There's no sugarcoating it: 2023 was a historic MLB draft class, and 2024 is merely a normal one. The top tier of a draft is what makes the whole draft class look good. Having five clear top talents (Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews, Max Clark, Wyatt Langford, Walker Jenkins) who were all candidates for the No. 1 overall pick made the whole class look better, when the rest after that top group were pretty normal.
The 2024 class has a normal top of the class, in that there are a couple prospects who are seen as consensus types to go on a minor league top 100 upon being drafted because of ability and performance but with some lack of ceiling. The rest of the class is solid, but the lack of exceptional talent at the top hurts the perception of the entire group.
It's worth noting there is only one high school player in the top 23 spots in these rankings. To be fair, Jackson Holliday was seen as a mid-first-round talent at best at this juncture two years ago, and he's now the top prospect in baseball. I'd expect more prep players to break into the top half of the first round, maybe as soon as a few weeks from now when the key final events of the summer conclude.
Let's dive into my initial top 50 prospects for the 2024 MLB draft, plus another 50 with Day 1 upside who could move up this list in the coming months.
50 FV tier
1. Nick Kurtz (21.1), 1B, Wake Forest
2. J.J. Wetherholt (21.8), 3B, West Virginia
This is a tossup. Kurtz got a surprising amount of support in my pre-MCWS prospect rankings, tucking in behind the Crews/Skenes/Langford group and ahead of Rhett Lowder (seventh overall pick) and Chase Dollander (ninth). The take from scouts is that he's a plus hitter with a plus approach and plus-plus power (not exactly the same player, but think someone like Anthony Rizzo) with what will likely be three seasons of dominating in college, so being limited to first base doesn't bother them.
Wetherholt is a 5-foot-10, 190-pound, lefty-hitting third baseman who gets the most out of his tools, evidenced through racking up 36 stolen bases this spring despite ordinary speed. He's above average to plus at everything in the batter's box and fits better as the top player for teams that value margin for error in evaluations via a wide base of skills and positional value.
Both players are in the 51-75 region of a minor league top 100, so clearly behind the top five players in the 2023 draft (they will rank between eighth and 27th in my top 100) but well ahead of whoever you thought the sixth-best player was (roughly 150th overall). Kurtz and Wetherholt are typical top-of-the-draft talents a year in advance.
45+ FV tier
3. Vance Honeycutt (21.1), CF, North Carolina
4. Travis Bazzana (21.9), 2B, Oregon State
5. Jacob Cozart (21.4), C, North Carolina State
Here we have more well-known college players, each with a concern that keeps them one step below the top tier. Honeycutt was the early favorite in this class, going from little-known prep prospect to freshman 6-foot-3 center-field phenom with 25 homers in the ACC. He has some consistency and contact questions to answer in 2024 but also plenty of upside.
Bazzana (an Australian) is a plus runner who will fit up the middle somewhere -- he can really hit, he's polished and scouts rave about his makeup. His power is good not great, and scouts speculate he could fit better in center field but would like to see him play more shortstop. Cozart is next in the line of standout ACC catchers (Kyle Teel, Patrick Bailey, Joey Bart) with above-average defensive skills and raw power.
45 FV tier
6. Jac Caglianone (21.4), 1B/LHP, Florida
7. Braden Montgomery (21.2), RF/RHP, Stanford
8. Brody Brecht (21.8), RHP, Iowa
9. P.J. Morlando (19.0), RF, Summerville HS (South Carolina), South Carolina commit
10. Dakota Jordan (21.1), CF, Mississippi State
11. Malcolm Moore (20.9), C, Stanford
12. Anthony Silva (21.0), SS, TCU
13. Chase Burns (21.4), RHP, Wake Forest
14. Christian Moore (21.8), 2B, Tennessee
15. Josh Hartle (21.3), LHP, Wake Forest
16. Tommy White (21.4), 3B, LSU
17. Charlie Condon (21.1), 1B, Georgia
18. Thatcher Hurd (21.6), RHP, LSU
19. Mike Sirota (21.0), SS, Northeastern
20. Hagen Smith (20.9), LHP, Arkansas
21. Kyle Debarge (21.0), SS, Louisiana Lafayette
22. Drew Beam (21.4), RHP, Tennessee
23. Billy Amick (21.7), 3B, Tennessee
24. J.D. Dix (18.7), SS, Whitefish Bay HS (Wisconsin), Alabama commit
25. Michael Mullinax (19.0), CF, North Cobb Christian HS (Georgia), Georgia commit
26. Derek Curiel (19.1), CF, Orange Lutheran HS (California), LSU commit
27. Konnor Griffin (18.2), SS/RHP, Jackson Prep HS (Mississippi), LSU commit
You may have scrolled down to see why Caglianone isn't first on the list. He has mid-rotation upside on the mound but is more promise than polish right now: 55 walks in 74⅔ innings helps tell that story. While he has at least 70-grade if not 80-grade raw power and knows how to get to it in games (33 homers last season!), he had a scary chase rate (58 strikeouts to 17 walks as a hitter) that could undermine his significant physical skills. He's athletic enough to play corner outfield, so he isn't only a first baseman, but if he played both ways in pro ball that barely matters, and he has to throw more strikes while also being more discerning at the plate to deliver on his potential. For some scouts, he's clearly top five in this class because of what he could be, while for others he belongs in the back half of the first round because of what he is right now.
Montgomery quietly has real two-way ability headlined by big raw power, but is seen as more of a one-pitch, relief-only type as a pitcher at the moment. Brecht has arguably the best raw stuff in the history of college baseball, with two 80-grade pitches in his triple-digit heater and breaking ball when they're on, but his command is 30-grade at the moment. As a 6-foot-4 athlete who used to be a receiver for the Hawkeyes (wrong program for catching passes, am I right?), you can very easily imagine ace upside, but it's still a ways off. The rest of this run of college players is 2023 Omaha heavy and overwhelmingly at big-time programs.
Morlando is the one consensus prep name everyone I talk to has comfortably in the first round right now, despite being old for the class and a corner-only fit. He has some Brett Baty vibes and plenty of track record. Dix has the tools and actions to break through the rest of this summer and early in the spring, but he hasn't grabbed that top half of the first round mantle just yet. Mullinax has first-round tools, but his swing is a bit funky, and he's old for the class just like Curiel, who has a long track record of hitting but also has some scouts questioning his upside. Griffin is the youngest of the group and has big tools both ways but just OK feel to hit; some think he has Jack Flaherty-like upside on the mound.
40+ FV tier
28. Casey Saucke (21.0), 3B, Virginia
29. Will Taylor (21.5), CF, Clemson
30. Cam Caminiti (17.9), LHP, Saguaro HS (Arizona), LSU commit
31. Colby Shelton (21.6), 3B, Florida
32. Seaver King (21.0), 2B, Wake Forest
33. Noah Franco (18.0), RF/LHP, IMG Academy HS (Florida), Mississippi State commit
34. Bryce Cunningham (21.5), RHP, Vanderbilt
35. Kaelen Culpepper (21.5), SS, Kansas State
36. Luke Holman (21.5), RHP, Alabama
37. Bryce Rainer (19.0), SS/RHP, Harvard Westlake HS (California), Texas commit
Franco and Rainer are two more longtime celebrated prep talents with real two-way upside. I'll lean toward hitting for the sweet-swinging Franco, while Rainer stands out for loud batting practice, but West Coast scouts swear he's special on the mound. Caminiti reclassified from the 2025 class and is the best primary pitcher prospect in the prep class by a good margin; he has the first-round prep lefty starter kit. King transferred to Wake Forest after the season from Division II Wingate and has been good this summer for Team USA as a new name on the circuit. Culpepper was also very good for the same USA squad and has been getting rave reviews on the Cape, where he's regularly playing shortstop.
40 FV tier
38. Theo Gillen (18.9), SS, Westlake HS (Texas), Texas commit
39. Owen Paino (18.6), SS, Ketcham HS (New York), Ole Miss commit
40. Ethan Anderson (20.8), C, Virginia
41. Cade Arrambide (18.8), C, Tomball HS (Texas), LSU commit
42. Carter Johnson (18.4), SS, Oxford HS (Alabama), Alabama commit
43. Carson DeMartini (21.4), 3B, Virginia Tech
44. Caleb Lomavita (21.6), C, Cal
45. Carter Holton (21.9), LHP, Vanderbilt
46. Wyatt Sanford (18.6), SS, Independence HS (Texas), Texas A&M commit
47. Ryan Forcucci (21.6), RHP, UC San Diego
48. Charlie Bates (18.8), SS, Palo Alto HS (California), Stanford commit
49. Caleb Bonemer (18.8), SS, Okemos HS (Michigan), Virginia commit
50. Samuel Richardson (19.0), 3B, Lewisburg HS (Mississippi), Missouri commit
The prep talent fully catches up in this area of the list, with a wealth of projectable pitchers below and some potential late first-round position players both above and below. This is also where accomplished college players with one clear weakness tend to land, but the biggest spring risers often come from this area.
I thought it would be silly to rank 100 players with the summer season only about half over, so below you'll find another 50 to keep an eye on for now. I feel good about the top 30-50 being pretty close to what I'll have as we enter the fall, but these next prospects are just a partial list of who could go in the top 75-100 picks next summer. These are the guys I feel good about so far, while in a few weeks when the main summer events have ended, this might have a dozen new names sprinkled in.
50 more with Day One upside
(grouped by player demographic)
College pitchers
Michael Massey (21.2), RHP, Wake Forest
Trey Yesavage (20.9), RHP, East Carolina
Ben Hess (21.8), RHP, Alabama
Matt Ager (21.0), RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Jonathan Santucci (21.5), LHP, Duke
Jared Spencer (21.0), LHP, Indiana State
Gage Ziehl (21.1), RHP, Miami
Gage Jump (21.2), LHP, LSU
Karson Ligon (21.4), RHP, Mississippi State
Kyle Robinson (20.9), RHP, Texas Tech
College hitters
Paxton Kling (21.0), CF, LSU
Rodney Green (21.2), CF, Cal
Griff O'Ferrall (21.4), SS, Virginia
Ryan Waldschmidt (21.8), 3B, Kentucky
Lorenzo Carrier (21.1), CF, Miami
Jonathan Vastine (21.7), SS, Vanderbilt
Cole Messina (21.1), C, South Carolina
Peyton Stovall (21.4), 2B, Arkansas
James Tibbs III (21.7), RF, Florida State
Jared Jones (20.9), C, LSU
Blake Burke (21.0), 1B, Tennessee
Carson Benge (21.5), 1B, Oklahoma State
Hunter Hines (21.7), LF, Mississippi State
Zack Stewart (20.9), RF, Missouri State
Ivan Brethowr (21.3), RF, UC Santa Barbara
Payton Tolle (21.7), 1B/LHP, TCU
Carter Mathison (21.4), RF, Indiana
Walker Janek (21.8), C, Sam Houston State
Josh Kuroda-Grauer (21.4), SS, Rutgers
High school pitchers
William Schmidt (18.8), RHP, Catholic HS (Louisiana), Mississippi State commit
Joey Oakie (18.1), RHP, Ankeny Centennial HS (Iowa), Iowa commit
David Shields (17.8), LHP, Mt. Lebanon HS (Pennsylvania), Miami commit
Mavrick Rizy (19.5), RHP, Worcester Academy HS (Massachusetts), UConn commit
Levi Sterling (17.8), RHP, Notre Dame HS (California), Texas commit
Trey Gregory-Alford (18.1), RHP, Coronado HS (Colorado), Virginia commit
Ethan Schiefelbein (18.2), LHP, Corona HS (California), UCLA commit
Carson Wiggins (19.0), RHP, Roland HS (Oklahoma), Arkansas commit
Jason Flores (18.4), RHP, Naaman Forest HS (Texas), Uncommitted
Lazaro Collera (18.7), RHP, Florida Christian HS (Florida), Miami commit
Tegan Kuhns (19.2), RHP, Gettysburg Area HS (Pennsylvania), Tennessee commit
Zach Swanson (18.8), RHP, Toutle Lake HS (Washington), Oregon State commit
Anson Seibert (18.9), RHP, Blue Valley Southwest HS (Kansas), Tennessee commit
Dylan Jordan (18.7), RHP, Viera HS (Florida), Florida State commit
Landon Victorian (18.7), RHP, Barbe HS (Louisiana), LSU commit
High school hitters
Slade Caldwell (18.1), CF, Valley View HS (Arkansas), Ole Miss commit
Dante Nori (19.8), CF, Northville HS (Michigan), Mississippi State commit
Garrett Shull (19.0), RF, Enid HS (Oklahoma), Oklahoma State commit
Rustan Rigdon (18.6), SS, Metter HS (Georgia), Vanderbilt commit
Brendan Lawson (18.6), SS, Lawrence Park HS (Canada), Florida commit
Tague Davis (18.8), 1B/LHP, Malvern Prep HS (Pennsylvania), Louisville commit