that he projected as more of a utility player than a regular.
Turang hasn't torn the league up or anything, but he has added a little more strength and improved his average exit velocity by 3 mph. That has helped him produce a much higher batting average and 15 extra-base hits so far, already nearly matching his 2023 output even though the ball is clearly a little less lively this season.
Turang adds a lot of value from doing the little things that don't necessarily pop out: He's 19-for-20 stealing bases, he has excellent range at second base and he controls the strike zone. His arm probably limits his long-term future to second base (with Joey Ortiz the likely successor at shortstop if Willy Adames leaves as a free agent), and the raw power may never get to average. Still, Turang now looks like he's going to be a reliable, sneaky-good player, one of those who will be consistently underrated because he won't be mashing a lot of home runs.
Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Peak ESPN prospect ranking: No. 8 (2022)
Comment then: "He's a potential ace who is basically plus at everything from stuff to feel to frame to analytics to makeup to demonstrated improvement. Some evaluators are skeptical of right-handers whose best off-speed pitch is a changeup, thinking that points to a potential weakness in a breaking ball and eventually trouble getting whiffs, but both of Rodriguez's breaking balls are 55-or-60-grade pitches and his changeup is merely a 65-grade pitch."
2024: 5-2, 3.53 ERA, 51 IP, 21 BB, 61 SO, 5 HR
Rodriguez was set to begin the 2023 season at Triple-A Norfolk, but when Kyle Bradish took a line drive off his foot in his first start, the Orioles needed a starter and Rodriguez got the call. He had back-to-back scoreless outings in April, but a series of bad starts in May left him with a 7.35 ERA and a demotion back to Norfolk.
He returned in July a different pitcher. His command improved, and he focused primarily on a three-pitch arsenal: Four-seamer, changeup and sweeper/slider -- throwing his curveball less and essentially junking an ineffective cutter. Rodriguez's 2.59 ERA in the second half was second best among qualified starters, although his season ended on a sour note in the playoffs, getting knocked out in the second inning against the Rangers.
Rodriguez remains reliant on the fastball/changeup combo, throwing those two pitches nearly 70% of the time. Against right-handed batters, the slider becomes his primary breaking ball, while he prefers his curveball against lefties. As Kiley's scouting report indicated, his changeup remains a great pitch and has helped him to a reverse platoon split so far. He did miss nearly three weeks with shoulder inflammation, but he's back and he fanned a career-high 10 batters on May 28 against the Red Sox.
Rodriguez has a chance to become an ace -- but he's not there yet. He needs to improve the fastball command as he's walking 3.7 batters per nine. It's also not clear out how much advantage he gains from Camden Yards: He throws that 96 mph four-seamer up in the zone, which makes him a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher. Combine the deep left-field fence at Camden with this year's ball, and he has a 2.12 ERA at home compared to 5.48 on the road (small sample size caveat). Still, he has four plus pitches, and his overall whiff rate in 2024 ranks eighth among pitchers with at least 50 innings. Durability and health issues aside, he remains on track to become a No. 1 starter if he can tighten up that walk rate.
Nick Lodolo, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Peak ESPN prospect ranking: No. 79 (2022)
Comment then: "Analytic models that every team uses grade his changeup as a plus pitch due to movement, but it plays closer to a 55 to the eye and he threw it only 9% of the time. Regardless, Lodolo at times has shown three 60-grade pitches and average or better command in his best outings, leading to top-10 pick and frontline starter projections, but he looks a little more like a third/fourth starter now, though some analytics would say that's light."
2024: 5-2, 3.11 ERA, 46.1 IP, 10 BB, 49 SO, 4 HR
After a strong rookie showing in 2022 (3.66 ERA, 11.4 K's per nine), Lodolo made just seven starts last season because of a stress fracture in his left tibia and has had two IL stints this season with a calf strain and groin strain, but he has been effective in the seven starts he has made. Lodolo sits 93-94 mph with his four-seamer, but his best pitch is a wipeout curveball that has generated a 50% whiff rate -- much like it did in 2022, when it generated a 46% miss rate.
A second key to his early success, however, has been an improved changeup that he throws to right-handed batters. It wasn't too effective in 2022 or 2023, but it has helped prevent batters from sitting on the four-seamer. Against right-handers, he tries pounding the four-seamer in while keeping the changeup low and away.
Unlike Rodriguez, Lodolo's home park works against him, but otherwise I like what I see here. The injuries are worth watching, but they haven't been to his arm, and the Reds haven't exactly excelled at developing their starting pitchers. Still, Lodolo has made a big step forward so far -- as has teammate Hunter Greene -- and I would suggest he does indeed look like more than a third or fourth starter if he can prove he's durable enough.
Zach Neto, SS, Los Angeles Angels
Peak ESPN prospect ranking: No. 84 (2023)
Comment then: "Neto has a busy, max-effort swing that most scouts think he'll have to dial down when facing 95-plus mph on a regular basis, which would cut into his deceptively good exit velos and overall power production given his size. A 10-15 homer likelihood eats into his overall upside, but he may be plus at everything else on the field and has lots of pro scouting support for his ranking after an excellent 30-game stint in Double-A after signing."
2024: .250/.300/.403, 6 HR, 19 RBI
Neto was rushed to the majors with just 48 games of minor league experience after being drafted 13th overall out of Campbell University in 2022, and he has held his own with a league-average adjusted OPS. He actually has a chance to be more than a 10-15 homer guy as he has hit 15 across his two seasons in 138 games. His exit velocities aren't elite, so he needs to clean up his chase rate to swing at more strikes because his offensive value is going to depend more on batting average and line drives than raw power.
Neto's defensive upside remains in question as the metrics differ on his ability. DRS rates him about average, but Statcast doesn't like his range so far in 2024, putting him in the 2nd percentile (low is bad). His arm strength is good enough to stay at short, and he has above-average speed, so the tools are there. Neto remains raw in the little things, maybe not surprising given his quick trek to the majors: He chases too much, his baserunning is poor (6-for-12 stealing bases) and the defense could improve. He's kind of the opposite in this regard from Turang, who does all those little things. Neto's ability to improve in these areas will be the difference between him being a first-division shortstop or a second-division one.
Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Peak ESPN prospect ranking: No. 32 (2023)
Comment then: "Pfaadt took even another step forward in 2022, dominating Double-A and Triple-A over 167 innings, with scouts raving about his feel and competitiveness while penciling him in as a mid-rotation fit as soon as the middle of 2023."
2024: 2-4, 4.32 ERA, 73 IP, 14 BB, 71 SO, 7 HR
We remember Pfaadt from October, when he was a key reason the Diamondbacks reached the World Series. After a rough season overall (5.72 ERA) that included a stint back in Triple-A, Pfaadt hit his stride in the postseason with a 3.27 ERA across five starts, including scoreless starts against the Dodgers and Phillies. Moving from the far third-base side of the rubber to the far first-base side, a move initiated when he was in the minors, led to improvement in the second half.
Pfaadt isn't overpowering (his four-seamer averages 92.9 mph), and he relies on that feel and competitiveness that Kiley mentioned in last year's scouting report. The sweeper is his big swing-and-miss offering, along with a changeup he throws to lefties. He also has a sinker that he primarily uses against righties. He has pitched a little better than that 4.16 ERA might suggest, while posting an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's allowed a .321 average with runners in scoring position, which could be noise or something going on while pitching from the stretch. The sweeper, while inducing a 36% whiff rate, has also been hammered for five home runs, so he has a tendency to leave it in the middle of the zone at times (and three of the seven home runs he has allowed have been three-run home runs).
For the most part, though, this is the pitcher we saw in October. In a sense, he's similar to teammate Zac Gallen as a pitcher who will rely on outsmarting batters and inducing chase swings out of the zone. That "mid-rotation" fit seems to apply to what we've seen so far -- but, as with Gallen, don't count out the possibility of Pfaadt exceeding that level.
Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies
Peak ESPN prospect ranking: No. 35 (2023)
Comment then: "Tovar has good feel for the bat head, is a plus defender at a key position, and had a breakout 2022 at the plate. As a 20-year-old, he went from Double-A to the big leagues, hitting 15 homers and stealing 17 bases. There are some question marks in his profile though: Tovar swings a bit too often, and that hasn't kept him from succeeding in the minors, but could in the big leagues. If he doesn't improve there, Tovar will be slightly below league average at the plate, but helped by Coors and his standout glove, so probably just a low-end regular."
2024: .297/.329/.481, 8 HR, 24 RBI
The Rockies signed Tovar to a seven-year, $63.5 million extension in spring training coming off a rookie season in which he posted 2.5 WAR. Tovar's defense alone is good enough that it's hard to see that contract turning into a bad investment, but the concerns about his offense remain, meaning the contract may not end up as a bargain for Colorado, either.
Simply put, Tovar will swing at anything between here and Mars. He's actually striking out more often than last season and is battling for the overall MLB lead in strikeouts -- despite those issues, he has put up an above-average adjusted OPS thanks to 25 extra-base hits. The Statcast numbers also suggest he has been a little lucky on his balls in play, so we'll see whether he can keep that batting average up. A potential Gold Glove shortstop who might get to 70 extra-base hits is a valuable player -- indeed, he's already at 2.3 WAR -- but there's also a chance Tovar's offensive production slips back to last year's level if he can't clean up his approach at least a little bit.
The jury remains out
Sal Frelick, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Peak ESPN prospect ranking: No. 45 (2023)
Comment then: "He fits the en vogue progressive mold of a hitter, a player with shorter arms to make contact easily but enough innate strength to create average power and avoid being totally one-dimensional. Frelick has plus-plus contact skills and above-average pitch selection along with plus speed and an intense mentality. His limitation is that he probably will hit just 10 to 15 homers annually, with more gap power than anything else."
2024: .257/.340/.339, 2 HR, 13 RBI
Nothing has really changed from that scouting report. There just isn't much pop here as Frelick ranks in the 7th percentile in average exit velocity and 2nd percentile in hard-hit rate (percentage of balls hit at 95 mph or higher). The Brewers have primarily used him as a platoon outfielder across all three outfield positions, playing him against right-handers. He makes enough contact and draws enough walks to at least post an OK on-base percentage, but it's hard to see him advancing past fourth-outfielder status at this point. If his defense was better, you could envision a center fielder who hits at the bottom of the order, but Frelick ranks behind teammates Blake Perkins and Jackson Chourio in that department.
Bo Naylor, C, Cleveland Guardians
Peak ESPN prospect ranking: No. 91 (2023)
Comment then: "Naylor has an excellent approach, good-not-great contact skills and 55-grade raw power along with sneaky average speed. He split time between third base and catcher as an amateur and has slowly improved behind the plate to where I think he'll be an average defender with an average arm within a year or two."
2024: .173/.250/.263, 3 HR, 12 RBI
Naylor hit well in his 67-game stint as a rookie (.237/.339/.470), leading to hope that he could develop into a catching version of his teammate and older brother. Instead, the bat has been nonexistent. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has deteriorated from 1.77 to 4.00. Hitting is hard! Naylor was like this in the minor leagues as well, hitting .189 in Double-A in 2021 before improving to .263 with a high walk rate in 2022. When Naylor does make contact, he's fine, with a 50th-percentile hard-hit rate; he just hasn't made enough contact. The good news is his defense has developed as he rates as an excellent pitch framer -- a valuable skill, at least until robot umps come along.
Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets
Peak ESPN prospect ranking: No. 20 (2023)
Comment then: "At the plate, he has an average hit tool and pitch selection -- have to hope those don't end up being a notch or two lower -- with 25-30 home run upside if it all clicks."
2024: .225/.304/.325, 4 HR, 16 RBI
It hasn't clicked. Baty now has 600 MLB plate appearances with a line of .214/.281/.325. Other than bat speed and walk rate, his Statcast metrics are all well below average. He just doesn't barrel up enough balls, and when he does, he lacks the power to get to that 25-30 home run upside scouts once saw. The Mets don't appear to be going anywhere, so they should continue to see what they have here -- at least Baty's defense at third has improved -- but they might head into 2025 looking for a new third baseman.
Henry Davis, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
Peak ESPN prospect ranking: No. 39 (2022)
Comment then: "He now has 70-grade raw power with the swing and approach to make the most of it, along with enough bat control and pitch selection to also post a solid OBP and get good pitches to hit. Defensively, he's now a real work in progress, grading no better than a 30 or 40 for most scouts, deficient in basically every area except for arm strength."
2024: .162/.280/.206, 0 HR, 4 RBI
Davis was the first pick of the 2021 draft, and you obviously need to hit a home run with the No. 1 selection. To be fair to the Pirates, there wasn't a consensus top player that year, with the rest of the top 10 picks consisting of Jack Leiter, Jackson Jobe, Marcelo Mayer, Colton Cowser, Jordan Lawlar, Frank Mozzicato, Benny Montgomery, Sam Bachman and Kumar Rocker. Nobody has broken out from that group, although the two high school shortstops (Mayer and Lawlar, who topped most boards) remain excellent prospects.
When Davis reached the majors last year, the Pirates forced him into right field, as Endy Rodriguez had passed him on the catching depth chart. Davis was predictably awful out there, but when Rodriguez blew out his elbow in winter ball, Davis got his first chance to start at catcher in the big leagues. It did not go well and Davis just got called back up from Triple-A (where he was performing well, with seven home runs and 1.078 OPS in 23 games). It's certainly too early to write him off, but he just hasn't hit as well as projected coming out of Louisville. Even Davis' exit velocity metrics have been below average and his approach hasn't been as advanced as projected either. There are certainly Joey Bart vibes here -- although, interestingly enough, Bart is now with the Pirates and was hitting well while replacing Davis as the starting catcher until an injury landed him on the IL.
Jordan Walker, RF, St. Louis Cardinals
Peak ESPN prospect ranking: No. 14 (2023)
Comment then: "St. Louis took him a bit earlier than some thought he would go at 21st overall, and he immediately made the Cardinals look smart by putting up startling exit velocities while bullying pitchers years older than him and reaching Double-A in 2022 as a teenager."
2024: .155/.239/.259, 0 HR, 4 RBI
I don't know what's going on here, either. Walker started last year in the majors and was miscast as a right fielder after playing mostly third base in the minors then got sent down after slumping, but then he hit well when he returned to St. Louis, finishing at .276/.342/.445 with 16 home runs. Not superstar stuff, but a 113 OPS+ as a 21-year-old rookie is a promising debut.
After struggling in 20 games to begin 2024, Walker was sent down to Triple-A Memphis and has responded by hitting no home runs in 101 at-bats. Ouch. The goal was for Walker to work on lifting the ball more as he had a 50% ground ball rate in the majors. It certainly made sense to let Walker work on his swing in the minors rather than trying to fix things on the fly with the big league club, which was off to a bad start, but there is still a lot of work to be done. Look, Walker is just 22, he has had some success already in the majors, he's big and strong, and he doesn't strike out excessively. The tools that made him the No. 14 prospect a year ago are still here. Maybe, like with Witt last season, it will suddenly click.