Mookie Betts was on still on the injured list when he initiated the most consequential conversation of the Dodgers' 2022 season, walking up to manager Dave Roberts in the dugout during a June game with a question. "What are you going to do with the lineup?" Betts wanted to know, referring to the arrangement of the top three hitters in the lineup.
The next day, Roberts invited Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman onto the two chairs and the couch in his small office at Dodger Stadium, and he asked for their input. The feedback helped Roberts design what is arguably the most effective 1-2-3 combination for any team -- ever.
This is the thrust of the analytics: With Betts hitting leadoff, Turner in the No. 2 spot and Freeman batting third, the Dodgers have three players who rank in baseball's top 10 in WAR -- and, as Sarah Langs of MLB.com notes, this would be the first time in baseball history that the top three hitters of any particular lineup accomplished that together.
These are the results: In the 65 games since Roberts and the trio settled on the batting order, the Dodgers have averaged 5.8 runs per game and won 75.4% of their games; over a full season, that's a 122-win pace. Betts leads the National League with 110 runs scored; he has 34 homers. Turner has scored 90 runs, hit 20 homers and stolen 24 bases. Freeman leads the majors with 181 hits, 45 doubles and a .329 batting average. He has scored 104 runs (second in the NL).
"It's remarkable to watch," Roberts said over his cellphone the recently, on his trip to the park. "With those three guys, the thing I love about them is that they just love playing the game of baseball; they love competing. In this game, there is so much self-promotion, but with these three guys, it's about doing whatever it takes to win the game. That's something for me as a manager, that filters all the way through the clubhouse."
With the Braves in 2021, Freeman batted second most of the time. Turner often hit third for the Dodgers after he was acquired from Washington in the middle of the '21 season, and at the outset of this season, he hit third, behind Betts and Freeman. When Betts was injured in June, Turner shifted to the leadoff spot, with Freeman hitting second.
"We were playing good, we were winning games, but we felt like we were better than what we were doing," Freeman said. "We were trying to figure out ways to make the 1 through 9 in the lineup better. Obviously, that starts with us three at the top."
With Betts's return imminent when he approached Roberts in the dugout, the ground was fertile for a new discussion on how to best arrange the three All-Stars at the top of the lineup.
This was a question, Roberts felt, that required a conversation with the trio, together. "Because they've earned that right," he said. They talked about re-installing Betts in the lead-off spot, and pushing Turner and Freeman down into the No. 2 and No. 3 spots. "I'm doing alright with guys in scoring position this year," said Freeman -- who was being modest, given that he is hitting .386, and a .483 on-base percentage -- "so we thought, maybe we'll just try to do that. It was a collective agreement, and trying to figure out what was best 1 through 9 for the Dodgers."
Betts mentioned to the three others in the room that he thought of himself as a guy who scored runs -- getting on base, spurring action with his speed, maybe hitting home runs. "Mookie felt his DNA was as a table setter," Roberts recalled.
Turner's self-evaluation was similar; he said to the others he believed he was best suited as a guy who generated runs by getting on base, challenging defenses, pressing pitchers. "Hearing from Trea, he feels good hitting 1 or 2," Roberts said.
Freeman described himself as someone who drives in runs, and felt comfortable hitting in the middle of the order. He was concerned, Roberts recalled, about lineup protection -- having an effective right-handed hitter batting behind him, to discourage opposing managers from constantly bringing in lefties to face Freeman. They talked about the continued evolution of right-handed hitting catcher Will Smith in the cleanup spot; this year, Smith has a .392 on-base percentage and a .451 slugging percentage against lefties.
In this way, Roberts resolved the placement of Betts, Turner and Freeman, who present immediate quandaries for pitchers and catchers. With Turner and Freeman batting behind Betts, pitchers may be more compelled to attack Betts in the strike zone: the rate of first-pitch strikes he is seeing this year -- 62.9% -- is the second-highest of his career. One side effect, though: Betts has already set a career high in home runs. As Roberts noted, veterans who regularly hit in the same spot can be more consistent, knowing what kind of at-bats they can expect from those around them. It may be that with Turner and Freeman behind him, Betts can attack with greater commitment -- and in fact, he is swinging at 69% of the pitches thrown in the zone to him this year, easily the highest rate of his career.
Freeman said, "I'm a huge proponent of, even if it's a curveball on an 0-0 count, or an 0-0 changeup, if it's a strike, I'm going (to swing). Because sometimes, that's the best pitch you're going to get... If you get a strike, go. Trea and I talk about that a lot. It's not being a free swinger; it's about being a swinger in the zone. We've been talking to everybody about that, but Mookie has taken it (to another level). We say, 'Mookie, we don't care if you make an out on the first pitch of the game, if you swing at a strike. Who cares? Be aggressive, and go. Over time, slowly but surely, he's done a lot of that."
Similarly, Turner is swinging at the highest percentage of pitches in the zone that he ever has, 74.4%. He said that given his attack style as the three-hole hitter at the outset of the season, "there was good and bad... With Freddie being a three-hole hitter for a lot of his career, and Mookie being a good on-base guy leading off -- and with Freddie hitting third, and taking his walks, and Mookie getting on base, that gives me a little bit more freedom to swing. I still have to pick and choose my spots when to do that, and they'll walk me every once in a while.
"That conversation helped, in making (the lineup) a little bit more dynamic, a little bit more consistent."
Freeman has had 629 plate appearances this season, and there has been a runner on base 45% of the time, usually Betts and/or Turner. In those at-bats, Freeman is hitting .366, with an OPS of 1.025. At his current pace, Freeman would finish the season with 323 plate appearances with runners on base, the most in his career.
"When you have Mookie Betts and Trea Turner hitting in front of you, good things are usually going to happen," Freeman said, through a chuckle. "Mookie being the MVP like he is. Trea being a consistent guy, having been so under-the-radar for so long, he's not under the radar any more. Since he got called up to the big leagues, I've seen what he can do, and now he's on a national stage doing it. Nothing surprises us with what Trea and everyone is doing in this lineup."
Freeman and Betts have each won MVP awards and seem likely to earn induction into the Hall of Fame. If Turner follows his current trajectory -- he could finish his career with more than 2,000 hits, 250 homers and 400 steals -- he'll be a borderline Hall candidate, at least. But together, these pieces have fit perfectly, in the constant high quality of at-bats, and results, in the first three spots in the order.
As Langs notes, the best teammate trios in lineups have usually been separated. Babe Ruth batted third, Lou Gehrig fourth and Tony Lazzeri sixth. On the 1966 Braves, Felipe Alou led off, Henry Aaron hit third and Joe Torre fourth. On the 1976 Reds, Pete Rose led off, while future Hall of Famers Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench and Tony Perez batted in the No. 3, 4 and 5 spots. In 1979, teammates Willie Wilson, George Brett and Darrell Porter batted first, third and fourth, respectively, and finished that way in the WAR rankings.
But lineups were mostly constructed with a different philosophy in those days, with managers often choosing to use a lighter-hitting player in the No. 2 spot, in order to bunt or advance runners in some other way. There has been change in the managers' collective thinking, of course, to a simple mantra of trying to get the best players the most plate appearances over a single season. Hence, Aaron Judge has mostly batted leadoff or second for the Yankees this year. When Roger Maris clubbed 61 homers in 1961, he batted third most of the season, with Mickey Mantle hitting cleanup.
Roberts' lineup reflects the thinking of this generation. Three great hitters, arranged at the top of the batting order, batting first, second and third -- the best 1-2-3 combination this season, and maybe in all seasons.