Every fall, the postseason surprises us with new heroes. Like Joe Kelly, who was nearly left off Boston's playoff roster in 2018 because of ineffectiveness but suddenly emerged as a shutdown reliever on the Red Sox's drive to a championship. Or the 35-year-old Howie Kendrick, who, at the end of an excellent career, had moved into a part-time role for the 2019 Nationals before delivering the biggest hits in the biggest moments. Or how about Christian Colon, whose one plate appearance in the 2015 World Series resulted in a tiebreaking pinch-hit in extra innings.
It's impossible to predict -- but for every team in every postseason series, there are discernible fault lines that could break or make a deep run.
The top dozen matchups of the wild-card round of the playoffs:
Josh Hader vs. weariness
In his years with the Brewers, the left-hander was a dominant force, to the degree that his former manager, Craig Counsell, felt a case could be made for Hader as the best reliever ever. Counsell would roll out Hader for an inning, for two innings, maybe more, and Hader tended to strike out most of the batters he faced.
But something has changed in 2022 for Hader, who was dented before and after the Brewers traded him to the Padres, finishing the season with a 5.22 ERA. Eventually, the San Diego staff settled on a belief that Hader now needs more rest -- and probably is better off limited to an inning per game -- and Hader seemed to bounce back. In his first two weeks with the Padres, Hader worked on back-to-back days twice, and in each case, he allowed three runs on the second day. Since Aug. 31, Hader has pitched on back-to-back days on only one occasion, and he has never been asked to get more than three outs in any appearance. His ERA in those 12 outings was 0.79, and he held opponents to a 1.28 ERA.
The postseason, though, inevitably tests bullpen structure and usage rules -- and Hader might be pushed right away, because the Padres might play three consecutive days this weekend. Will Padres manager Bob Melvin test fate and call on Hader repeatedly?
The Toronto and St. Louis lineups vs. the carousel of right-handed relievers
It isn't that the Blue Jays' and Cardinals' lineups aren't dangerous -- Toronto has Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the blistering hot Teoscar Hernandez, and St. Louis has Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and the resurrected Albert Pujols -- but the choices against them are simplified for opposing managers, because the lineups are so right-handed. If the Phillies are to find a way to beat the favored Cardinals, then Rob Thomson's bullpen righties will have to be effective -- including and perhaps especially Zach Eflin, who moved from the rotation to the bullpen late this season and got a crucial save in the last week of the season. Similarly, the Mariners' Scott Servais will have to lean heavily on what is a deep stable of bullpen righties to get through Toronto's dangerous starting 9.
Julio Rodriguez vs. some rust
In the midst of Rodriguez's amazing show in the Home Run Derby, Mookie Betts circled behind home plate, carrying his young daughter, and stepped forward to encourage Rodriguez to keep it going. And to get a closer look: As Betts explained to a reporter a moment later, this was the first time he had seen Rodriguez swing a bat in person. "Oh, my god," Betts exclaimed.
Rodriguez's transcendent talent and athleticism hoisted the Mariners to the postseason this year, but he spent much of the final push on the injured list, coping with a back strain; he was out of action from Sept. 23 to Oct. 2, getting 11 plate appearances over the last three days of the regular season. Rodriguez looked good against Detroit, with five hits, including a double and a homer, but the Blue Jays' staff of Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, et al., will provide a stiffer test. The Mariners need Rodriguez at full speed as soon as possible.
The Mets rotation vs. the challenges of aging
Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer will make speeches in Cooperstown some day, and Chris Bassitt will make a ton of money as a free agent this winter. But this trio that makes up the core of the Mets' postseason hopes are all on the downslopes of their respective pitching careers, more susceptible than ever to breakdowns. In Scherzer's last start, John Smoltz -- already in the Hall -- said on the game broadcast that he sensed as if Scherzer was holding back in his delivery, maybe because of lingering effects from the oblique issue that sidelined him in the offseason. DeGrom dealt with a blister issue in his last outing of the regular season, and nobody really knows if or how and when that might manifest against the Padres. Bassitt didn't look comfortable in his last start of the regular season, either, often stretching or twisting between pitches on the mound -- although one organization source said that Bassitt was fine, and if anything, he was too strong after a lot of days off between starts.
If the Mets are going to make Steve Cohen's dream of a championship become a reality, the starting pitchers have to lead the way; the Mets probably need four to five starts out of each of them to get to a World Series dogpile. At the outset of what is typically a long grind of a postseason, they seem vulnerable.
Steven Kwan and Amed Rosario vs. the Cleveland power drought
The Guardians' equation for success is fragile because of the team's modest run production. Among the 12 teams that have reached the postseason, Cleveland ranks 10th in runs scored and last in home runs. Hell, the Guardians ranked 29th among all 30 teams in home runs, with 127. Their style is unique, with their hitters generally putting the ball in play better than any other team -- albeit without power -- and challenging defenses to respond.
But that can work only if the top of the Guardians' lineup consistently created opportunities by getting into scoring position for Jose Ramirez and the middle of the Cleveland lineup, and that responsibility falls on Kwan and Rosario, who combined to score 174 runs during the regular season; this duo and Ramirez were the only players on the team to score more than 66 runs.
The Cleveland rotation and bullpen don't need a lot of run support to win. But if the Rays shut down the top of the Guardians' lineup -- if Kwan and Rosario don't lead the offense -- it'll be really difficult for the Cleveland lineup to make up for the loss.
Wander Franco vs. the impact of nagging injuries
It has been a frustrating season for one of the game's best talents: Franco played in only 83 regular-season games because of a series of injuries, posting an unimpressive slash line of .277/.328/.417. But he has been back on the field for most of the last month, enough time to start working his way back to being a high-impact player, and he might be poised for a breakout against Cleveland. In his last 20 games, Franco batted .310/.383/.465, with nine walks and just six strikeouts. And Franco has demonstrated that he's not afraid of the big stage. Cleveland has to contain him over the next few days.
The Rays vs. the back end of the Guardians' bullpen
Terry Francona demonstrated during Cleveland's postseason run in 2016 how effective he was in deploying high-end relievers, picking the right matchups for Andrew Miller, Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw. The group Francona can call on now rivals that '16 bullpen for its ability to shut down a lineup: Closer Emmanuel Clase might be the game's best reliever right now, having generated an adjusted ERA+ of 281 in the regular season. James Karinchak has struck out 62 of the 160 batters he has faced, with a 2.08 ERA. Enyel De Los Santos has held opponents to a .150 batting average over his past 18 outings. And there are other good relievers, as well. If Cleveland's starting pitchers can deliver leads into the hands of the Guardians' bullpen, Francona & Co. will be a tough out.
Paul Goldschmidt vs. the grind
The first baseman seems likely to win the NL MVP Award, despite a slow finish -- in Goldschmidt's last 27 games, he has batted .245 with two homers in 108 plate appearances. Through his analytical nature, Goldschmidt has always been a relentless problem-solver, with his swing, his baserunning, his defense, and now the pressure will be on him to find the approach that enables him to do damage against the next-level pitching that typically emerges in October. Goldschmidt does not have a home run in his past 21 games -- his last blast was Sept. 7 against the Nationals -- a power outage that spans 83 plate appearances.
Bo Bichette vs. the internal combustion
As much as any player in the big leagues, Bichette served as a barometer for the Blue Jays. When he slumped, the Toronto offense seemed sluggish, inconsistent, but when Bichette was rolling -- as he was during the Blue Jays' late-season push for the No. 1 wild-card spot -- the whole lineup seemed a lot better, reflecting the sort of free-and-easy confidence that made them so dangerous late in 2021. But friends say Bichette tends to put a lot of pressure on himself, and like many players participating in the postseason early in their careers, he'll have to find a balance between intensity and a relaxed comfort.
In games that the Blue Jays lost this season, Bichette hit .256/.298/.370; in games that they won, he batted .314/.358/.541.
The Padres vs. their center-field quandary
There's no getting around this: center field has been a mess for San Diego this season. Padres center fielders ranked 26th among the 30 teams in wRC+, at 81, leaving Melvin with some imperfect options headed into the postseason. If he wants to opt for offense, he could go with Wil Myers, but Myers is regarded as a subpar defender. Melvin could try Trent Grisham, who was acquired from Milwaukee a couple of years back to fill this role, but Grisham has had a miserable season, batting .184 with a .341 slugging percentage. Lately, Melvin has been deploying Jose Azocar, who has been more competitive at the plate, hitting .257 -- but mostly, he'd be out there for defense, to help the pitching staff. Contributions from this position, good or bad, are a wild card in the wild-card series.
Bryce Harper vs. the big stage
The slugger who graced the cover of Sports Illustrated as a teenager is now middle-aged, by baseball standards. Harper turns 30 in a couple of weeks, and more than ever, he carries himself on and off the field with a learned maturity. Since coming back from an elbow injury, Harper has a .352 slugging percentage, with just three homers in 151 plate appearances. But Harper now has accomplished so much in the game that the Cardinals will ignore those kinds of numbers and regard him as a threat, because of his experience -- and it should shock no one if Harper, like many superstars of the past, is able to elevate his performance in the biggest moments.
Francisco Alvarez vs. opportunity
It seems strange that a rookie with 12 plate appearances in the big leagues could be an X factor for a veteran-laden team that just won 101 games in the regular season, but Alvarez intrigued the staff in those at-bats -- the confidence, the poise, and of course, the power, for a team that has relatively little power, when compared to elite teams like the Braves and Dodgers. Buck Showalter has mentioned that in his first conversation with Alvarez, he noticed the masher has muscles in his toes. "I've never seen anyone with muscles in his toes before," Showalter said.
The takeaway of the decision-makers in the organization, after Alvarez's first games, is that he is not afraid of a pressure moment -- and that's why he's on the postseason roster. Then, it'll be up to Showalter to decide when and where to inject such a dangerous and aggressive hitter. At his worst, Alvarez is capable of a quick strikeout in which he chases pitches out of the zone. At his best -- and the Mets have already seen his best -- he could launch a ball into the seats in a big spot.