Yes, it's still early -- but as the calendar turns to May, it's impossible to deny that the top of the MLB standings looks very different from what was expected going into the season. In fact, only one of the teams our experts predicted to win their divisions ahead of Opening Day is in first place right now.
Which of the fast starts is most surprising, what's powering the rising teams and how long will their unexpected stays atop their divisions last? Let's dig in with a look at each of the six early division leaders, including a surprise score and snapshot of what's powered them to the top -- and if it will continue.
AL East: Tampa Bay Rays
Surprise score: 7
Signature game: Down 3-0 against the White Sox this past Saturday, the Rays exploded for 10 runs in the seventh inning, hitting three home runs and two doubles and stealing three bases along the way. The Rays hit just 139 home runs last season; they finished April with 61.
Key statistic: Those 61 home runs were not only a record for April, but only two teams since 2010 have hit more home runs in any month (the Yankees in August of 2021 and the Blue Jays in September of 2021). The Rays had four players hit seven home runs in April; 17 teams had no players hit seven.
Key player: After a hot start, Jeffrey Springs went down with an injury requiring Tommy John surgery, so the eventual return of Tyler Glasnow from an oblique injury will be vital for the rotation depth. Glasnow had his own TJ surgery in 2021, returned at the end of last season to make two starts, but then injured his oblique throwing a live batting practice session at the end of February. Even without Springs, a rotation with Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Zach Eflin should rate among the best in the majors.
Biggest concern: That the Rays just built up this record against a soft early schedule. Indeed, they lost series to the Blue Jays and Astros, the two toughest teams they've played so far. Their next 39 games are now against teams that began May with winning records.
Assessment: Look, no matter the schedule, it was one of the most dominant Aprils we've ever seen (their plus-102 differential set an April record). The offense will certainly slow down, but they have so many players off to hot starts and what looks like real improvement from the likes of Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe (and a healthy Brandon Lowe, who hit 39 home runs in 2021), that this looks like a deep, lethal lineup.
On the other hand, they've played just seven games within the best division in baseball. Even with fewer division games with the new schedule, that still leaves 45 games against AL East opponents. The Orioles and Blue Jays are off to great starts as well. In other words, don't hand the division to the Rays just yet. Also, let's see if the Rays can keep their pitchers healthy. As good as they are at developing pitchers and finding guys like Springs and Rasmussen, they also have had a difficult time keeping pitchers healthy. Rookie Taj Bradley impressed in his call-up, and guys like Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming have started in the past, so there is depth here if needed. I'd pick the Rays to win the division at this point, but this still looks like a potential four-team race -- and, heck, don't discount the Red Sox either.
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
Surprise score: 4
Signature game: The Twins beat the Yankees 6-2 last week with four runs in the sixth inning on two-run home runs from Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach. What made that game so special? It clinched their first season-series win over the Yankees since 2001.
Key statistic: The Twins led the majors in strikeout rate in April at 26.9%. No, not hitting strikeout rate; pitching strikeout rate. Yes, the Twins -- not exactly an organization known for power pitching the past few decades. The rotation ranked 20th in the majors last season in strikeout rate and has improved to second this season as several starters, including new addition Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan, added a sweeper to their repertoire.
Key player: Buxton and Joey Gallo have led the way on offense -- two risky players to rely upon given Buxton's injury history and Gallo's history of sub-.200 batting averages. That means Carlos Correa likely needs to start hitting. His strikeout and walk rates were normal in April, but his hard-hit rate was down and his average exit velocity was down more than 3 mph from 2022. It's too early to be overly concerned, but the Twins need him to be a middle-of-the-order bat.
Biggest concern: Rotation depth. Kenta Maeda allowed 10 runs in his past start and then was placed on the IL with a triceps injury. Tyler Mahle followed with an elbow impingement and will be shut down for four weeks. Bailey Ober is filling in for Maeda, with Louie Varland or Simeon Woods Richardson next in line to replace Mahle.
Assessment: The biggest thing the Twins have going for them is the rest of the AL Central, which has been a debacle. That's not to discount what is a pretty solid roster from 1 through 26. Even Ober and Varland are decent enough options for sixth and seventh starters, and with Buxton limited to DH duties so far, Michael Taylor has given Minnesota a solid defender in center field who has hit well enough. Gallo has been a terrific pickup so far, and I expect Jose Miranda to start hitting.
With how the Guardians look right now -- no power, the starting pitching struggling -- the Twins have already separated themselves in my book. The oddsmakers and computer projections agree, giving the Twins about a 75% chance to win the division. Gallo and Sonny Gray (4-0, 0.77 ERA) will slow down, so others will have to pick up the slack, and last year's September fade lingers in the background. I don't think the Twins are a great team, but they can win 90 games and that will be enough in the AL Central.
AL West: Texas Rangers
Surprise score: 8
Signature game: After rallying from a 5-0 deficit to beat the Phillies on Opening Day thanks to a nine-run fourth inning, the Rangers made an even bigger statement in their second game with a 16-3 victory. They're tied with the Rays with seven games scoring 10-plus runs and only Tampa Bay has scored more runs overall. While the Rangers remade their rotation in the offseason, the offense has been impressive as well even though Corey Seager has played just 11 games due to a hamstring injury.
Key statistic: A plus-72 run differential. Again, only the Rays are better, but it's an impressive total: the sixth largest through a team's first 29 games since 2010 (the Rays are first at plus-103). Of the top 15 teams not including the Rays, all 15 made the playoffs -- and three won the World Series (the 2016 Cubs, 2018 Red Sox and 2020 Dodgers). The worst record among those 15 teams was 88-74.
Key player: Jacob deGrom. For now, deGrom is optimistic about the forearm tightness that landed him on the injured list. "There's a little inflammation in there, so the goal is to get that knocked out here in the next few days and resume throwing," he told reporters on Sunday. The rotation is certainly much improved, and now the depth will get tested with Dane Dunning stepping into deGrom's slot.
Biggest concern: Rangers left fielders have hit .213/.295/.255 for the second-lowest OPS in the majors. Manager Bruce Bochy has already started five different players there, so it remains mix-and-match for now. Leody Taveras also hasn't given them much offense in center field.
Assessment: It's hard to ignore that run differential and the context of the other teams that started a season in similar dominant fashion. You don't fluke your way to a plus-72 differential over 29 games. Yes, four of those double-digit games came against the Royals and A's, but the Rangers also swept the Phillies to begin the season and took three of four from the Yankees last weekend (although taking advantage of an Aaron Judge-less lineup for all but two at-bats in the series).
Offensively, Jonah Heim has been hot so we'll have to see if he can maintain it, and Adolis Garcia's 5-for-5, 8-RBI game against the A's boosted his overall numbers, but this looks like a very good offensive team even with the holes in the outfield. Nathaniel Lowe, Marcus Semien, Josh Jung and the eventual return of Seager give the Rangers a power-hitting infield at all four positions. Not surprisingly, the playoff hopes really rest on the health of the rotation -- not just deGrom, but Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Jon Gray all missed significant time last season. Maybe I'm overrating the Rangers because of a few blowout victories over the hapless Royals and A's, but if the rotation stays healthy this is a team that can win the division. Can the Rangers win it without deGrom? That's a tougher ask.
NL East: Atlanta Braves
Surprise score: 1
Signature game: An 11-0 thrashing of the Marlins on April 24, when Spencer Strider took a no-hitter into the eighth and the offense hit five home runs. That's the best of the Braves: a Cy Young contender starter and power up and down the lineup.
Key statistic: The Braves are 9-1 when Strider or Max Fried starts. Oh, yeah, the Braves have another ace. Fried missed a couple of weeks when he tweaked a hamstring in the season opener, but he hasn't allowed a run in three starts since returning.
Key player: Ronald Acuna Jr. has been the best player in the National League so far: hitting for average, hitting for power, stealing bases and suddenly striking out much less than he ever has before. His fly ball rate still remains lower than it was before his torn ACL in 2021, so if he can improve that launch angle we'll start seeing even more home runs. Not that there's anything wrong with this version of Acuna.
Biggest concern: Raisel Iglesias began the season on the IL with a shoulder strain and is just now completing a rehab assignment in Triple-A. In his absence A.J. Minter struggled in the closer role, blowing three games in a seven-game stretch, including a 4-0 lead against the Marlins. It was a weird stretch for a guy who was so good last season, so it's probably just a momentary blip (it's not like he started walking everybody or had a sudden loss in velocity). Still, Iglesias and Minter were supposed to be the one-two punch out of the bullpen, and one has been hurt and one has struggled.
Assessment: There's no surprise here. The Braves are really good, just as we expected. Right now their fifth-best starter is Kyle Wright, who won 21 games last season. Their depth was tested early on with the injuries to Fried, Wright, Michael Harris II and Orlando Arcia and they didn't blink. If Acuna hasn't been the NL MVP so far, it's been catcher Sean Murphy. Harris just returned from his back injury and Austin Riley hasn't gone on a heater yet.
Besides the back of the bullpen, there are a couple of other issues. Marcell Ozuna has been terrible and his days as the regular DH or even part-time DH appear to be winding down. Eddie Rosario now has nearly 500 plate appearances with the Braves and the only time he hit was during the 2021 postseason (on such hot streaks are World Series won). With Harris back, Sam Hilliard is another option for left field. But those are minor inconveniences for now. With the Mets battling a bunch of injuries on their pitching staff, the Braves' odds to win the NL East have only improved since the start of the season.
NL Central: Pittsburgh Pirates
Surprise score: 10
Signature game: The Pirates blew a 4-2 lead in the top of the ninth (closer David Bednar has otherwise been stellar) against the Astros on April 11, but Ji Hwan Bae hit a walk-off home run for the 7-4 victory. The Pirates have been getting key contributions from unlikely sources all season.
Key statistic: The Pirates lead the majors in quality starts with 18 in their first 29 games. The Blue Jays are second with 15 and no other team has more than 13. This is in sharp contrast to 2022, when the Pirates had just 38 quality starts all season (28th in the majors). In 2021, they were last with just 25 quality starts.
Key player: The Pirates have stuck with Mitch Keller, after his rocky rookie season in 2019 when he posted an ugly 7.13 ERA in 11 starts. Then came a rocky 2021 when he posted an ugly 6.17 ERA over 23 starts. He finally showed improvement last season with a 3.91 ERA and he has been even better in 2023 as the hits are down, the walks are down slightly and, most importantly, the strikeouts are up significantly. A new cutter appears to be the key and he's throwing it 25% of the time, which in turn has seemed to help his four-seamer and sinker become more effective.
Biggest concern: Can the rotation really keep this going? They're just 18th in strikeout rate and have been stranding runners left and right (fifth-best left on base percentage). Vince Velasquez has a 3.06 ERA after not being under 4.85 since 2016. Rich Hill is 43. Johan Oviedo has to prove his early performance is for real. I'll buy Keller and Roansy Contreras, but let's see about those other three.
Assessment: Nobody saw this coming, not even the Pirates -- especially when you factor in that Oneil Cruz, who was hopefully headed for a big breakout season, broke his ankle on a play at home plate and has played just nine games. Compare the Pirates to the Rangers. The Pirates lost 100 games last year (after losing 101 in 2021 and having the worst record in the majors in 2020). The Rangers lost 94 games in 2022 and 102 in 2021, but while the raw win-loss records weren't that much different, the Rangers had a minus-36 run differential while the Pirates were minus-226. On top of that, the Rangers made some significant offseason additions, while the Pirates scoured the old-age homes to sign Hill, Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Santana. Going from a minus-226 run differential to a division title would be unprecedented in major league history.
So, yes, for now it's fair to be a little skeptical. Not only has the starting pitching been better than expected, but the offense has been one of the best in the majors, averaging 5.38 runs per game, up from 3.65 last season. McCutchen's return and production has been one of the best stories of the season and Jack Suwinski and Connor Joe are doing their best Willie Stargell/Dave Parker impersonation at the moment.
Still, the 20-9 start through Monday is impressive. Can a bad team have a stretch like that? The best 29-game stretch last season for a team that ended up with a losing record was 21-8 by the Red Sox, who finished 78-84, and 21-8 by the Twins, who also finished 78-84. The Angels had a 20-9 stretch and finished 73-89. This is a polite way of saying, yes, a losing team can have an incredible month of play. I hope the Pirates are for real. At the minimum, this guarantees they will be worth watching the first half, and if they can hang in there they'll put pressure on ownership to add at the trade deadline (yeah, right) rather than trade away the likes of David Bednar or Hill. Upcoming series against the Rays and Blue Jays will be a good test. I hope they keep it going.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
Surprise score: 2
Signature game: The Dodgers beat the Cardinals 1-0 this past Saturday as Clayton Kershaw tossed seven scoreless innings and allowed just two hits with nine K's and no walks. Kershaw averages just 91.2 mph with his fastball, which is actually up 0.5 mph from 2022, but he spots it so well and his slider and curveball remain so deceptive that Kershaw remains as effective as ever at 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA.
Key statistic: Max Muncy and James Outman have combined for 18 home runs and rank fifth and 12th in the majors in OPS. Even though several regulars have started the season with a sub-.200 average so far, those two along with Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith and J.D. Martinez have kept the Dodgers as one of the best offenses in the majors.
Key player: Julio Urias has gone 37-10 with a 2.57 ERA the past two seasons. He's been a little more hittable early on (at least until Tuesday night, when he allowed one hit in seven innings against the Phillies) and given that Kershaw is either unlikely to keep pitching this well or unlikely to keep pitching this well for 30 starts, the Dodgers need Urias at the top of his game.
Biggest concern: You could say shortstop what with Gavin Lux's season-ending injury and Miguel Rojas' offensive woes, but Betts has stepped in adequately handled the position in a handful of starts so far. I still don't know if that's the long-term solution and taking Betts out of the outfield just opens up a hole there (assuming Jason Heyward doesn't keep up his 144 OPS+). If not shortstop, certainly rotation depth. Noah Syndergaard has a 6.32 ERA through six starts.
Assessment: It's hardly shocking the Dodgers are in first place, although it feels like it's been a struggle, at least until this past weekend's sweep of the Cardinals. Of our 28 voters in our preseason predictions, 16 picked the Padres to win the NL West while 12 picked the Dodgers, so the Padres were slight favorites. The Diamondbacks are hanging in here as well and it's notable that they beat the Dodgers five of eight games back in the first two weeks of the season.
Clearly, this isn't the same juggernaut Dodgers team we've seen the past four seasons - 106 wins in 2019, a 116-win pace in 2020, 106 wins in 2021 and 111 wins last season. Then again, that is arguably the greatest run of regular seasons in MLB history. It's impossible to keep playing at that level year after year. That the Dodgers sit in first place despite some big holes in the lineup and poor returns from the bottom of the rotation may actually be a good sign: Some of the struggling players are bound to improve even as Muncy and Outman might regress. Of course, the Padres are right there despite some of their own inconsistency so far. The NL West remains a coin flip - albeit perhaps a three-way toss.