On his first try, 3,000 Hit Club member Adrian Beltre is a lock for a Hall of Fame induction ceremony this summer. The much-beloved Bartolo Colon, we're afraid, isn't going to make the 2024 Cooperstown cut.
How about the rest of the field? ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield take a look at the candidacies of some of the leading vote-getters on the BBWAA ballot to date and weigh their Hall of Fame chances for this year -- and beyond.
Players are listed in order of their current balloting percentage, via Ryan Thibodaux's Hall of Fame tracker site.
Joe Mauer
The case for Mauer: Mauer had a very high level of peak performance as a catcher -- winning three batting titles and hitting an incredible .365/.444/.587 in his MVP season in 2009 (nobody has hit for that high of an average since). During his nine full seasons as a catcher, he hit .323/.405/.469 with more walks than strikeouts. His career WAR of 55.2 is ninth all time among players who were primarily catchers (of the top 11 in WAR, only Mauer isn't a Hall of Famer) and his seven-year peak ranks fifth all time. He won three Gold Gloves and finished with a lifetime .306 average.
One big reason he might not get in: Did he play enough at catcher? Concussions forced Mauer to change positions after nine seasons behind the plate, so only 44.6 of his total WAR came as a catcher. His career counting stats aren't that impressive, even including his five seasons as a mediocre first baseman: 143 home runs, 923 RBIs and 2,123 hits.
The bottom line for 2024 -- and beyond: Mauer is polling much better than expected at 83.3%, so while that total is expected to drop once all the ballots are in, Mauer has a shot to get in as a first-year inductee (75% is required).
If he doesn't make it in 2024, then 2025 looks like a sure thing. Mauer was always a strong candidate due to his peak performance, but it's going to be a much quicker road to Cooperstown than originally believed.
Todd Helton
The case for Helton: Helton's five-year run from 2000 to 2004 was one of the best ever for any hitter: He hit .349/.450/.643 while averaging 50 doubles, 37 home runs, 123 RBIs and 7.5 WAR per season -- only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez had more WAR over those five years (and know that WAR is making the Coors Field adjustment). Oh, he had seven other .300 seasons and finished with a career line of .316/.414/.539. He's one of just three players -- joining Hall of Famers Lou Gehrig and Chuck Klein -- with two seasons with 100 extra-base hits. The dude could rake.
One big reason he might not get in: Back injuries slowed him down, and his career WAR of 61.8 is barely higher than non-Hall of Fame first basemen such as Keith Hernandez (60.3), John Olerud (58.2) and Will Clark (56.5) -- and they didn't get to hit in Denver. His career OPS+ of 133 is lower than that of Boog Powell (134), Clark (137) or Carlos Delgado (138).
The bottom line for 2024 -- and beyond: After coming close at 72% last year, his fifth on the ballot, Helton is at 82.7% and looking like he might squeeze in.
If he falls a few votes short, he has to be a lock for 2025, as voters have overcome their initial Coors Field hesitancy (as they finally did with former Rockies teammate Larry Walker).
Billy Wagner
The case for Wagner: He was one of the most dominant closers of any era, with a 2.31 ERA, a .187 batting average allowed and 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings -- while pitching in the heart of the PED era. Despite standing just 5-foot-10, he was perhaps the hardest-throwing reliever of his time and showcased remarkable consistency, only posting an ERA above 3.00 once -- in a 2000 season that he tried to pitch through an injury before ultimately needing season-ending surgery. A seven-time All-Star, Wagner is sixth all time in saves and his ERA+ of 187 is much better than that of every Hall of Fame reliever not named Mariano Rivera.
One big reason he might not get in: His 903 career innings would be the fewest of any Hall of Fame reliever by more than 100. He never led the league in saves (unlike HOFers Rivera, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage and Dennis Eckersley) and also never closed out a World Series: Indeed, he had a 10.03 ERA in 14 postseason appearances.
The bottom line for 2024 -- and beyond: This is Wagner's ninth time on the ballot, so if he doesn't get in this year, 2025 will be his last chance via the BBWAA. After climbing from 10% his first time on the ballot up to 68% last year, he is at 79% on the Hall of Fame tracker, so it's going to be extremely close.
In the long run, even if Wagner doesn't get in this year or next, he's certainly a lock via some future era committee.
Gary Sheffield
The case for Sheffield: One of the most devastating hitters of his time, Sheffield mashed 509 career homers and never struck out more than 83 times in a season, a number he reached twice, and only after turning 35. He reached base 4,299 times during a 22-year career, ranking 30th all time. Only 26 players have ever exceeded Sheffield's career total of 1,946 runs created, and just 11 of those were also right-handed batters.
Sheffield was a nine-time All-Star, five-time Silver Slugger and finished in the top 10 of MVP balloting six times. Sheffield's 60.5 total ranks 19th among right fielders and is one of the highest figures among those not yet enshrined.
One big reason he might not get in: Hard to boil it down to one thing with Sheffield. His career defensive metrics, nearly all calculated after his retirement, drag down his bWAR total, but there is a lot of disagreement among the systems on just how poor his defense really was. He was mentioned in the Mitchell report, though his ties to PEDs are tenuous. He is also likely hurt by his travels: Sheffield played for eight different teams, none for more than a six-year stretch.
The bottom line for 2024 -- and beyond: A recent surge has Sheffield just below the 75% threshold (74.7%) among ballots thus far made public. The figure isn't likely to hold up when all ballots are counted, but he has made progress during his time on the ballot.
With one more crack, he may yet squeeze in over the line. It feels at this point like a 50-50 proposition. If he's left out by the BBWAA, it seems like he'd be a strong candidate on the veterans committee circuit.
Andruw Jones
The case for Jones: A graceful, mesmerizing defender, many regard Jones as the best defensive center fielder of all time -- yes, even better than Willie Mays, Paul Blair, Garry Maddox or Ken Griffey Jr. Indeed, Jones' defensive metrics applied at Baseball-Reference tower over any other center fielder's. He won 10 consecutive Gold Gloves.
He was hardly a one-way player, however, as he slugged 434 home runs, including a league-leading 51 in 2005, while topping 30 six other times. His career WAR of 62.7 is higher than many Hall of Fame outfielders, including Vladimir Guerrero (59.5), Willie Stargell (57.6) and Kirby Puckett (51.2), and barely below Andre Dawson (64.8) and Dave Winfield (64.2).
One big reason he might not get in: You have to really buy into those defensive metrics. Jones tailed off early -- his last good season came at age 29 -- so he finished with fewer than 2,000 career hits. While he had power, his overall hitting numbers aren't great for his era. Only five of 75 Hall of Fame outfielders have an equal or lower career OPS+ than Jones' 111 mark (Richie Ashburn, Lou Brock, Max Carey, Tommy McCarthy and Lloyd Waner). No Hall of Fame outfielder has more fielding value than batting value for their career, but Jones is at 119 batting runs and 235 fielding runs, so he would be an extreme outlier.
The bottom line for 2024 -- and beyond: A favorite of the stathead crowd, Jones is building momentum: He debuted at just 7% his first year and received 58% last year. Now on his seventh ballot, he's polling at 71.6% on the tracker, so while he won't get in this year, he continues to get closer. It looks like it might come down to his ninth or 10th time on the ballot.
Carlos Beltran
The case for Beltran: He ranks ninth among center fielders in the JAWS system. The only player ahead of him not yet in the Hall of Fame is Mike Trout, who is a shoo-in once he retires. Beltran is one of just five players to top 500 doubles, 400 homers and 300 steals. He both scored and drove in more than 1,500 runs during his career. He also won the 1999 AL Rookie of the Year Award, made nine All-Star teams, and won two Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves. He excelled in the postseason, hitting 16 homers in 65 games with an OPS of 1.021, and Roberto Clemente is the only Puerto Rican-born player with more career bWAR.
One big reason he might not get in: Before Beltran's ties to the Astros' 2017 sign-stealing scandal, his solid-but-not-definite Hall case was bolstered by his reputation as an impactful clubhouse leader. Indignation over the scandal has likely tamped down his support so far.
The bottom line for 2024 -- and beyond: After a decent first-year showing on the ballot (46.5%) despite the scandal baggage, he seems to be picking up steam, as he currently stands at 66.7% with 42.2% of the ballots made public so far.
He's not likely to get in this time around, but his solid case appears to be playing well with the electorate, and he has eight more tries after this one.
Chase Utley
The case for Utley: Utley ranks 12th in the JAWS system at second base, and the only non-Hall of Famer ahead of him is the chronically overlooked Bobby Grich. In that system, he's just a hair below the average second baseman already enshrined and his 49.3 peak bWAR is well above the Hall standard. He was a six-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger and three-time top-10 finisher in NL MVP balloting who maintained a reputation as a sterling clubhouse presence throughout his career while performing for many contending teams, including the 2008 World Series-winning Phillies.
One big reason he might not get in: His career counting numbers are light for a Hall of Famer. He topped 150 games played just four times in 16 seasons and finished with 1,885 hits and 259 home runs. Utley's case is primarily a matter of advanced metrics like WAR, and even his fine career total of 131 defensive runs saved (per baseball-reference.com) isn't undergirded by Gold Glove recognition.
The bottom line for 2024 -- and beyond: Utley's first-year support (45.1% so far) is an excellent beginning for his candidacy, though it's not going to get him enshrined this time around.
Still, with the electorate becoming more and more attuned to nontraditional measures of value, and with Utley getting extra credit for his intangibles, he looks like a future Cooperstown member -- and his wait shouldn't be a long one.