The rumors have begun to fly in mock draft discussions around baseball -- I've already heard a lot of theories during the slow moments of NCAA conference tournaments this week. There continues to be a consensus that the clear top tier of five prospects are very likely to go in the top five picks -- or top six picks if you foresee one major surprise, which is normally a good bet.
With Dylan Crews the consensus top draft prospect since Adley Rutschman in 2019 and teammate Paul Skenes the best draft pitching prospect in a dozen years (since Gerrit Cole in 2011) -- both in amateur baseball's best conference, the SEC -- there's a feeling among some fans that the top of the draft will be chalk like it was in 2019, similar to my first mini-mock, which looks pretty similar to the rankings I did alongside it.
What I think will actually happen is something similar to the mayhem we saw in 2021, when there was a top tier of eight players and none of the popular candidates for top talent in the draft went first overall. Without further ado, here's a look at my first mock draft leading up to the 2023 MLB draft on July 9.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Max Clark, CF, Franklin Community HS (IN)
Now, I still think Crews at No. 1 is the most likely option, but my previous mini-mock outlines how I think that would go -- Crews, Skenes, Wyatt Langford, Walker Jenkins, Clark, in that order -- so I wanted to use this mock to outline what I think is the second most likely outcome and lean into the chaotic vibe I'm getting from my conversations with decision-makers.
The Clark rumor has been gaining steam for weeks and was the first thing a number of scouts mentioned to me at the ACC tournament this past week. If you're wondering how the Pirates could pass on Crews, the logic isn't all that challenging.
When you actually line up these top five players in an overall minor league top 100 as I did last week, Clark is the 34th prospect in the sport and Crews is 13th, with the other three candidates fitting at 19th, 21st, and 25th. I don't think Clark cuts a giant discount, call it $1 million or a bit more (I've heard that more than a few teams have Clark rated a bit higher than I do, noted below).
Let's say the teams that like Clark have him roughly ten spots behind Crews on their version of an overall minor league prospect list. In a draft with a mess of prep talents that could slide with an over-slot bonus promise, Pittsburgh could bank a low seven figure savings on Clark, roll that into its $800,000-plus overage (teams have a 5% allowance to go above their pool) and have a bit over $4 million to spend at their second pick. If they offer that number to a player right after they pick Clark, that player can then ask for $4.5 million knowing he's guaranteed $4.0 million later and effectively price himself down to pick 42 once he's unpicked after pick 15. That's all provided teams think the player will actually go to school if his number isn't met, and there's more than a few of those.
I think Massachusetts prep lefty Thomas White makes the most sense for this scenario as the Brock Porter of this year's draft (Texas' over-slot companion to the under-slot Kumar Rocker deal at No. 3 in last year's draft) due to his upside, despite uneven spring performances. If we presume the Pirates like Clark and White more than most and can get both of them, versus getting Crews and a compensation-round talent, that could be a compelling choice. In a world where Druw Jones was the consensus best prospect in last year's draft and another player in the top tier, Jackson Holliday, is now 20 spots above him on the overall minor league prospect list, there's room for disagreement within the top tier -- and the right instinct could show immediate dividends.
2. Washington Nationals
Dylan Crews, RF, LSU
It's widely believed that the Nats' board is Crews at one and Skenes at two and they love both players, so this should be a no-lose pick for them with both players available here. Now, the Nationals do have an interest in Clark and their scouting director was also taking a long look at Kyle Teel two weeks ago. And they over-index on pitchers more than maybe any other team in baseball. All that being said, it's still very likely they just take Crews if he gets here, with a strong chance that he gets the biggest bonus in the draft.
3. Detroit Tigers
Wyatt Langford, LF, Florida
This connection has long made the most sense, and I think Detroit president of baseball operations Scott Harris wants a college bat all things being equal, so this draft position and player pool lines up well for that. The Tigers' top two scouting execs were seeing Teel two weeks ago and they're kicking the tires on everyone in this top tier, but Langford is likely the pick in this scenario. If Langford is the cut option at one and Crews were to go second, I'm not sure what the Tigers would do, but that helps explain why Teel is in the mix for them -- because knowing who that third college bat is could be key.
4. Texas Rangers
Walker Jenkins, RF, South Brunswick HS (NC)
The Rangers have a real conundrum here. The best pitching prospect in a dozen years (Skenes) is sitting here, along with the best prep hit/power combo since Bobby Witt Jr. in 2019 (Jenkins). I'm told the Rangers wouldn't hesitate to take Crews or Langford if either of them got here, but they're also believed to love Jenkins and Clark. Given how their last two first-round picks are doing, SEC aces Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, I think they'll lean toward the bat this year -- but that's more of a 51/49 educated guess rather than deep intel. I also don't think the Rangers know what they would do if this exact situation were to arise. For what it's worth, I'm hearing the big cut option here would be Vanderbilt's Enrique Bradfield Jr. I also happened to see Texas general manager Chris Young at a Skenes start and at a game for Florida prep shortstop Arjun Nimmala, who seems like a longshot here.
5. Minnesota Twins
Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
When I outlined this scenario to sources over the last few days, I expected a lot of reactions such as, "oh man, the Twins get Skenes!" But I actually had two sources confidently tell me that in this scenario, the Twins would take Jacob Gonzalez over Skenes due to the hitter preference of their draft model. I trust both sources but have trouble imagining Minnesota passing on Skenes after the coming six weeks of war room debates; it's a little too chaotic for even my chaotic scenarios.
This goes to show how much a little surprise up top can blow up the chalk scenario and how teams really don't want to take a pitcher this high if they have a decent other option, something I wrote about last month. I think the broad belief of fans is that Crews and Skenes are clearly the best two talents and the reality is that many, but not all, teams believe that. However, once you factor in asking prices and what can be done with later picks, it gets much messier.
I consistently tell fans the number one thing they don't understand is how different any one team's board is compared to the consensus online ranking. Things could go chalk in the top five, but it only takes one spark for a chain reaction like this -- and I tend to bet on an explosion when there are sparks and fireworks hanging out together.
I've also been told the Twins are very high on prep right Noble Meyer, but I think the overwhelming favorites to go here are Gonzalez or whichever of the top five prospects are still available here.
6. Oakland Athletics
Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss
The A's are (predictably) expected to snap up any of the top five that fall to this spot, or will otherwise likely look to college. Gonzalez seems to have a narrow lead over Chase Dollander, while Teel is a hot name floating around this area of the draft, too.
7. Cincinnati Reds
Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
There's been a lot of chatter that this will be a pitcher, with Dollander gaining steam in the past few weeks as Rhett Lowder was just OK in the ACC tournament. Sources I spoke with believe, only with a medium degree of certainty, that Dollander won't get past this pick. This is probably the high water mark for Meyer, who should fit in the next half dozen picks or so. Arjun Nimmala will also get a look here. The Reds have historically loved to take catchers high, so Teel and prep product Blake Mitchell have been mentioned here, as well.
8. Kansas City Royals
Kyle Teel, C, Virginia
The Royals had multiple high-level evaluators at Meyer's last start (they also picked the prep pitcher combo of Frank Mozzicato/Ben Kudrna for a combined $6.55 million in 2021), have been tied to Dollander all spring and are probably the first spot where Bradfield has a real shot to land. Gonzalez either goes here or in the next two picks if he hasn't already. Teel will go around this area of the draft, and the industry thinks a more conventional college pick is the likely direction here, either due to a slightly different direction from Kansas City GM J.J. Picollo, or that's simply what the board is offering at this point.
9. Colorado Rockies
Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
This is also the area where Lowder will land, give or take a few picks. There's a theory that the Rockies, like with Gabriel Hughes in last year's draft, think they can pick hitters well at lower spots and want to prioritize two seamer-oriented (due to their park) potential starters at higher picks since they can't sign them in free agency. GM Bill Schmidt was sitting behind me to see Teel and Lowder at the ACC tournament but was also spotted watching rising TCU infielder Brayden Taylor and Mitchell recently as well. The Rockies have long been tied to Bradfield, too.
10. Miami Marlins
Matt Shaw, 2B, Maryland
This is around where the second and third tiers of talent start to smush together. Gonzalez would be the pick if he drops down to this spot, and I've also heard conflicting opinions on whether the Fish would take Meyer, Dollander, Bradfield or Nimmala. Shaw, Jacob Wilson and Colin Houck are all potential fits, but Shaw represents the best bet for a quick-moving hit/power combo, which I think is the general aim for the bat-starved Marlins here.
11. Los Angeles Angels
Enrique Bradfield Jr., CF, Vanderbilt
Bradfield should come off the board by the Angels' pick at No. 11, or he'll have an ultimate floor of Boston at 14. Not only do the new rules emphasize Bradfield's 80-grade speed, baserunning and defense, but his skillset is also one that will allow him to move quickly through the minors. I think the Halos would be opportunistic to grab whichever second-tier college talent slides down here.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks
Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS (FL)
Nimmala has some interest in the top 10 and has the highest upside (most current raw power, tied for best chance to stay at short, youngest) of this group of second-tier prep bats, but he also has the biggest question surrounding his hit tool. He could realistically go anywhere from picks seven to 17. This is probably the first spot where I could see Florida Atlantic 1B Nolan Schanuel as a cut option to set up some later moves. I think Lowder, Teel and Gonzalez are the guys that the Diamondbacks are hoping for here, and they'll consider Houck and Jacob Wilson.
13. Chicago Cubs
Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR)
I've heard the Cubs linked to prep infielder Kevin McGonigle and this is probably the top spot where Florida RHP Hurston Waldrep is in play (who has some similarities to Chicago's first rounder last year, Cade Horton). Some scouts also think Tommy Troy and Shaw are targets here. Meyer, however, has one of the best collection of pitcher traits in recent memory, with other recent comps to him going at least this high. He has true frontline potential but isn't as polished at this stage as some of the other elite prep arms that have traits of that caliber: Mick Abel, Andrew Painter, Jackson Jobe and Dylan Lesko.
14. Boston Red Sox
Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
The board is hitter heavy at this point and the Red Sox are looking at some safer, hit-first college players here, while targeting some upside/overpay types like Georgia prep shortstop Tai Peete later on. Mitchell and Aidan Miller are also candidates at this pot from the prep side. There's a perception that Wilson has slipped from a top-10 lock due to his lack of raw power, with teams opting for higher upside types. I think this is as low as Wilson or Bradfield will fall.
15.Chicago White Sox
Colin Houck, 3B, Parkview HS (GA)
I'm again hearing a lot of bats here, mostly on the prep side, with catcher Blake Mitchell being another hot name the White Sox have been getting late looks on. Houck should go sometime between pick 10 and here. He gives me Evan Longoria vibes.
16. San Francisco Giants
Tommy Troy, 3B, Stanford
This is the high-water mark for polarizing Colorado prep shortstop Walker Martin, who is likely to get picked in the 20s or early 30s. The Giants have leaned toward college players with high picks under this regime, so I have them grabbing local boy Troy, who should go in this range anyway.
17. Baltimore Orioles
Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison HS (VA)
The O's have a type of hitter they like to take (power first, physical skills/defense/contact as supporting traits) and they aren't afraid of the risk to get to a player's upside because they're good at developing that type of hitter. Nimmala fits that archetype and I think he'd stop here (GM Mike Elias was there with me to see Nimmala last month), while Colin Houck, Aidan Miller and Blake Mitchell all also fit. I'm leaning toward Eldridge here, though, as he's both local-ish from the D.C. area and is a bit of a unicorn as a prospect.
Eldridge is a 6-foot-7 prep first baseman with 30-homer upside, had some of the best summer contact rates, and has second-round talent on the mound as a backup plan. He's told teams he'd like to play both ways early in his career, which could be useful in the early going if he's like Brendan McKay and teams that have him as a bat simply misevaluated him. That package is enticing enough that I think he'll land in the teens for a club with a strong development plan.
18. Milwaukee Brewers
Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU
Taylor was a top-10 candidate entering the spring and then started slow, but he is now red hot and receiving looks from decision-makers who have top-10 picks at the Big 12 tourney. So, this is maybe a few picks later than where I'd set his over/under. Like many other picks in this area, I'm stretching to even think of a pitcher to justify taking here, as Hurston Waldrep is the only real candidate.
19. Tampa Bay Rays
Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell HS (FL)
Miller looked like a potential top-10 pick entering the spring and then missed most of the season with a broken hamate bone, though he was swinging a bat recently, so he should be back soon. He's been a famous showcase type for years, and the Rays probably know the most of anyone about the local boy; this is also about as low as he'd go in my mind. Miller has a violent swing with electric bat speed and a third-base fit, inviting Josh Donaldson comps.
20. Toronto Blue Jays
Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton HS (TX)
Mitchell is one of the prep bats to get the short end of the stick here -- there's simply too many of them to all jam into picks in the teens, as buzz would suggest. I'm hearing the Jays mostly linked to athletic prep bats like Dillon Head, but we're getting to the point where Waldrep is a defensible choice, and Toronto is taking a long look there as well.
21. St. Louis Cardinals
Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic
Schanuel is a hot name with some buzz as a cut-rate option as early as the late top 10 but more likely going between pick 15 and around here. He's leading the nation in OPS at 1.476, and his draft value benefits from the universal DH. The Cards are seen by many teams as the stopping point for Schanuel, so I'll stick him here.
22. Seattle Mariners
Kevin McGonigle, 2B, Monsignor Bonner HS (PA)
When I showed scouts a list of all the prep bats from Nimmala at No. 12 down to here and asked which one slides out of the top 20, the most common answer was McGonigle, due to his size and lack of shortstop skills. He's also arguably the best hitter and overall offensive performer of the group, and Seattle is on a prep bat-picking heater with Edwin Arroyo, Harry Ford and Cole Young in the past two drafts -- and McGonigle is probably the safest hitter of that group. I wouldn't be surprised if the M's lean into prep talent and/or a moldable pitcher (another hot area for them, with George Kirby and Logan Gilbert among their successes) at one of their two comp picks.
23. Cleveland Guardians
Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
The Guardians are known for taking "boring" college pitchers with average stuff in Round 3 and beyond and turning a disproportionate amount of them into real big league arms with above-average stuff (Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, Zach Plesac, James Karinchak, etc.). They also tend to lean toward pitchers with some medical/command risk in the first round (Daniel Espino, Tanner Burns, Gavin Williams), and Waldrep fits that mold with four above-average pitches and fringy command that leads to relief questions.
24. Atlanta Braves
Chase Davis, LF, Arizona
Davis is a hot name who has taken a big step forward this spring in terms of contact but is still limited to left field without much speed/defensive value to offer. He should go in the 20s and fits the Braves given the pitcher-heavy draft they had last year, though Atlanta tends to prefer up-the-middle position players.
25. San Diego Padres
Dillon Head, CF, Homewood Flossmoor HS (IL)
Head is among the upside types whom GM A.J. Preller has seen play well this spring and he has a real shot to go in the top 20, so this would be a nice value as well. Head is a true top-of-the-scale 80 runner with a chance for 20 homers annually, a prospect superior -- for me -- to Justin Crawford, last year's 17th pick by the Phillies and a player the Padres really liked.
26. New York Yankees
Sammy Stafura, SS, Walter Panas HS (NY)
You're going to see Stafura at this pick in mock drafts a lot over the next month, as the Yankees are one of a couple or teams (the Royals are another) all over him. The Yankees are the first of those teams to pick at a spot where Stafura could be taken, so they should have a clear path here. There's some Trevor Story vibes (physical skills at shortstop with power) with real questions on if Stafura can hit, but he's also a bit of a late bloomer, coming from a lighter baseball background in a cold-weather area that's local to the Yankees, so there's some license to project more than with other players in this range. I feel like I'm just obliged to mention Anthony Volpe in this blurb, so there you go.
27. Philadelphia Phillies
Steven Echavarria, RHP, Millburn HS (NJ)
Echavarria is the best prospect for some scouts from a strong group of northeastern arms. He offers real starter command and projection with above-average now stuff, while some other candidates for second-best prep arm in the draft come with more risk for injury or loss of value if they lose a notch of velocity, or more bonus demands that will slide them into the comp round. Philly has leaned into risk as a good thing, and it's worked so far with Painter, Abel and Crawford.
This is also where we get low enough that it's a little too early to have a real clear list of candidates for a pick, so I'm largely profiling teams at this point unless otherwise stated.
28. Houston Astros
Walker Martin, SS, Eaton HS (CO)
That said, I've heard that the Astros are the other likely spot for Martin if the Giants pass on him. Martin is one of my favorite upside-types in this deep prep hitter class, and after getting two of my top values in Drew Gilbert and Jacob Melton in last year's draft, this would be a nice fit for the Astros. They're also one of the higher teams on UNC third baseman Mac Horvath, though he likely will go in the second round.
Prospect Promotion Incentive Draft Pick
29. Seattle Mariners: Adrian Santana, SS, Doral Academy HS (FL)
(Received for Julio Rodriguez winning Rookie of the Year)
Competitive Balance Round A
I've included my projection here on the Mets' and Dodgers' first picks, both of which slid down 10 spots because of luxury tax spending.
30. Seattle Mariners: Josh Knoth, RHP, Patchogue-Medford HS (NY)
31. Tampa Bay Rays: Jack Hurley, CF, Virginia Tech
32. New York Mets: Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami
Multiple scouts told me the Mets are really in on Morales, who could go in the 20s but has a chance to get here -- and does in this scenario. He has potential 30-homer upside and can play third base, but his long arms create some contact issues; there are some similarities to Mark Vientos.
33. Milwaukee Brewers: George Lombard Jr., SS, Gulliver Prep HS (FL)
34. Minnesota Twins: Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn HS (OH)
35. Miami Marlins: Tai Peete, SS, Trinity Christian HS (GA)
36. Los Angeles Dodgers: Jonny Farmelo, RF, Westfield HS (VA)
I wanted to put Rhode Island prep LHP Alex Clemmey here, since he's the closest thing to Dodgers 2021 first-rounder Maddux Bruns as a 70-stuff, well-below-average-command prep lefty. That said, I'm told they're one of a handful of teams that love Farmelo and he's likely to go in the late 20s or 30s, so there's a real chance they get a shot to pick him here.
37. Detroit Tigers: Trent Caraway, SS, JSerra Catholic HS (CA)
38. Cincinnati Reds: Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
39. Oakland Athletics: Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian HS (FL)