We're past the unofficial start of summer, which gives us more than enough of a sample size to take our first group look at the state of MLB's 2023 rookie class.
We've combined the American League and National League into one list -- headlined by (surprise!) Arizona Diamondbacks phenom Corbin Carroll, a unanimous pick. But who else rounds out the 10 best rookies in baseball so far? And can anyone catch Carroll at the top as the summer heats up?
We asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle and Kiley McDaniel to rank their top 10 rookies. They've also detailed how each one has performed this season to date, what to watch for throughout the rest of 2023 and their long-term outlooks.
1. Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
How he's performed so far: Kiley's No. 2 overall prospect entering the season, Carroll has been exactly as advertised, flashing his plus-plus speed both on the bases (17 steals) and in the field (93rd percentile in outs above average, including several highlight-reel catches) with a solid approach at the plate and surprising power for a smaller guy (15 doubles, 10 home runs). He improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 24/8 in April to 18/15 in May, a great sign for a young hitter. He's hitting .287/.378/.520 and has a great chance of making the All-Star team. -- Schoenfield
What to watch for the rest of 2023: The cream-of-the-crop prospects in any given season don't necessarily parlay the hype that invariably accompanies their arrival into Rookie of the Year trophies. A lot of that is age-based, of course, as the best prospects tend to debut at a younger age than other rookies who enter the majors a little closer to their peak. Some elite prospects, on the other hand, immediately and objectively validate the advanced assertions about their future stardom. That pretty much sums up Carroll.
With elite speed and defensive metrics, he'd be a valuable contributor for the Diamondbacks even if his bat had lagged. But the bat has been terrific as well, and with top-end max exit velocities and above-average strike-zone command, there is little reason to think he's going to tail off anytime soon. You can't even chalk up his offensive production to Chase Field, as his road OPS is more than 100 points higher than at home. Lefties, so far, haven't been much of a problem, either. His numbers against soft/breaking stuff are considerably worse than his ridiculous numbers against hard stuff. That could mean Carroll is going to face some slumps if he starts chasing those offerings excessively. But it could also mean that as good as he's been, he's going to get even better the more he acclimates to big-league-type repertoires. -- Doolittle
The long-term outlook: The sales pitch on Carroll is pretty simple: He's basically plus at everything. He's now played a little more than half a big league season since making his MLB debut last year, and has posted 3.8 WAR, hitting .278 with solid defense while on pace for 20-plus homers along with 30-plus stolen bases. Carroll is looking like one of the rare cases in which the immense hype has been immediately matched, if not exceeded. -- McDaniel
2. Josh Jung, Texas Rangers
How he's performed so far: The eighth overall pick in 2019, Jung missed most of 2022 with a shoulder injury and looked overmatched when called up in September, but he's shaken off the rust and has been a huge part of the explosive Rangers lineup, hitting .292 with 12 home runs and 38 RBIs. The strikeouts are a bit high and he's riding a .366 average on balls in play, but he's shown an ability to barrel the baseball, ranking in the 89th percentile in hard-hit rate (balls hit at 95-plus mph). -- Schoenfield
What to watch for the rest of 2023: At least Jung won't be under any undue pressure to produce, as pretty much everyone the Rangers have deployed this season has raked. Even in that teamwide-breakout context, Jung has stood out with his combination of power and average. His .360-plus average on balls in play jumps out as unsustainable, and perhaps it is, especially given subpar chase and whiff rates. But keep in mind that Jung hit .348 over three years in a major conference while at Texas Tech and .311 as a minor leaguer in the Rangers' system. The power, on the other hand, is unquestionably legit. It's a matter of Jung being just selective enough to slug away. -- Doolittle
The long-term outlook: Jung swung too often when he returned from shoulder surgery late last season but has dialed in his approach to excellent results this season. The question on Jung at the draft was if he could make the adjustment to lift and pull the ball more often to get to his raw power in games. He's still himself but is doing that enough to put up above-average power numbers while still running strong contact and defensive results. -- McDaniel
3. Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox
How he's performed so far: He was the second-best hitter in Japan last year, so it shouldn't be a surprise that Yoshida has performed so well -- although it's worth pointing out that many in the game were skeptical of the Red Sox giving him a five-year, $90 million contract. He's hitting .319/.393/.502 with almost as many walks (23) as strikeouts (24), showcasing elite contact ability with above-average exit velocities. As also advertised, however, the defense is below average and he's split his time between left field and DH, which cuts into his overall value. -- Schoenfield
What to watch for the rest of 2023: Yoshida's continued value will hinge, as expected, almost entirely on his ability to produce at the plate. The defensive and baserunning parts of his game were believed to be poor before he arrived and that has largely been the case. But his stick has translated well, perhaps better than anyone could have hoped for. The key to this has been Yoshida's ability to maintain a good bit of the plate discipline that made him a star in Japan. Over there, he walked more than twice as often as he whiffed in recent seasons. He's not doing that, but in today's MLB, a player who walks as often as he strikes out is a virtual unicorn, and that's what Yoshida has done. The part that's been a little surprising is the pop: Yoshida's isolated power figures have been well above the MLB average. His expected numbers, based on his Statcast measures, suggest there might be a bit of regression to come, but not a ton. Yoshida has been what the Red Sox have thought he would be, and that's a good thing. We should be seeing this exact player over the next handful of seasons. -- Doolittle
The long-term outlook: The Yoshida discourse within the industry has been interesting to follow. I got immediate and almost universally negative pushback when he signed, not due to him being a bad player, but about the big guarantee on the contract. Even those who hated the deal thought he could really hit but wondered how much power would show up in games, and they thought his lack of speed and defense gave him no margin for error. Three-quarters of that has been essentially true, but he's hit even better than many expected, and the power has been solid-average when many worried it would play below average against big league pitching. If metrics had Yoshida as an average baserunner and defender, he'd be essentially tied with Jung for the second-best rookie position player, but those metrics are getting at the part scouts were right about. The scouts just have missed so far on the most important thing: what has happened in the batter's box. -- McDaniel
4. Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
How he's performed so far: It looks like the Astros have developed another frontline starting pitcher. While Brown dominated in Triple-A last season, there were some general concerns about his control, especially after a couple of rough outings in spring training. He started off hot, however, going 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in April. At times, he's simply overpowered batters with his 96 mph fastball (he has yet to allow a home run off it), and his curveball has been much more effective than his slider, giving him a strong reverse platoon split so far. Most importantly, he's throwing enough strikes, averaging three walks per nine after issuing 3.8 in Triple-A. He wasn't as dominant in May and his two best starts in the month were against the A's, so the league might be making some adjustments against him. -- Schoenfield
What to watch for the rest of 2023: Brown has been a little better than his exciting statistical projections anticipated, as he's displayed a high level of command all season. That's manifested in lower-than-expected rates in both walks and homers allowed. When you're also striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings, you're pretty much a complete pitcher. One thing you like about Brown, in addition to his raw stuff, is the makeup of his arsenal, including a sporadically used splitter against lefties that so far has been largely untouched. That could mean Brown has room to experiment with his pitch mix as hitters adjust to him. Thus you like the chances for Brown's per-inning numbers to remain strong. The one thing you worry about as we get deeper into the season is workload. Brown threw 126⅓ innings across two levels last season. This season, he's on pace to jump to around 168. -- Doolittle
The long-term outlook: For Rookie of the Year-type projections, I stay away from pitchers, but if you made me pick one, I'd lean toward a polished type with good command/control. There are just too many ways for a more wild rookie pitcher to flop in Year 1. Brown is that more wild type, more of an "over the plate" type of butcher than a precision surgeon. If you just looked at his surface stats, you wouldn't really see that: a better-than-average walk rate and lots of ground balls suggest pitching to contact with mediocre stuff. The average velocity of 96.1 mph and 10.4 strikeouts per nine shows you who Brown really is, and why it's surprising he's running career-best walk rates in the big leagues. -- McDaniel
5. Yennier Cano, Baltimore Orioles
How he's performed so far: Who? That's a fair question to ask given Cano allowed 43 baserunners in 18 innings in the majors last season between the Twins and Orioles. But he turned overnight from waiver wire fodder to elite reliever, mixing a 96 mph bowling ball sinker with one of the best changeups in the game. He's 1-0 with four saves and a 1.11 ERA after beginning the season with 17 consecutive scoreless outings. He's held batters to a .167 average and has issued just four walks in 32⅓ innings. He might be a 29-year-old rookie All-Star. -- Schoenfield
What to watch for the rest of 2023: Win probability numbers aren't particularly predictive, but Cano has been leading all MLB pitchers in WPA for most of the past month. It's unreal. This is a rookie in his age-29 season who entered 2023 with an 11.50 ERA over 18 MLB innings. Now he's got 33 strikeouts compared to four walks and no one has taken him deep in 26 appearances. Cano is like the Roy Hobbs of relief pitchers. Can it last? Well, no. Not at this level. The command has gone to the next level and that is real improvement. Still, he wasn't at heart an 11.50 ERA pitcher last season and isn't likely a 1.11 ERA pitcher this season. But with relievers, it's all about how they are throwing lately, and wherever Cano's real level settles, it's likely going to keep helping the Orioles win over the near term. -- Doolittle
The long-term outlook: I'm familiar with a lot of prospects, like well into the thousands, so when a prospect has a big league breakout season, I could usually say some smug thing like, "Oh, yeah, I remember him from high school," or something like that. You won't hear it with Cano because he went from prospect afterthought to ROY contender at age 29 with a devilish new changeup that pairs perfectly with a mid-90s sinker. With weighted balls and pitch design, it feels like the random emergence of relievers has become more common, but this one is still as surprising, as Cano is fun to watch. -- McDaniel
6. Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians
How he's performed so far: Kiley's No. 53 overall prospect before the season, the 24-year-old southpaw began the season at Triple-A, but injuries and poor performance from other starters gave Allen an opportunity, and he's 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA in eight starts, with a fine 47/13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 45⅔ innings. His fastball sits 91-92, which makes him more of a finesse lefty these days, but his sweeper and changeup have been effective swing-and-miss offerings. With four home runs allowed, he's so far avoided the long ball issues that plagued him last season in the minors, in which he had a 4.75 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A. -- Schoenfield
What to watch for the rest of 2023: Allen has been both good and consistent over his first two MLB months. Despite his below-average velocity, he's been able to effectively mix in a solid sweeper and, to righties, a change-up -- a combo that has kept his strikeout rate high. Allen also uses a cutter at times against righties, and so far, that's been pulverized. As good as Allen's been, I want to see him validate his showing so far for a few more weeks before I'm buying a ROY candidacy. One red flag for me has been his performance after hitters see him for the first time in an outing. First time through, Allen has allowed a minuscule .198 WOBA. After that, it's been .381. -- Doolittle
The long-term outlook: OK, now back to the smug "I've seen this guy since he was 16 years old" type of scouting report. Allen was a low-90s pitchability lefty with an above-average breaking ball that carved up prep hitters. In college, he started leaning more on a plus changeup but was still a back-end starter type, going in the second round. In pro ball, Cleveland helped optimize things a bit more, and against upper-level hitters, his command proved to be above average just like the raw stuff now was. Poof! Another third starter type the Guardians made out of a second-tier prospect. -- McDaniel
7. Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds
How he's performed so far: The 17th pick in 2021 out of UCLA, McLain began the season at Louisville, but after hitting .348 with 12 home runs in 38 games, the Reds called him up to play shortstop and bat second. And in his second week in the majors, he won NL Player of the Week honors after hitting .484/.543/.774 with two home runs. After hitting just .232 in Double-A in 2022, some swing changes have obviously helped, as McLain is hitting with more power (even though he's 5-foot-8) and a lower strikeout rate. -- Schoenfield
What to watch for the rest of 2023: McLain has been a line-drive machine so far and has tended to stay up the middle for the most part, markers that you like to see when evaluating the sustainability of an early breakout performance. Still, his BABIP (.459) is just not a thing that lasts, and when that starts to ebb, then his worse-than-average strike-zone indicators start to come into play. He's batting .345 over two levels this season; last season that figure was .232. In short, McLain is a strong candidate to regress, but that doesn't mean his numbers will crater. He's got solid pop, plus speed and a good glove, which could be used at any number of spots with Elly De La Cruz now arriving in Cincinnati. McLain probably won't hit .341 the rest of the way, but a talented player with a full toolkit is going to have ongoing value. -- Doolittle
The long-term outlook: I cooled a bit this winter on McLain after he hit .232 in Double-A last season with a 28% strikeout rate and underlying stats to support it. He made a swing adjustment to remedy that issue, mostly on inside pitches, and has been on a heater all season. The negative case at draft time in 2021 was that he's a likely second baseman with more solid average offensive potential than perennial All-Star upside; now we're at the part where we see which is true. -- McDaniel
8. Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
How he's performed so far: Kiley's No. 1 prospect entering the season, the left-handed-hitting infielder has one of the more interesting stat lines: .201/.328/.384, six home runs, 29 walks and 59 strikeouts in 189 plate appearances. That's a lot of Three True Outcomes and, indeed, Henderson's TTO percentage is in the top 10 in the majors. While he started six times at shortstop in April, it's been all third base since then other than one start at shortstop (and a couple at DH). As in his debut last season, he continues to struggle against lefties: .132 (5-for-38) with no extra-base hits. -- Schoenfield
What to watch for the rest of 2023: It's been a grind, but some of Henderson's core skill set has continued to shine through. His walk rate is outstanding, and when he makes contact, he does damage. The problem is clearly the frequency of that contact, and because we haven't really seen evidence of an uptick in that regard yet, it's hard to say when and if it'll come this season. He had 92 plate appearances in both the March/April and May time periods. He struck out 29 times in the initial month and 28 in the second. He hasn't hit lefties at all, with zero extra-base hits against southpaws thus far. And his defense has been lackluster. None of this invalidates Henderson as a super-elite prospect. But he's not a finished product, and with the Orioles in prime playoff contention, Henderson needs to show some progress soon. -- Doolittle
The long-term outlook: Henderson entered the season as the top prospect in baseball and AL ROY favorite alongside Carroll in the NL. Carroll has been excellent and Henderson has been merely good, limited a bit by bad ball-in-play luck. I haven't really adjusted my long-term expectations at all, as the pieces are still here for 25-plus homers, .350-plus OBP and solid enough defense for any infield spot, which could still be what his numbers are at the end of this season. -- McDaniel
9. Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
How he's performed so far: He started in the minors, got called up for three starts, was sent down, but is back up with the Rays and has performed well enough to remain in the rotation: 4-2, 3.60 ERA, 48 K's and just eight walks in 35 innings. That will work, and Bradley certainly pitches with the confidence of a veteran. He's got a nice four-pitch repertoire playing off a 96 mph four-seamer and a cutter; he's thrown those two pitches more than 74% of the time. As you would expect with the Rays, they've been conservative with his pitch counts as he's reached 90 pitches just once and hasn't finished six innings yet. -- Schoenfield
What to watch for the rest of 2023: Bradley has been as effective the second and third times facing hitters in the game as the first, though his third-time-through opportunities have been very limited. That's why he has averaged just five innings per start. We can expect that to continue, as this is the Rays we're talking about, and Bradley has topped out at 133⅓ innings as a professional. Bradley has reverse splits so far, as the changeup he uses against lefties has been dazzling, but righties have mashed his four-seamer. Chances are, these results will regress and the bottom line will remain similar. And that marks Bradley as an elite strikeouts-to-walks pitcher with outstanding quality but perhaps limited quantity. It's the latter part of that equation that will hurt him in terms of awards candidacy. -- Doolittle
The long-term outlook: Bradley's velo has slowly crept up since the 2018 draft when he was sitting in the low-90s as a 17-year-old, mixing in a solid average-flashing breaking ball. He's now sitting 95-97 mph -- that breaker is a plus, hard slider -- and he's basically above average at everything on the mound, having passed through the Rays' pitcher optimization experience. There's a shot he's the next frontline arm behind Shane McClanahan by the end of the year. -- McDaniel
10. Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets
How he's performed so far: The power-hitting backstop is still just 21 years old and arguably rushed to the majors in early April after injuries to Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido. He hit .194 with one home run in his first 13 games but then hit .256/.322/.585 with seven home runs over his next 25. The swing-and-miss rate has been too high, but his defense has been a major surprise. In fact, he's tied for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved among catchers entering this week, and Statcast backs that up with excellent framing metrics (83rd percentile). Catcher defensive stats can be a little murky, to say the least, but the Mets seem happy with Alvarez's D so far. -- Schoenfield
What to watch for the rest of 2023: Alvarez has been all or nothing for the most part at the plate. If his defensive numbers are strong, that works just fine for the Mets. And so far, his defensive numbers have been terrific. But here's the thing: I put little stock in small-sample defensive metrics, no matter what they are. When it comes to players with short track records, like Alvarez, I tend to default to scouting reports. So I'm not sure I'm buying the Alvarez-as-an-elite-defender narrative just yet. The good news is that the plus power we've already seen is here to stay, and his minor league track record suggests he can make up for a defensive regression with improvements in the non-slugging slash categories. -- Doolittle
The long-term outlook: Alvarez was identified years before he could sign in the 2018 international signing class as one of the best -- if not the best -- in the class, and that's stayed true every year since then. He's consistently improved behind the plate defensively, which has been important, as his frame has developed and first base is the only alternative if catcher didn't work. His 70-grade power has shown up at every level in pro ball, but now with his walk rate under 6% and OBP under .300, he's right on the fine line where pitch selection could undermine his offensive upside. He's on the happy side of that line right now. -- McDaniel
A quick look at how teams are doing, as a whole, with their rookie classes this season.
Team rookie leaders
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (2.96 rookie WAR)
2. Cleveland Guardians (2.63)
3. Seattle Mariners (2.17)
4. Houston Astros (2.09)
5. Cincinnati Reds (1.90)
(Note: WAR figures are based on an average of each player's metrics at baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com.)
If the Diamondbacks' cadre of young hurlers gets going, this could become a rout. So far, overseas acquisition Scott McGough, along with more traditional rookies Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt -- among others -- have thus far performed at collective replacement level. More important than Arizona's ranking, of course, is the team's postseason push, and a surge by the young arms would really aid that cause. As for why Arizona leads these rankings right now, obviously it's the hitters (3.01 consensus WAR) who have carried the day. That, of course, starts and mostly ends with overall rookie front-runner Carroll, but center fielder Dominic Fletcher has raced to a fast start to begin his MLB career as well. -- Doolittle