Here's what you need to know about the 2022 MLB postseason as the calendar flips to September: The wild-card game is out, the best-of-three wild-card round is in. Tiebreaker games are out, tiebreaker rules are in. Ten playoff teams have been expanded to 12. It's going to be a jam-packed final month in Major League Baseball to determine those playoff spots -- and then some since the regular season doesn't end until Oct. 5. due to the late start after the lockout.
Let's take stock of the six division races and two wild-card battles, ranking them from most to least intriguing. With some tight races unfolding and no Game 163 to break any ties, that means head-to-head records become vital since that's the first tiebreaker.
1. National League East
For those who remember the Mets-Braves rivalry from the Mike Piazza and Chipper Jones days in the late 1990s and early 2000s, this factoid will feel a bit shocking or perhaps just make you feel old: The Mets and Braves haven't finished 1-2 in the NL East since 2000, when the Braves edged out the Mets by one game to win the division. That was also the last time both teams made the postseason in the same season.
Both teams could get to 100 wins, which -- similar to the Giants and Dodgers a year ago -- amplifies the intensity and excitement a bit since we're talking about two excellent teams. While the loser has the fallback position of playing in the best-of-three first round, skipping that round and starting the postseason in the division series should be viewed as an advantage, if only because you can line up your rotation as desired. Consider how the Mets' rotation might play out if they finish second in the NL East and have to play an extra round of games:
Oct. 7, wild card Game 1: Max Scherzer
Oct. 8, wild card Game 2: Jacob deGrom
Oct. 9, wild card Game 3: Chris Bassitt (if necessary)
Division series:
Oct. 11, NLDS Game 1: Bassitt/Taijuan Walker
Oct. 12, NLDS Game 2: Scherzer
Oct. 14, NLDS Game 3: deGrom
Oct. 15, NLDS Game 4: Walker/Bassitt/Carlos Carrasco
Oct. 16: NLDS Game 5: Bassitt/Walker
You can see what happens in the division series. Instead of starting with Scherzer and deGrom (or deGrom and Scherzer) and pitching them three out of a possible five games, the Mets would get them only twice, unless they start on short rest, which is extremely unlikely in this day and age. Furthermore, since the division series is being played over six days instead of seven, it's possible a team might need to use its No. 5 starter and the No. 4 starter might have to start twice if the series goes the distance. Now, both the Mets and Braves have pretty deep rotations, but Atlanta would likewise want to line up Max Fried to start twice in the division series rather than once.
Just throwing this out there: In the three division era (since 1995), there have been just three instances of two teams in the same division winning 100 games:
2021: Giants/Dodgers
2018: Red Sox/Yankees
2001: Mariners/A's
The Red Sox were the one team to reach the World Series (and won it), but it's fair to throw this out there: These two teams could also wear each other down battling down to the wire for the division title. A three-game series at least provides a little more comfort than a one-and-done game like the 106-win Dodgers were forced into last season, but how Buck Showalter and Brian Snitker handle their pitching staffs in September could play a key role on how the teams do in October.
Injury to watch: Carrasco has been on the IL since the middle of August with an oblique strain, but threw a simulated game on Monday and could return this weekend.
Series to watch: Mets at Braves, Sept. 30 to Oct. 2. The teams have one remaining series, in the final week of the season.
Tiebreaker notes: The Mets lead the season series 9-7, so they would only have to take one of the three games to own the tiebreaker.
2. American League Wild Card
Hey, who says the battle for fourth through sixth place can't be fun? It works for the NBA. Anyway, this race is a cut above that for a typical wild card because you basically have six teams fighting for four spots (factoring in the AL Central race) and they all have interesting stories, from the ultra-surprising Orioles to the Mariners trying to end their 21-year playoff drought to the Rays trying to overcome a crushing list of injuries.
Just throwing this out there: Still not believing in the Orioles? Waiting for the rotation to implode and the bullpen to tire out? AL East records since July 3:
Orioles: 33-17
Rays: 30-21
Blue Jays: 26-24
Yankees: 21-31
Red Sox: 20-34
The Orioles have played outstanding baseball for two months now. The schedule is tough, although seven games against the Red Sox may not be as tough as they looked a month ago, plus they have three against the A's, three against the Tigers and two against the Nationals. They can do it.
Injury to watch: The Rays may have just suffered their most important injury yet when Shane McClanahan was scratched from his start on Tuesday with a left shoulder impingement. The Cy Young contender is 11-5 with a 2.20 ERA and leads AL starters in lowest batting average allowed and highest strikeout rate. The Rays are hoping that they'll get Tyler Glasnow back (they just signed him to a two-year extension through 2024), but it's hard to imagine him being much more than an opener-type starter this postseason.
Series to watch: The Rays and Blue Jays have nine games remaining against each other, but those games are packed into just two series: five games in Toronto from Sept. 12-15 (including one doubleheader) and then four games in Tampa from Sept. 22-25. Then we have the Orioles and Blue Jays, who have 10 games left against each other: Sept. 5-7 (including a doubleheader), Sept. 16-18 and then a season-ending series in Baltimore Oct. 3-5. The Blue Jays also have a two-game series in Philadelphia and a three-game series against the Yankees, so that's a tough September schedule.
Tiebreaker notes: OK, since all three wild-card positions remain up for grabs, this could get very, very complicated. After all, we could end up with a five-way tie for three playoff spots -- the three AL East teams, the AL Central runner-up and the Mariners. Let's attack that scenario if we get there. For now, here are the head-to-head records:
Rays vs. Blue Jays: Rays lead 6-4 (nine games left)
Rays vs. Orioles: Rays won 10-9
Rays vs. Guardians: Guardians lead 2-1 (three games left)
Rays vs. Twins: Twins won 4-2
Rays vs. Mariners: Rays won 5-2
Blue Jays vs. Orioles: Orioles lead 6-3 (10 games left)
Blue Jays vs. Guardians: Guardians won 5-2
Blue Jays vs. Twins: Twins won 4-3
Blue Jays vs. Mariners: Mariners won 5-2
(So the Blue Jays currently have NO tiebreakers. How are they here? They've gone 13-3 against the Red Sox.)
Orioles vs. Guardians: Guardians lead 3-2
Orioles vs. Twins: Twins won 4-3
Orioles vs. Mariners: Mariners won 4-2
Guardians vs. Mariners: Mariners lead 3-1 (three games left)
Twins vs. Mariners: Twins won 4-3
3. National League Wild Card
This race is the Phillies, Padres and Brewers fighting for two spots, with the Brewers still holding out hope in the NL Central. The Phillies have been playing well for three months now, going 19-8 in June, 15-10 in July and 17-11 in August and they also just got Bryce Harper back in the lineup late last week. They're hardly a lock, however, with Zack Wheeler on the IL with right forearm tendinitis.
Just throwing this out there: The Padres and Brewers made the big Josh Hader trade at the deadline and you can argue it has backfired for both teams. Hader, after a couple rough outings for the Brewers in July, has suddenly lost all his mojo. He has surrendered 12 runs in 5⅔ innings with the Padres and temporarily lost his job as closer before picking up a save on Wednesday. Juan Soto played his first game for the Padres on Aug. 3, and they're 13-13 since then. Who would have thought the Padres' big trade deadline might turn into a big dud (at least in 2022)?
The Brewers, meanwhile, are just 12-14 since the deal. Devin Williams replaced Hader as closer, and he has three losses and a blown save (a game the Brewers eventually lost) in August. Taylor Rogers, acquired from the Padres, had one ugly loss to the Cardinals, in which he allowed four runs. They aren't the only ones who have struggled in Milwaukee: ace Corbin Burnes had a 5.61 ERA in August (including 12 runs his past two starts).
The good thing for the Brewers: They have just 10 games left against winning teams. The Padres have a small lead now, but the Brewers could still turn this into a bitterly disappointing season for the Padres.
Injury to watch: Wheeler's IL stint was retroactive to Aug. 22 and the Phillies are playing this with extreme caution as general manager Dave Dombrowski told reporters that Wheeler had been willing to pitch through the issue. Still, Wheeler's past two outings -- both against the Mets -- had been a little shaky with 10 runs allowed, and they need a high-performing Wheeler down the stretch (and certainly in October).
Series to watch: The three teams are done playing against each other, so maybe the key will be the Padres' nine remaining games against the Dodgers: Sept. 2-4 (at Los Angeles), Sept. 9-11 (at San Diego) and Sept. 27-29 (also at San Diego). The Padres close with a nine-game homestand against the Dodgers, White Sox and Giants, the Brewers also finish with a nine-game homestand (Cardinals, Marlins, Diamondbacks) while the Phillies close with 10 games on the road (Cubs, Nationals, Astros).
Tiebreaker notes: Phillies over Brewers (4-2) and over Padres (4-3). Padres over Brewers (4-3).
4. American League Central
This hasn't gone as expected. In ESPN's preseason predictions, 34 of 38 voters picked the White Sox to win the division. The other four picked the Twins. Oops. At least the Guardians are showing us that baseball can still be unpredictable.
Just throwing this out there: So nobody expected the Guardians to be here. Even the computer projections weren't all that high on them, with FanGraphs giving the Guardians just a meager 7.5% chance to win the division. But with the White Sox struggling and injured, the Guardians have taken advantage. Jose Ramirez would be an MVP candidate in many seasons and Andres Gimenez has become one of the game's bright young stars.
Here's why Cleveland can hold on: Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase. Good luck rallying to beat the Guardians in the late innings against that trio. Clase has just two blown saves -- and one of those was a ghost runner scoring in extra innings. They also have more bullpen depth behind those three, which is why they're 9-3 in extra-inning games.
Injury to watch: The Twins have a couple big ones to note. Byron Buxton has been out since Aug. 22 with a hip strain and will remain in Minnesota as the team leaves Friday for a road trip to Chicago and New York, so his return doesn't look imminent. As always, his production has been all over the place anyway -- 1.069 OPS in April, 1.068 in June, but two months hitting under .200 -- so who knows what to expect when he returns. Tyler Mahle, acquired from the Reds at the trade deadline, has been out with shoulder inflammation but has been throwing bullpen sessions.
Series to watch: The Guardians and Twins have two series remaining: Sept. 9-11 at Minnesota and then five games in Cleveland Sept. 16-19 (including a doubleheader).
Tiebreaker notes: OK, OK, we'll throw in the White Sox here:
Guardians lead Twins 6-5 (eight games left)
Guardians lead White Sox 9-6 (four games left)
Twins lead White Sox 6-4 (nine games left)
5. American League East
We know the story here: The Yankees were on an all-time record win pace for the first half of the season. On July 8, they were 61-23 -- a pace of 118 wins -- and led the division by 15.5 games. There was talk comparing them to the 1998 Yankees. Not so fast, my friends. The Yankees have been bad since then. The division still feels fairly safe, but they're going to have to grind through September to hold on.
Just throwing this out there: Yes, the Yankees offense has been struggling in August, hitting .220 with a .649 OPS. They hit 58 home runs in June and 50 in July -- and just 28 in August. They've still scored 52 more runs than any other AL team. Aaron Judge does feel like a one-man show and they've missed Matt Carpenter, but the bigger point here: The Yankees were a good offensive team for four months and a bad one for one month. And it's not like any of the other AL teams are racking up runs either. No, I don't feel completely confident in the offense bouncing back, but I think the bigger concern is getting better work from a rotation that pitched out of its mind for three months and has predictably regressed.
Injury to watch: How bad does that Jordan Montgomery trade look now? Luis Severino was already on the IL at the time of the trade and is still expected back in mid-September, but now Nestor Cortes has joined him on the injured list with a groin injury. He'll be back soon and maybe the injury was even a blessing in disguise, giving him a chance to rest for a couple weeks since he's already pitched a career high 131 innings.
Series to watch: The Yankees visit the Rays this weekend and then host them next weekend -- six games in 10 days. If the Rays win five of those, the pressure really begins to mount on the Yankees.
Tiebreaker notes: Just in case ...
Yankees lead the Rays 8-5 (six games left)
Yankees lead the Blue Jays 9-7 (three games left)
Yankees lead the Orioles 11-5 (three games left)
6. National League Central
The Cardinals were four games down to the Brewers on July 30 and six games up on Aug. 30. Some quick math tells us that's a 10-game swing in a month. Of course, Albert Pujols has been one of the big keys, along with Paul Goldschmidt continuing to play at an MVP level as he has all season. This one feels like it's over, although I guess we should know better than to assume that.
Just throwing this out there: Everyone crowned the Padres as the winners of the trade deadline, but it now appears like John Mozeliak should take top honors with his acquisitions of Montgomery and Jose Quintana. The Cardinals needed starting pitching and Mozeliak got the two lefties without giving up any of the farm's prized prospects. They've gone 5-0 in games Montgomery has started and 4-1 in games Quintana started.
Injury to watch: Jack Flaherty has completed his rehab from a shoulder strain and will start for the Cardinals on Labor Day. Given his lack of innings this season (just eight at the major league level), he's obviously a huge wild card as it has been three years now since Flaherty went on an amazing run in the second half of 2019, but he'll certainly get a chance to pitch himself into the playoff rotation.
Series to watch: The Cardinals and Brewers have four games remaining split over a couple of two-game series -- Sept. 13-14 in St. Louis and Sept. 27-28 in Milwaukee.
Tiebreaker notes: Cardinals are up 8-7.
7. American League West
The Astros have been at least 10 games up every day except one since June 24. They could be headed to their fourth 100-win season since 2017. In other words, this race is over.
Just throwing this out there: The biggest issue for the Astros over the final month: Determining how the postseason rotation will line up. Assuming Justin Verlander's IL stint is a short one, he and Framber Valdez line up 1-2 in some order and Lance McCullers Jr. might slot in as the No. 3 guy with a strong finish. Then you have Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier fighting it out. Javier has the best numbers of that trio, but could also be a huge weapon out of the bullpen.
Injury to watch: Verlander injured his calf covering first base on Sunday. He leads the majors with a 1.84 ERA and had been 8-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his 10 starts before Sunday's shortened outing.
Series to watch: Well, they're done playing the Mariners anyway, so the Astros' biggest series will be the two they have against Tampa Bay and a season-ending one against Philadelphia that could be big for the Phillies -- and perhaps big for the Astros to lock up the top seed in the AL.
Tiebreaker notes: In case it is a tie with the Yankees for best record, the Astros won the season series 5-2.
8. National League West
On June 17, the Dodgers were a respectable 39-24 -- and a half-game behind the Padres. Since then, they've gone 51-15, including back-to-back months of 21-5 and 22-6. They left the Padres in a Pig-Pen-worthy cloud of dust.
Just throwing this out there: And yet ... somehow, despite one of the best two-month runs in history, there are actual questions heading into October. Tony Gonsolin and his dazzling 16-1 record just landed on the IL with a forearm strain. Clayton Kershaw finally returns tonight against the Mets. Let's see how he looks. Is Craig Kimbrel going to be the ninth-inning guy? What will Dustin May's role be in October? Will Joey Gallo earn a key role for the postseason? That's aside from the high expectations the team will face. They're going to go down as one of the great regular-season teams of all time -- but it's winning the World Series that earns a team a place in history.
Injury to watch: Gonsolin is expected to miss just two starts, so for now it doesn't appear to be anything serious and the Dodgers are probably happy to let him rest for a couple weeks anyway.
Series to watch: Those nine games against the Padres will certainly be huge for San Diego. The Dodgers also have a three-game series against the Cardinals. But that's it for big games against other potential playoff teams the rest of the way (other than the series finale against the Mets).
Tiebreaker notes: The Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers franchise has seven World Series titles. The New York/San Francisco Giants franchise has eight World Series titles.