The deal: Marlins trade IF/DH Luis Arraez to Padres for OF Dillon Head, OF Jakob Marsee, RHP Woo-Suk Go and 1B Nathan Martorella.
Yes, we have a major MLB trade to evaluate on the first weekend of May. The Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres got trade season started early with a deal sending two-time batting champion Luis Arraez to San Diego for a group of prospects. Who got the better of the deal? (Spoiler alert: It's not close.)
Let's grade it.
Padres: The Padres have lengthened their lineup and balanced it all at once by acquiring Arraez, the best bat-on-ball wizard to don their uniform since Tony Gwynn. Arraez will slot into the lineup as the leadoff hitter and as long as he keeps doing what he does, he'll set the table for a strong middle of the order in Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado.
Machado served as San Diego's primary DH this season while he rehabbed an elbow injury. He returned to third base last week, and while his elbow will have to be monitored, his duty at the hot corner left the Padres short a DH. That shouldn't be a thing on a deep roster, but the Padres don't have a deep roster, and Arraez is a very fancy solution to this dilemma.
San Diego's offense has been better than average and Arraez's skill set adds to the team's best traits of hitting for average and limiting whiffs. Indeed, his presence should move the Padres into the top 10 in these areas. You'd like to see a little more consistent pop behind him down through the order. Failing that, it would be good if Arraez were more dynamic on the basepaths, which is only one area in which the comparisons to Gwynn begin to fall apart.
In the concerns category, you have to worry about whether Arraez -- a 27-year-old infielder -- will adapt gracefully to being a full-time DH. The Padres can work him into a defensive role now and again but when they do, it will weaken an infield defense that is one of the strengths of the club. He can play outfield in a pinch, but it's not something you want to overdo. Arraez makes sense on paper as the every-day DH. But any drop-off in average from Arraez if he has trouble with the role would submarine the move because so much of his value is tied to that category.
Holding back the grade for San Diego is the aggregate future value of the prospects. According to ESPN's Kiley McDaniel, the FVs are as follows: 50 for Head, 45+ for Marsee and 40+ for Martorella. Go isn't a prospect -- he is a veteran reliever out of the KBO who signed a two-year, $4.5 million contract over the winter -- but if he can find his footing in the U.S. (he has not so far, either this spring or in Double-A) he'll have value as well.
The thing is, the Padres keep coming up short in the depth department, in part because they keep packaging prospects in this way and overspending to fill holes. Arraez has an arbitration-fueled $10.6 million price tag this season and has one more arbitration cycle ahead, presumably with another raise, before hitting free agency. It's a lot of prospect depth to swap for a short-term upgrade on a team that as much as anything needs to be more worried about the substrata of its depth chart.
The bottom line, despite the nitpicking, is that Arraez is a legit MLB leadoff hitter who makes the Padres' lineup better in the here and now. Plus, if San Diego can nab a wild-card slot, he's a good fit in a playoff context because of his contact ability.
Padres grade: B-
Marlins: As for the Marlins, yes, they come out well from the actuarial standpoint. All of these prospects have a chance to contribute to Miami at some point; and Go can help soon. There isn't anyone who is a sure bet to eventually give the Marlins what they've gotten from Arraez since they acquired him from Minnesota but as a group, maybe they can.
Still, even if the Marlins might have gained something by letting more of a market develop for Arraez, any difference in return would likely have been marginal. Either way, the haul is mostly fine but less so once you consider that Miami got just one season and a little over a month for Arraez, whom they acquired straight up for one of baseball's best pitchers in Pablo Lopez.
The bad grade for Miami here is mostly based on the frustrating history of this organization and the decision to trade Arraez at all. This history is impossible to escape and is probably a bit unfair to deploy here, but, for Pete's sake, this franchise wears me out. Maybe the prospects will help, but if they do, to what purpose? So that the Marlins can flip them in a few years and as ever punt toward some unforeseen payoff on a horizon that never gets any closer?
Yes, Arraez can be a free agent after next season. Miami could have extended him and tried to aim at making a push in 2025 when the team can hope for better injury luck with its talented arsenal of pitchers. If the Marlins didn't want to commit, they could have held steady and if 2025 goes badly, there is always the trade deadline then, albeit with a less-promising return. It's not like they are paying anyone, so you'd think the money is there to commit to the most interesting hitter they have.
This team was in the playoffs last season. Then parted ways with the exec (Kim Ng) who got them there. Then went into the winter and did... nothing. And now, with this trade, it appears the Marlins are waving the white flag on another season. Actually, I stand corrected: They did that pretty much as soon as last season ended.
This is the Marlins way. There are real Marlins fans out there. I know some of them. They are as adamant as the fans of any team. But as the years pass, it becomes increasingly sad to me that anyone would have to root for this franchise -- especially in the seasons after something good has actually happened.