What made the Los Angeles Dodgers' offseason so impressive wasn't merely landing Shohei Ohtani -- it's what came after it. They didn't just reel in the biggest baseball star in the world; they also added the best pitcher on the trade market (Tyler Glasnow), the most accomplished pitcher in Japan (Yoshinobu Yamamoto) and the best corner outfielder in free agency (Teoscar Hernández).
Mike Hazen, who runs baseball operations for the Arizona Diamondbacks and is as directly impacted by the Dodgers' activity as anybody, wasn't surprised.
"When they land Ohtani, you go numb," Hazen said. "You're numb at that point. There's nothing else they could've done that would've shocked me."
Hazen spoke last month from the D-backs' spring training facility, on the heels of a stirring October run he still appreciates but doesn't cling to. Hazen is living proof that one can compete with and even conquer the modern-day Dodgers, no matter how rich and smart they might be.
The D-backs did not qualify for the playoffs until the second-to-last day of the 2023 regular season, and yet they swept a Dodgers team that won 16 more games than Arizona out of the division series and made it all the way to the final round. Hazen still savors the indelible moments from that magical World Series run. But he's continually reminded of the six months that preceded it, and how painstakingly close his team came to not experiencing any of what October had to offer it. The Dodgers' blockbuster winter didn't sap his enthusiasm. Instead, the thought of lagging behind them drove his aggression.
"We were an 84-win team," Hazen said. "I say that all the time. But I'm not saying that in speaking poorly about who we were. I feel like we have to be realistic about who we were in order to improve upon what we were, because if we win 84 games again this year, we're not going into the playoffs. That's my mindset."
The rest of the National League West -- well, most of it, aside from the perpetually stagnant Colorado Rockies -- feels the same.
The 13-day stretch from March 13 to 26 saw Dylan Cease join the San Diego Padres, Blake Snell join the San Francisco Giants and Jordan Montgomery join the D-backs -- three top-of-the-rotation arms, all capable of swaying the dynamic alone, bolstering teams that had already positioned themselves for playoff runs.
The Dodgers -- projected by FanGraphs for 93.7 wins on the morning of Opening Day, second only to the Atlanta Braves -- have won the NL West 10 out of the past 11 years. They reached 100 wins for the third straight season in 2023 and followed it by splurging more than $1.2 billion. But the Giants (projected for 83.1 wins) finished ahead of them with a 107-win season in 2021. The Padres (82.8 wins) eliminated them from the National League Division Series in 2022, and the D-backs (84.4) did the same in 2023. The Dodgers, in other words, are not invincible, regardless of how deflating it might feel to share their division.
The key, in Hazen's mind, is to "run your own race."
"I think the biggest mistake we could make is try to go round for round with them and then end up getting knocked out late because we were so aggressive, bordering on reckless, that we took our one shot and the rocket ship burned up," he said. "I don't think that's how we're going to win this race. We got to stay steady with the decisions that we're making. Be aggressive, but not reckless. And push them."
Below is a look at how each of the Dodgers' NL West rivals is looking to push them this year.
Arizona Diamondbacks
How they tried to keep up: Before Ohtani decided on the Dodgers, the D-backs had completed two of their offseason's biggest moves, trading for third baseman Eugenio Suarez and signing starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year, $80 million deal. Hazen's offseason was dominated by the thought that aggressiveness was his only option. The alternative, in a division dominated by financial heavyweights, would mean lagging behind. The D-backs later brought back left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a three-year, $42 million contract and spent close to $15 million on a new DH platoon in Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. It seemed as if they were done. Then, two days before Opening Day, they pulled off a stunner, landing Montgomery for $25 million.
Where they're strong: We know Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly at the top of the rotation is a major strength, and we know there's real upside with Brandon Pfaadt. But there were major questions beyond them. Addressing it with Montgomery and Rodriguez, two of the best pitchers available in free agency, changes the dynamic entirely. Offensively, the D-backs hit just 166 home runs last season, the same total as the Miami Marlins. Pederson and Suarez, who have combined for 110 home runs over the past three years, add another dimension to what was already a dynamic lineup.
Where they're weak: The D-backs began this past September with a bottom-10 bullpen that had combined for a 4.67 ERA. Acquiring Paul Sewald before the trade deadline was a boost. But just as big, if not bigger, was the emergence of Andrew Saalfrank, the way Kevin Ginkel transformed his career and the shrewdness of the Ryan Thompson acquisition. The D-backs, though, didn't really bolster the bullpen this offseason and are instead counting on mostly the same group to continue shutting down games late, as it did for much of October. Most important for the D-backs right now, though, is getting healthy. Sewald (strained oblique), Rodriguez (strained lat), center fielder Alek Thomas (strained hamstring) and shortstop Geraldo Perdomo (meniscus tear) are all currently on the injured list.
Where there's upside: The D-backs have an exciting core, headlined by Gallen, Kelly, Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno, Christian Walker and, of course, Corbin Carroll. We also basically know what to expect from the veteran players they acquired. The upside lies mostly with Pfaadt and Thomas. Pfaadt, 25, posted a 5.72 ERA and served up 22 home runs in 96 innings as a rookie last season, struggling to command a fastball and changeup to complement an already-elite sweeper. But the talent is there, and we saw snippets of it in October. The same can be said for Thomas, the 23-year-old outfielder who has slashed just .231/.274/.359 in 813 plate appearances heading into 2024. He has chased too many pitches and hasn't elevated them enough. That will have to change.
San Francisco Giants
How they tried to keep up: It's no secret the Giants wanted -- needed -- star players. It had become clear that mixing and matching and platooning and cobbling together bullpen games -- so many bullpen games -- wasn't going to cut it. So the Giants, who famously whiffed on Aaron Judge and walked away from Carlos Correa a year ago, went looking for a big name once again this offseason. It was a slow, steady burn. Jung Hoo Lee signed a six-year, $113 million contract to be their center fielder and leadoff hitter in December, Jordan Hicks got a four-year, $44 million deal in hopes of transitioning to the rotation in January, and, in February, they gave Jorge Soler $42 million over three years to bring some much-needed power. But the big moves came in March: Matt Chapman and Blake Snell, both for a combined $50 million in 2024, neither guaranteed beyond that.
Where they're strong: Giants starting pitchers combined for 729⅓ innings last season, dead last in the majors. Outside of Logan Webb and Alex Cobb, nobody made more than 18 starts. That will certainly improve, even if it isn't necessarily happening immediately. Snell will make his first start of the season on Monday, joining Webb, Hicks and promising young lefty Kyle Harrison in the rotation. At some point in May, Cobb should make his return from hip surgery, at which point, barring more injury, the Giants should boast a more deep and talented staff. Webb and Snell are perennial Cy Young contenders, Harrison could make a case for Rookie of the Year, and Giants coaches have been impressed by how Hicks' stuff plays as a starter.
Where they're weak: Just as bad as the starters' workload last season was the Giants' inability to produce much power. Their .383 slugging percentage was the fourth lowest in the sport, ahead of only the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians and Oakland Athletics. Will they be much better? Their big free agent acquisition, Lee, is much more of an on-base threat than a power bat. Chapman produced only a 108 OPS+ over the past three years. And while Soler, who managed 36 home runs despite spending half his time hitting in Miami's spacious ballpark in 2023, will certainly help, he can't do it alone. Mike Yastrzemski, Michael Conforto and LaMonte Wade Jr. will have to produce more, and it's hard to feel very optimistic about that.
Where there's upside: Hicks signed with the Giants to be a starter, but if he can eventually join Camilo Doval and the Rogers twins at the back end of their bullpen, the team will be much better for it. He would be a major weapon, and it also could mean Robbie Ray is back and healthy. Ray, the American League Cy Young Award winner in 2021, was acquired from the Seattle Mariners in January and isn't expected back until some time in the second half. Ray, 32, is recovering from elbow surgery to repair his flexor tendon and reconstruct his ulnar collateral ligament. It would be unfair to expect him to reach the levels of even 2022, when he posted a 3.71 ERA in 189 innings. But if he returns strong, the Giants' pitching staff will be significantly better.
San Diego Padres
How they tried to keep up: The Padres, under late owner Peter Seidler, were lauded for the lavish sums of money they spent on star players. Their fans responded by supporting the team feverishly. But carrying a payroll of more than $250 million -- in that market, with no TV deal, in the wake of a playoff absence -- proved to be unsustainable, at least in the minds of the new ownership group. And so this offseason the Padres attempted to balance scaling back while capitalizing on a contention window. Juan Soto was traded for starting-pitching depth heading into his final season before free agency, and Dylan Cease was acquired in late March to help bolster the rotation. The Padres' payroll has fallen to roughly $160 million, which is probably around where they'll operate moving forward. They still have stars, but they also have holes.
Where they're strong: Giving up quite possibly the best hitter of this generation is undoubtedly difficult, but rival evaluators believe the Padres did well in the deal that sent Soto to the New York Yankees. In exchange they got Michael King, who many believe can make the leap to a solid mid-rotation starter in 2024, as well as three other promising young arms in Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito and Drew Thorpe, the last of whom was sent to the Chicago White Sox to help land Cease. Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui, Enyel De Los Santos and Woo-Suk Go (who begins the season in the minor leagues) were added to the bullpen. The Padres are without Snell, Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha from last year's team, but their pitching staff still looks good.
Where they're weak: The Padres might have been the only team to offer Jurickson Profar a major league contract this offseason. They guaranteed him $1 million and, at least for now, are asking him to play left field on a regular basis. Manny Machado has begun the season at DH, while in the late stages of his recovery from offseason elbow surgery, so Graham Pauley, a 13th-round pick who went into this season having played only 20 games above A ball, is getting the majority of the playing time at third base. The Padres have at least a couple of glaring holes in their lineup right now. And if not for Jackson Merrill making a surprisingly smooth transition to center field and showing he might already belong in the big leagues at 20 years old, they'd be in real trouble.
Where there's upside: For all the examining of what went wrong amid the disappointment of 2023, it really isn't all that complicated -- the Padres' best players didn't perform well enough. Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish -- whose contracts total nearly $1.2 billion -- combined for 16.8 FanGraphs wins above replacement. All were fine, to varying degrees. All are capable of more. And all need to do more if the Padres hope to overcome one of the game's deepest divisions, return to the playoffs and fulfill Seidler's dream of bringing San Diego its first major championship. For most of those aforementioned stars, it needs to happen soon.