This year's MLB playoff format will include the largest field ever for a full season, with 12 of the 30 teams (40%) retaining title hopes. For the other 60%, the start of the 2022 postseason means the start of the offseason.
For these 18 clubs, the focus is now on 2023 and beyond. And as they chart a course that they hope will get them into the top 40%, it begins with one key question. It's one of many to be asked, of course, but all journeys must begin with the choosing of a direction.
Here is the key question each non-playoff team will be -- or at least should be -- asking in the days to come.
Arizona Diamondbacks: How close are we?
Maybe Arizona needs another season as a proof of concept, but under new pitching coach Brent Strom, the formerly pitching-deprived Diamondbacks seem to have miraculously become a potential run-prevention juggernaut. They aren't there yet, to be sure, but the development of Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen into an elite one-two rotation punch is a great foundation on which to build. The team defense was outstanding as well. How much of all this was real, and how much was a blip? If it was real, the Diamondbacks would appear to be one or two big hitters away from making a run at a wild-card spot next season. We'll get a solid indication of how Arizona views its run-prevention gains by the way it approaches this winter on the hitting side.
Baltimore Orioles: How high should our payroll go in 2023?
In August, Orioles GM Mike Elias told reporters, "It's liftoff from here for this team." Perhaps some of that was strategic bluster to assuage a fan base that was perhaps a little annoyed by Baltimore's trade-deadline approach, but there is clearly plenty of evidence that the Orioles could be one of baseball's most interesting teams this winter. After making a spirited run at a sooner-than-expected playoff slot, all trendlines are pointed up for this club. The source of the excitement is young talent such as Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez. But there is also nothing but room on a pristine payroll outlook. Even if the Orioles spend only enough to push near the MLB average payroll in 2023, we're talking about an expansion of tens of millions. So will the Orioles splurge on a couple of top-tier free agents, or will they spread it around?
Boston Red Sox: Is our long-term future going to include Devers, Bogaerts, both or neither?
Boston GM Chaim Bloom has already said the Red Sox are ready to spend big, claiming that now they have the minor league depth to make that kind of strategy plausible. The thinking is the Red Sox can take on some big contracts now, while filling the gaps on the roster with talented young players who won't eat up a lot of payroll. But the key question is whether or not that means starting that spending spree by keeping their current franchise cornerstones in place. Xander Bogaerts is almost certainly going to opt out and hit free agency. The Red Sox could re-sign him, but they'll have to pay what the market bears. The contingency is in place, as Boston will have Trevor Story back, but he's coming off a couple of so-so seasons. Rafael Devers is headed toward a walk season in 2023 unless an extension can be inked, and if it can't, then the trade rumors will start flying. The Red Sox should have money to spend this winter, but in order to know where to focus that spending, Boston will have reach some kind of resolutions for Bogaerts and Devers.
Chicago Cubs: We say we're ready to spend, but is there enough of a youthful foundation to make that pay off?
In some ways, the Cubs have already signaled that they think the answer to the above question is yes. But what is that future core? And how many prospects can they count on in the short term to fill the gaps if the Cubs really do amp up the payroll? Well, while the Cubs are an economic giant that can spend big to fill roster gaps, perhaps the biggest reason to hope for a quick turnaround is not necessarily a group of players but a systems upgrade. The Cubs have spent much of this season touting their improved developmental processes on the pitching side, as evidenced by the rise of young starters such as Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, Javier Assad and Hayden Wesneski. If the Cubs think they are ready to replicate those successes going forward, then the strategy becomes clear: Go big this winter on free agent bats.
Chicago White Sox: How can we improve our depth?
The top-of-the-roster talent on the South Side remains excellent. That's true even though the production and availability of a lot of the players we count among those impact talents fell short in 2022. At this point, Chicago has little choice but to bank on rebound seasons from Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, Yasmani Grandal, Lucas Giolito, et al. Some of them need to play better. Some of them need to be more durable. Some need to do both. If that doesn't happen collectively, then the depth question will hardly matter. Even if the bounce-backs happen, the White Sox will need to figure out how to create better depth in support of that top tier of talent, especially as the minor league system does not seem poised to solve this problem internally.
Cincinnati Reds: Can we get our position player development to the same level as our pitcher development?
A few years ago, this would have seemed like an unlikely dilemma, as the Reds seemed completely incapable of developing successful pitching. That has changed. Despite the number of high-profile departures from the Reds' rotation and bullpen the past couple of years, Cincinnati had more production out of rookie pitchers in 2022 than any other team. The future looks bright on that side of the ball. Can the Reds do the same with their young hitters? If so, better days could lie ahead for a franchise that came dangerously close to alienating its own fan base with their approach last winter.
Colorado Rockies: Can we ever close the home-road gap for good?
This is the eternal question for this franchise. Once again, no team was as disproportionately better at home than on the road as Colorado. It was not even close. The Rockies went 41-40 at home this season. They flashed a run differential at home that translates to a 77-win team over 162 games. Meanwhile, as their road season wound down, the Rockies were on pace to win fewer than a third of their games away from Coors Field. Their road differential was that of a 46-win team over 162 games. This almost unbelievable disparity existed even though prized free agent Kris Bryant didn't hit a single homer at Coors Field all season. The Rockies simply can't compete consistently if this fatal organizational problem cannot be solved.
Detroit Tigers: Is there enough young talent in the cupboard to prevent another full-scale rebuild?
New executive Scott Harris is coming from a franchise -- the Cubs -- that won it all by tearing down to the studs a decade ago. And he's coming from another franchise -- the Giants -- that won 107 games in 2021 without tearing down but by improving its processes and iterating its roster one little move at a time. For Harris, his overarching initial question is whether the Tigers have enough in house in terms of young talent, payroll capacity and productive developmental processes to stave off a full-on reset, one the Detroit fan base might not have much stomach for. For now, Harris has talked as if he plans on improving the big league roster for 2023. Which is great news, but given the way the current rebuild fizzled this season, that approach opens up a whole new set of questions.
Kansas City Royals: With Dayton Moore no longer selling the direction for our franchise, what exactly is going to change?
Five years into a rebuild that has yet to get the Royals close to a return to the playoffs, how is new baseball chief J.J. Picollo going to differentiate himself? The Royals have an impressive base of young talent, much of which already has gotten a good bit of big league experience. The key from here is to turn that collective promise into big league wins. Can Picollo identify options to deepen the roster in a way that augments the young players? Can he fashion a workable bullpen depth chart? And perhaps most important of all, what kind of changes is Picollo likely to make in the club's processes now that he's in charge? That last question might be answered if and when Picollo picks a new general manager (or assistant) to work with him, and whether that person comes from within the organization.
Los Angeles Angels: Is it time to start over?
We have seen the same thing out of the Angels year after year. We tune in to watch Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani and wonder how a team could have two players so good and yet be so consistently mediocre. With the Angels potentially being on the market, now is the time to ask big questions. Is it time to turn Ohtani and Trout into future value via trades, reset everything, and try again? Obviously, the ownership question plays a big part in how this will or should play out, but at some point, you've got to play a different movie because no matter how much charisma your lead actors might have, everyone tires of seeing the same story again and again.
Miami Marlins: Where, oh where, can we find some offense?
The Marlins really deteriorated over the course of the 2022 season. No one will remember this, but well into the first half of the season, there was a scenario in which you could see the pitching of the Marlins being strong enough that if they could hang around the playoff race, they would be in a position to make a trade-deadline splash. If the right impact bat or two were added, perhaps they could nab one of the lower National League seeds. Instead, in the history books this will just look like another miserable Miami season. The offense is terrible. The pitching is deep. How do the Marlins balance this thing out going forward?
Milwaukee Brewers: Is it time for another splash move -- and will David Stearns be around to make it?
Let's take part two of the question first: While the exact parameters of Stearns' deal remain murky, the Brewers' near-miss in the playoff chase means he should be back in 2023. Reportedly, the highly regarded team president could have opted out if the Brewers went on a deep postseason run this season. Instead, they had no run at all. Of course, we don't know whether Stearns wants out of his deal. Either way, he isn't the only key member of the Brewers with a short-term contractual commitment. Ace starters Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff both have two years remaining in their arbitration windows. Milwaukee holds a club option for 2023 on Kolten Wong. Hunter Renfroe is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility. The Brewers should have money to spend to augment this core, unless they somehow lock up some of these players. A short-term splash on an elite hitter who could bolster the Brewers' lackluster run-scoring operation makes a lot of sense. At least to us. If the Brewers see things differently, could some of these key players be moved, a la former Milwaukee closer Josh Hader?
Minnesota Twins: What is the future for Correa?
Is Carlos Correa going to be back next year? The Twins made a splash in the latter stages of the last hot stove season, signing Correa to a three-year, $105.3 million contract. But Correa can opt out of that deal after the season. (And, for that matter, after next season as well.) Correa more or less performed as expected. But will that representative season be good enough for him to forgo the $35 million he knows he would get from Minnesota and hit free agency, or does he want another shot at building up his value even more? The direction of the Twins' offseason will be determined by Correa's decision.
Oakland Athletics: Is this stadium thing going to happen or not?
This franchise has been in limbo so long that Dante could write an epic poem about it. He probably should. Is Oakland going to ever break ground on the Howard Terminal project? Are the A's going to become the Las Vegas Athletics? Are they going to reconstruct Shibe Park, spite fence and all, and go back east to compete with the Phillies in Philadelphia? Whatever the A's are going to do, they need to get it done, because they (and the Rays) are holding up the business of baseball. Fans in places like Nashville, Portland, Montreal, Charlotte and, yes, Las Vegas are tapping their toes impatiently.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Can we be next season's Orioles?
Nothing announces that a rebuild is over more emphatically than actually contending for a playoff spot. No one thought the Orioles were particularly close to doing that before the season, but then Baltimore stayed in the American League playoff race the entire season while ending its streak of losing campaigns. The O's did that with a roster that got progressively younger over the course of the season, didn't cost anything, and was highlighted by impact players who quickly moved from the prospect lists into the ranks of the productive. The Pirates have been collecting young players for a while now, and we've already seen glimpses of some impact raw talent in the play of Oneil Cruz and Ke'Bryan Hayes, just for starters. Is Pittsburgh in position to replicate what the Orioles did? Even if the Pirates believe that, don't expect a splashy offseason, as Baltimore did not spend at all last winter in advance of its special season. Can Pirates fans stomach yet another winter of a passive approach? They'll almost certainly have to.
San Francisco Giants: Is it time to deploy our sleeping massive economic clout?
Many have already made the connection: Aaron Judge, the biggest star in the sport right now, is a pending free agent and a Bay Area native. The Giants are a middling team with enormous resources and scads of payroll space. Of course, it still feels unlikely that Judge will leave the Yankees. If he does, the Giants had better be first in line or their fan base could start to get a little annoyed. The Giants have shown that they can compete with depth, big league development and an iterative model of roster management. That's all well and good. But at some point, the Giants need to flex their financial muscles if they are going to stay relevant in a high-powered division.
Texas Rangers: Will next year be the year we finally turn the corner?
This isn't a plea for speculation but a fundamental question the new Chris Young-led front office must answer honestly when this season concludes. After last winter's heavy payroll investment, and with a minor league system that has been building up over the past few years, it feels like it is time for Texas to field its first contending team in its new ballpark. Assuming that's the conclusion Young and his staff reach, how do they get from here to there? Can they get there from here? With a potentially contention-worthy set of position players mostly already in hand, Young will probably find the answer to his direction-setting question on the pitching side of his organization.
Washington Nationals: What is the timeline for this rebuild?
The Nationals got very young very fast. In doing so, they took a minor league system that was emptied out and have created some depth. They deployed a number of rookies in 2022 and, collectively, they did not play particularly well. With Washington losing yet another franchise cornerstone in the Juan Soto trade, a return to contention feels like a long way off. The team can afford a significant payroll expansion, but is there enough of an identifiable future core to justify the investment? If not, when will there be? And how does the possible sale of the team play into all of this? For a team just three years removed from a championship, this is a franchise with a lot of big questions on the table.