We have our four league championship finalists: the Houston Astros (for an impressive seventh consecutive season), the Philadelphia Phillies (for the second year in a row), the Texas Rangers (for the first time since 2011) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (for the first time since 2007).
The four teams have dominated the MLB playoffs, going 18-2 while outscoring their opponents 113 to 44. They have hit a combined .270 with 43 home runs while holding their opponents to a .213 average and 13 home runs.
They have ruled an upset-filled October, even though none of the four teams won more than 90 games during the regular season. The Astros, Rangers and Diamondbacks each clinched a playoff spot on the penultimate day of the regular season. The 104-win Braves with an all-time great offense? Gone. The 101-win Orioles? Swept. The 100-win Dodgers? Swept in humiliating fashion. The regular season's five best teams went 1-13, making it the first time none of the top five teams reached the league championship series. No matter who advances to the World Series, we're guaranteed the second-lowest combined win total in World Series history (not counting shortened seasons), surpassed only by 2014, when the 88-win San Francisco Giants beat the 89-win Kansas City Royals.
Now, maybe pointing all of this out is a little unfair, as it perhaps undersells these teams a little. The Astros, obviously, are a talented team with plenty of postseason success and are looking to become the first repeat champion since the 2000 Yankees. The Rangers had a plus-165 run differential that was fourth in the majors in the regular season. The Phillies stumbled out of the gate, but from June 3 to the end of the regular season, only the Braves won more games. The Diamondbacks? Well, they're hoping to join the 1987 Minnesota Twins as the only teams with a negative run differential to reach the World Series (and the Twins won in seven games).
Let's take stock of where the four teams sit and rerank them:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Biggest strength we've seen: The lineup. The Phillies have hit .274/.354/.538 through six games with Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper leading the way -- three players the Phillies signed as free agents for a combined $730 million. Turner has hit .500 with six extra-base hits, continuing his late-season surge that saw him hit .317 with 16 home runs in the final two months after struggling for much of his first season with the team. Is it possible the biggest turning point of this entire season will turn out to be Phillies fans giving Turner a standing ovation in early August? He had been terrible for four months before that ovation. Frankly, the Phillies' entire offense had been pretty lackluster as well, but it then led the majors in home runs in the final two months.
Meanwhile, Castellanos became the first player in postseason history with back-to-back multihomer games when he hit two home runs in Games 3 and 4 against the Braves. And Harper? His October legend continues to grow.
"Trea and Harp and Nick, I mean I can't tell you how big they are on our club right now," manager Rob Thomson said after the Phillies beat the Braves. "I don't think the moment gets them at all. In fact, the moment, I think, helps Harp a little bit. But Trea has been unbelievable."
Also helping: Since they're the better seed, the Phillies have home-field advantage in the NLCS and they're 10-2 at Citizens Bank Park the past two postseasons (with both losses coming to the Astros in the World Series). Castellanos in particular loves to hit at home, where his OPS was 222 points higher. Worth filing away: The Phillies would have World Series home-field advantage against the Astros, but not the Rangers.
A question that remains: Umm ... well, they haven't had to use their fourth starter yet. Having multiple off-days in the NLDS (combined with a blowout win in Game 3) also allowed Thomson to give quick hooks to No. 3 starter Ranger Suarez. At the same time, however, this bullpen is deeper and better than last year's group, and Dave Dombrowski went all in on power arms.
Look at the average fastball velocity for this group in October: Gregory Soto, 99.1 mph; Seranthony Dominguez, 98.6 mph; Jose Alvarado, 98.4 mph; Orion Kerkering, 98.0 mph; Jeff Hoffman, 97.8 mph; and Craig Kimbrel, 96.0 mph. Matt Strahm, who closed out the Braves, only averaged 93 mph with his fastball -- but struck out 11.1 batters per nine in the regular season. The key: This group can be a little wild at times -- we saw Alvarado and Kimbrel load the bases with walks in Game 4, only to see Kimbrel escape when Johan Rojas corralled Ronald Acuna Jr.'s fly ball at the wall. Kimbrel doesn't feel like a sure thing, but so far, so good for the relievers, other than Hoffman's blip against Austin Riley.
What has surprised us: This Phillies team is better defensively than you might realize. It's not perfect -- Turner has had some issues at shortstop and his Statcast metrics during the regular season weren't good -- but Rojas is an elite defender in center field, and Brandon Marsh (or Cristian Pache) in left field essentially gives them two excellent center fielders out there while also taking Kyle Schwarber's glove out of play.
2. Houston Astros
Biggest strength we've seen: Yordan Alvarez and Jose Abreu have provided a power-packed middle of the order. With Alvarez, this is no surprise. He has been one of the best hitters in the majors since his call-up in 2019 -- maybe the best -- and he has performed before in the postseason. He went 7-for-16 against the Twins with four home runs.
Abreu, signed to a three-year contract in the offseason, was huge against the Twins, with three home runs and eight RBIs. Abreu's season line wasn't good -- .237/.296/383, OPS+ of 87 -- but that's because he was a complete nonfactor in the first two months, when he hit .211 with one home run. He has been better since then -- still not the peak Abreu of his White Sox days, but he hit seven home runs in September and then three against the Twins, so he has found something of a power stroke. In following Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, he'll get at-bats with runners on base, especially if the Rangers are a little more careful with Alvarez than the Twins were. I suspect Abreu's performance will be pivotal for the Astros.
"He's a guy that's very even-tempered," manager Dusty Baker said of Abreu after the ALDS. "When he was going poorly, he told me, 'It's OK. It's OK.' Then when he was going great, he was like, 'It's OK, it's OK.' When it was going poorly, I was like, man, it ain't OK. But in his mind, he knew that it was OK." Right now, Abreu looks OK.
A question that remains: The Astros are the one team left that can go four deep in its starting rotation without stressing too much about quick hooks or bullpen games. Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier combined for 11 shutout innings against the Twins and Jose Urquidy pitched into the sixth inning. Only Framber Valdez had a bad start. Still, those performances hardly mean this group will roll through the Rangers. The Twins led the majors in strikeouts; that was a team you could pitch to. The Rangers won't be quite so easy.
Indeed, the Astros battled until the final day of the regular season to win the AL West in part because the rotation hasn't been consistent. Valdez finished with a solid 3.45 ERA, but that has climbed to 5.13 since the All-Star break and including his playoff outing. Verlander has come up big when most needed, with one run allowed over his past three starts, but even he has described this season as a "grind." His whiff and strikeout rates are now below average and he gets by more on knowledge and location than pure stuff. Javier's ERA was two runs higher than last season, but he's coming off back-to-back scoreless starts and we saw him dominate last postseason. The rotation is a strength ... until it isn't.
What has surprised us: Call this a non-surprise surprise, but boy does Baker love catcher Martin Maldonado. Statistically, Maldonado is the worst postseason hitter in history among those with at least 150 plate appearances. His framing metrics were among the worst in the game. He had a terrible season throwing out base stealers. Yainer Diaz is a much superior offensive player, had a much better rate throwing out runners and the Astros had a better record when he started at catcher than Maldonado -- .619 winning percentage versus .534. But Baker trusts Maldonado, and the veteran got all four starts against the Twins (Diaz got one start at DH). At some point the Astros may need more offense. Will Baker be willing to sit his guy?
3. Texas Rangers
Biggest strength we've seen: Corey Seager and the two rookies. Seager has followed up his MVP-caliber regular season by hitting .429 with 11 walks in five playoff games. Evan Carter, a September call-up, has hit .429 with four extra-base hits and more walks than strikeouts. Josh Jung, who fractured his left thumb in early August and struggled upon his return, has hit .400 with five extra-base hits. The Rangers lineup that soared through most of the season is clicking again at the right time.
During the Orioles series, Seager said that the two rookies have been instrumental beyond just their numbers: "It's just what they do for you, right? Like you get through a long season, and then you need that spark. We've had a couple of those throughout the year. You need that extra little energy, that extra little edge, just a little more hustle, that little thing that just pushes you and reminds you of where you are in the season and what you're looking for, and it's extremely beneficial."
A question that remains: Does that three-game blowout last month matter? The last time the AL West rivals met was in the first week of September when the Astros won three games at Globe Life Field by scores of 13-6, 14-1 and 12-3. For the season, the Astros averaged 7.2 runs per game against the Rangers. In other words: Can the Rangers' pitchers perform as well as they did against the Rays and Orioles?
In particular, will the bullpen perform? Keep in mind the Rangers are down to two reliable starters in Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi. Andrew Heaney had a short leash in his start against the Orioles. Max Scherzer declared himself "ready to go" on Friday so maybe he returns as the fourth starter -- but even if he does it's likely to be for a limited pitch count considering he's coming back from a muscle strain in his right shoulder and hasn't pitched in just over a month. This all means that the Rangers are going to need a lot of innings from their pen. Aroldis Chapman remains a wild card and has been yanked mid-inning in two of his past four appearances. Josh Sborz, who gave up six runs in one of those games against the Astros, is suddenly one of the key setup guys. Closer Jose Leclerc has been pretty sturdy down the stretch.
What has surprised us: As good as the Rangers' lineup has been, Bruce Bochy has been scrambling to fill the No. 3 slot between Seager and Adolis Garcia. Nathaniel Lowe held that spot nearly every game until mid-September, but he hit .160 in the final month and batted seventh in all three ALDS games. Robbie Grossman hit third in both games against the Rays and once against the Orioles. Mitch Garver hit third in the final two games against the O's -- and went 4-for-10 with seven RBIs, including a grand slam.
One thing that makes it easier for Bochy: Valdez is the only left-handed pitcher on the Astros' staff, so the Rangers don't have to worry about a lefty coming on in relief to face Seager. Maybe Garver stays in that No. 3 spot, maybe Lowe moves back there after homering in the ALDS clincher. Maybe Grossman starts again, even though he had just a .633 OPS versus right-handers. No matter who it is, you can see why the Astros may be as reluctant to pitch to Seager as the Orioles were last round.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
Biggest strength we've seen: The Diamondbacks have three stars on their roster in rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll and starters Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly -- which gives them the proverbial puncher's chance against the Phillies. Carroll has hit .412/.565/.824 with two home runs in his five playoff games, Gallen has allowed two runs in each of his two starts and Kelly tossed 6⅓ scoreless innings against the Dodgers.
More than anything: The Diamondbacks just played their five best games of the year.
"I don't even know if it's worth trying to explain," Carroll said after beating the Dodgers. "I think it's just one of those magical things about baseball. We talked about it all year. I think a lot of people will say it, all you've got to do is get in. We got in and just some truly magical things have happened so far."
A question that remains: Pitching depth. Arizona will line up Kelly and Gallen for the first two games, and those two will start four out of the potential seven games, but the third and fourth spots remain an issue. Rookie Brandon Pfaadt is the third starter and he did pitch 4⅓ scoreless innings in the clincher against L.A. -- but Torey Lovullo also removed him even though he had thrown just 42 pitches. When Pfaadt avoids surrendering home runs, he's been very effective, with four scoreless outings out of his past nine appearances, so that will be crucial against a powerful Phillies lineup.
Who will start Game 4? Lovullo will almost certainly line up a bullpen game. Maybe somebody like lefty reliever Kyle Nelson gets the nod, to face Schwarber and Harper in the first inning. The Arizona bullpen is more likely to be taxed than it was against the Dodgers in the NLDS, when it had off days after Games 1 and 2. It has performed well so far, but let's see what happens when those relief appearances start piling up.
What has surprised us: Catcher Gabriel Moreno hit just seven home runs in the regular season, but he has popped three in the playoffs -- part of Arizona's surprising power output with 13 home runs in five games. Moreno had an under-the-radar 4.3 WAR rookie season, hitting .284/.339/.408 as a contact-over-power guy -- and possesses an outstanding throwing arm with a league-leading 39% caught stealing rate. That arm will come into play against the Phillies, who have nine stolen bases in the postseason. Indeed, there is a Yadier Molina-like quality to Moreno's game with his contact hitting and bazooka of an arm. Moreno left Game 3 against the Dodgers after a foul ball hit him in the hand. X-rays were negative and he should be ready for the NLCS, giving the underdog Diamondbacks one of their most important players.