The New York Mets' dream start to 2022 has suddenly hit a rough patch.
Max Scherzer has hit the injured list for an estimated six-to-eight weeks due to an oblique strain. He joins ace Jacob deGrom, who has been out since the end of spring training due to a stress reaction in his right scapula. Tylor Megill also landed on the IL last week with biceps tendinitis following a rough outing against the Nationals, in which he allowed eight runs in 1.1 innings.
You can't blame Mets fans for thinking, "Here we go again," as the franchise has been cursed in recent years with all sorts of maladies -- some of them self-inflicted, some of them bad luck.
DeGrom made his last start of 2021 on July 7, at which point the Mets were 46-38 and 4.5 games up in the NL East. They would go 31-47 the rest of the way, see only two starting pitchers make more than 18 starts, and end up under .500 at 77-85.
So now they have to get by without their two aces, plus Megill, who had initially replaced deGrom in the rotation and pitched well until that last outing. Even if Megill is only out a short time, the Mets have holes to fill in the rotation. They also face a road trip this weekend to Colorado, where -- no kidding -- snow is in the forecast, setting up the potential for cancellations and/or doubleheaders that might further mess up the rotation.
For now, the Mets will stick with internal options to go alongside Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco: David Peterson and Trevor Williams.
Peterson has already made four appearances and three starts with the Mets in 2022 and pitched well enough, going 1-0 with a 1.89 and 3.36 FIP. He's shown some positives in two previous stints in the majors in 2020 and 2021, but he's been a little too wild for a lefty with an average fastball, walking 4.1 batters per nine innings over his career.
At 6-foot-6, Peterson does create a different look and the former first-round pick has the stuff to succeed. As rotation depth, he's a pretty good option to have on deck.
Williams took Megill's place in the rotation and tossed four scoreless innings against the Cardinals on Tuesday. The veteran right-hander has plenty of starting experience in the majors, with 111 career starts.
After some initial success with the Pirates in 2017 and 2018 (including a dominant run in the second half of 2018 when he posted a 1.29 ERA over 13 starts), Williams hasn't been able to replicate that level of pitching. He has a five-pitch repertoire with below-average fastball velocity (91.4 mph this season).
Again, if this is your No. 8 starter, that's more depth than most teams have.
The Mets probably won't expect Williams to be much more than a five-and-dive guy, and the same goes for Peterson, so that means Buck Showalter will need more innings from his bullpen. Showalter has done a great job with the pen, especially in limiting back-to-back appearances.
Entering Thursday's games, the Mets had a reliever throw on zero days of rest just 12 times, with only three teams (each with 11) having fewer. Given that Scherzer had pitched at least six innings in six of his eight starts (he left on Wednesday after 5.2 innings), that's going to be some extra work every fifth day from the pen. And that's before even considering potential bad outings where Peterson or Williams get knocked out early. This is the ripple effect of losing an ace like Scherzer that you can't quantify in WAR: The bullpen will be worked a little harder.
As far as other options:
Long-time big leaguer Trevor Cahill was signed to a minor league deal last weekend, so he's in the process of being stretched out (he's yet to pitch). Cahill made eight starts with the Pirates in 2021 and posted a 6.57 ERA/4.06 FIP.
Joey Lucchesi is on the 40-man roster, but he's recovering from last year's Tommy John surgery.
Lefty Thomas Szapucki made his major league debut last season with one appearance and would be the deep internal option. The 25-year-old is starting at Triple-A Syracuse, but has seen a limited pitch count, with just 21 innings stretched across six starts. He did, however, get up to five innings and 70 pitches in his last outing.
Then there is the potential trade market -- which becomes more of a possibility if the Mets stumble over the next few weeks or if the long-term prognosis for deGrom or Scherzer changes (or if yet another starter goes down).
The prime target here would certainly be the Cincinnati Reds with Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo. The Boston Red Sox have stumbled out of the gate and, along with the New York Yankees' hot start, have already dug themselves such a big hole in the AL East that they could end up dealing away veterans -- although you would think they would want to wait into July to see if they can get hot. Nick Pivetta, who just threw a complete game for a win on Wednesday, would be an intriguing option, as he still has two more seasons of team control. Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill are both free agents after 2022.
The Mets' farm system has been thinned out the past couple of years with various trades, so they need to be careful about hemorrhaging too much of their future.
But this is a good team, with good momentum and, for now, the depth to survive without two months of Scherzer. No need to panic and make an ill-advised move ... at least, not yet.