Now that 2020 is (finally) behind us, baseball is entering a new year with uncertainty the only certainty across the sport, so we asked our team of MLB experts to each identify and lay out one storyline that will most define 2021 along with something they can't wait to see as things hopefully begin to return to some normalcy throughout the months ahead.
When will the season actually begin, and how many games will we actually see? How will the upcoming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement impact the season ahead? Which superstars will be on the move next? And which teams will dominate when the games do begin? Only time will tell, but here's what we're watching closest in 2021.
The biggest storylines of 2021
Uncertainty
Between the CBA, the pandemic and the all-over-the-place financial state of the sport, uncertainty is what will define the season. Nobody is quite sure what the financial state of the game is going to look like as the entire sports industry continues to feel the ramifications of COVID-19 and not having full revenue from fans in the stands (including concessions and merchandising).
Given the state of the CBA, this may be the last glimpse of baseball we get before a lockout happens as well. Given that the game is in the midst of a boom of exciting young talent, especially for rising teams like the San Diego Padres and Chicago White Sox, it would be a shame for a pending lockout to hamper the enthusiasm around the game's youth because the owners and players can't arrive at an agreement to secure the game's future. -- Joon Lee
The labor situation will define baseball in 2021 ... and beyond
The relationship between the Players Association and Major League Baseball is the worst it has been in the past 30 years, and at a time when the sport desperately needs collaboration and cooperation, what it has is the two sides entrenched and increasingly bitter about how the other side conducts its business.
When you talk to people around the sport on background, they readily identify some of the middle ground that the owners and players need to get to -- but as we sit here today, it's hard to identify those people who might be the proactive agents of necessary change. What happened last May and June, as the two sides hashed out a 60-game season, was ugly for the game, but there is a chance that the situation is actually worse in February, March and April, because the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement looms at the end of this year.
Baseball fans have to hope that nobody goes with the nuclear option in an effort to win this labor war and shuts the game down for a very extended period. -- Buster Olney
The competitiveness of teams -- or, in too many cases, the lack thereof
This is the throughline for baseball in 2021. It's why the new year came without J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, Trevor Bauer or DJ LeMahieu signed -- and what will ultimately be the primary impetus behind the teams that do welcome them aboard. It's the question that will define the regular season -- and either support the aggressiveness of teams that did build better teams on paper in hopes of a championship or offer another reason for teams to remain indifferent in their pursuit of talent. And it's an issue that again will surface as MLB and the players try to hammer out a new collective-bargaining agreement to replace the one that expires Dec. 1. -- Jeff Passan
The interplay of two things: the coronavirus and the CBA that expires in December
The CBA and economic health of the league will be an easier problem to solve if stadiums are at least half-full again by the end of the 2021 season. If that's still in question for Opening Day 2022 and the owners now have two seasons of losses as baggage to carry into negotiations, we'll get another offseason full of talking heads focusing on how tone-deaf the owners are and how the game is dying. And if stadiums are close to full at some point in the 2021 season, we'll still hear it, but a lot less. Not to mention that things will be much better for everyone associated with the sport. -- Kiley McDaniel
A full season?
I am not hopeful, but am openly rooting for, 162 games in 2021. If it happens, the rest is easy.
We have played that number of games in every full season starting in 1961. It is an odd yet an important number because in a 162-game season, a rhythm is established. Any such season has mileposts, starting with Opening Day, often April 1, meaning March 31 is the last worthless evening that we have to spend. It might not seem like it, but every day matters in a 162-game season, games on May 5 have their own unique value. Then there is Memorial Day, when we break out the gratuitous, "those teams leading their division on Memorial Day go on to win X percent of the time.'' There is the All-Star break, a tradition that began in 1933. There are the dog days of August and the stretch run in September, but that matters so much more when teams have played 132 games by then. And then there is October, which is made even better when the 10 teams that made it that far all had a winning record, and all felt like they somehow survived the attrition of 162 games. In 162, we don't have to resort to gimmicks to liven up a game that has been played so beautifully for 150 years.
In 162, we don't need to place a runner at second to start the 10th inning of a tie game, we don't need to play seven-inning doubleheaders and we don't need to add six more teams to the playoffs to generate interest. Sparky Anderson used to say, "We play 162 games for a reason, there are no excuses after that many games. No team can say it ran out of time.'' There's trust in 162. Play 162 -- the game always does the rest. -- Tim Kurkjian
Baseball at a crossroads
One hundred years ago, baseball was at a crossroads in the aftermath of the Black Sox scandal, which fully exploded as a story in the summer of 1920. But the primary offenders were dispatched and then Babe Ruth built upon his unfathomable exploits of 1920 to record what may still be the greatest individual season a player has ever had, as the nation launched into the Jazz Age and baseball surfed right along with it.
Now, some societal analysts are predicting a resurgence of excess and enthusiasm in a 21st century version of the Roaring Twenties, once the pandemic dies out and things hopefully progress to a new and satisfactory normal. Assuming that America's vaccination effort can build exponentially over the months to come, by simple timing it might happen that baseball is granted center stage in the sports world just as we are fully embarking on our hoped-for return to widespread, quasi-normalcy.
Yet between austerity-induced transactional paralysis, labor-related squabbling, ill-focused rules experimentation, eroding on-field aesthetics and MLB's strong-arming of the minor leagues, it is far from certain that baseball is well positioned to take advantage of the happier days to come. For me, the intersection of all these building concerns marks this as the season of the crossroads, and I have my fingers crossed that everyone connected to the sport can collectively choose the right path. -- Bradford Doolittle
Big names on the move
The trend began last year but 2021 will be defined, in part, by trades involving star players due to a combination of teams' financial issues and inability to sign them.
Mookie Betts was traded. So was Mike Clevinger, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Who's next? Our hot stove poll of executives showed they believe Francisco Lindor won't be in Cleveland much longer, and trade rumors involving Kris Bryant of the Cubs have been rampant for so long that the bigger surprise would be if he's not moved.
With the free-agent class for shortstops next offseason, including several other stars besides Lindor, he may not be the only middle infielder on another team at some point. No one is predicting Trevor Story, Javier Baez and Carlos Correa will all be traded, but would that be more surprising than all signing long-term deals with their current organizations over the next 12 months?
Add one more layer to the trade market: With expectations that many current free agents will be signing one-year deals, there's a good chance the July trading season will be extra busy, too.
It's always best for the game when a team can keep a homegrown star, but some of those players will undoubtedly be on the move in 2021. -- Jesse Rogers
The next great rivalry
This is shaping up as baseball's new holy war, much like the Yankees and Red Sox battled from the late '90s and deep into the next decade with a heated intensity among both players and fans. The Padres have gone 51 years without a World Series title since they joined the majors in 1969 -- although not quite as long as the 86 years the Red Sox went between titles -- but in adding Yu Darvish and Blake Snell to a loaded lineup, they now have a team capable of challenging the Dodgers. The teams met in the playoffs in 2020, so consider that the first year of what should be a great rivalry for at least several years to come. -- David Schoenfield
The state of analytics
Aside from the only-in-2020 scene of Justin Turner's positive COVID-19 test and return to the field during the Dodgers' title celebration, the one image we'll all remember forever from the 2020 World Series is that moment when Kevin Cash headed to the mound to remove Blake Snell 73 pitches into a dominant World Series start. Not Mookie Betts' five-tool superstar display throughout the entire postseason. Not Brett Phillips delivering one of the most improbable and exciting game-winning hits imaginable. Not Randy Arozarena turning into Hank Aaron for a month. Not even Clayton Kershaw finally slaying that October dragon once and for all.
And that sums up exactly where the sport is right now.
In one sense, the players have never been better. One hundred mph fastballs have become routine. Entire Twitter accounts exist thanks to the movement on the breaking balls that look practically unhittable -- but a generation of young sluggers do manage to hit those pitches, a long, long ways, and players like Fernando Tatis Jr., Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuna (and I could go on and on) give us a nightly dose of five-tool talent and are a joy to watch. But at the same time, numbers-first front offices have taken control in a way that has polarized the sport because, as the Dodgers and Rays being the final two teams standing last year demonstrates, analytics can win you baseball games -- but can also make baseball less aesthetically appealing.
The Snell decision brought something that has been brewing in baseball for a while now to a head, and now 2021 sets up to be a tipping point as baseball must find the balance between showcasing players and utilizing analytics. -- Dan Mullen
What we're most excited to see in 2021
A full season, with fans and everything else we love
I'm excited for a real season. In no way should anyone diminish the 2020 season; under the circumstances, it's a marvel, a testament to the players and league that they could work together to pull off 60 games and a full postseason under such circumstances. At the same time, I love 162 games. I love watching someone take a .400 batting average into June. I love seeing pitchers chase 300 strikeouts. I love every Juan Soto at-bat, every Fernando Tatis Jr. adventure on the basepaths, every Tyler Glasnow curveball. And the more baseball that's played, the more of everything we get. -- Jeff Passan
The thing I missed most last season was just the day-to-day ritual of ballpark life, and I am most excited to see everyone who actually does the work in staging a professional baseball game. They take tickets and lug the beer and run the elevator up to the press box and sell the souvenirs and so much more. In the baseball world, they lost as much as anyone. The return of all those who bring a ballpark to life will signify so much. When they are back at the park, that means fans will be back, and as far as I am concerned, that's when baseball will truly be back. The noise of that first big crowd -- an actual organic, human-generated roar -- will make for some sweet music. -- Bradford Doolittle
It's not just the idea of fans being back in the stands, along with the energy they bring, I'm looking forward to. It's the actual sounds they make when they're in the ballpark. The oohs and ahhs, and yes, even the boos, were missed as much as the normal cheering and clapping.
Most unusual were the times when the ball was up in the air and there was nothing to tell you where it might land before it did. In every game before 2020, a high fly ball to left field usually was accompanied by a rising crescendo of sound before ending in a roar or a distinct groan.
The unusual quietness surrounding any big play felt creepy for those of us privileged enough to be there. Other than some dugout excitement, there were simply no sounds in the stadium to indicate what was happening on the playing field. Fake crowd noise never cut it and should never have been used. It's true, the crack of the bat could be heard more often without fans in the stands but nothing can replace the roar of the crowd. What 2020 reminded us is the sounds of baseball also include what's happening a few feet from the playing field. They tell us what's happening even when our head is turned or we're taking a bite of a hot dog. The authentic noises of the game were greatly missed. -- Jesse Rogers
The Padres
There's a number of reasons for this. Firstly, they're a good, fun, young team. Secondly, ownership and management chose to go for it in a time when almost every other club is being overly cautious. This could end up being a short-to-medium-term referendum on the best way to win in an uncertain economic environment. I want the correct answer to be "go for it," because that also would be better for basically everyone associated with the sport. MLB/owners pushing for expanded playoffs in 2021 and in the next CBA seem content with less action as a way to lower costs. -- Kiley McDaniel
I can't wait to watch the Padres in 2021. We root for no team, no players -- we root for good stories. The Padres have been to the World Series twice since their inception in 1969; they have never won it, but general manager A.J. Preller isn't waiting any longer. He acquired, at a hefty price, left-hander Blake Snell from the Rays, and in the 2021 postseason, the hope is he will be allowed to be great, to be an ace -- not someone to yank after 73 pitches. Preller acquired right-hander Yu Darvish from the Cubs, and despite giving up more young talent, the move gives the Padres one of the best rotations in the game. Combine that with a terrific everyday lineup, and the Padres are the game's most exciting team.
Such aggressiveness surprises no one who knows Preller. I have known him since he was with the Rangers, working his way to the top. He never sleeps. He is relentless. He has to win, whatever the game. I learned that playing basketball with him, usually in spring training in Arizona. During the Rangers-Cardinals World Series in 2011, we found a dinky little gym in St. Louis before one of the World Series games. We could only find four guys to play hoops, so we played two-on-two, pretty tame stuff. Preller's team won the first four games to 11 because he was a nightmare to guard, lightning quick off the dribble, could finish at the rim and could shoot from deep. Our team was on the verge of winning the fifth and final game; three of us were tired, and no one was waiting to play next. It wasn't that important to us to win. But it was to him. Preller brought his team back to win 11-10.
He had to win. And he will not rest until the Padres win the World Series. -- Tim Kurkjian
Young superstars
I can't wait to see the continued rise of the game's next generation. The arrival of Fernando Tatis Jr. accelerated the continued cultural shift the game has seen in regard to the unwritten rules, as celebrations and flashy fashion and cleats continue to make a deeper mark into the game's future, something that will be important in helping the next generation of casual baseball fan. Others like Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts continue to push forward the line in which players can feel free to express themselves, and as we see their continued rise in prominence, baseball figures to see a massively different cultural landscape when we introduce the next generation of stars over the next decade. -- Joon Lee
Juan Soto. As a 21-year-old in 2020, he hit .351/.490/.695, for an adjusted OPS of 212. OK, it was just 47 games, so we can't really compare it to full seasons of 500 plate appearances, but only eight players have ever posted a higher single-season OPS+. Four of those did it in the years before integration (Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig and Ted Williams). Two of them come with a PED asterisk: Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire. Jeff Bagwell did it in the strike-shortened 1994 season (he played 110 games). Williams and Mickey Mantle both did it in 1957. In other words, it's a short list. If Soto can put up those same numbers over a normal season, we may be getting confirmation that we're looking at one of the greatest hitters of all time. -- David Schoenfield
Who lands Lindor?
I don't know where Francisco Lindor is going to land, but I'm excited to see how he responds in his next home. Will he be the centerpiece of the up-and-coming Toronto Blue Jays, emerging as the leader of a club that might challenge the Yankees for AL East supremacy? Will he represent hope for the New York Mets, with his exciting style and genial personality playing well in the big market? Will the Yankees swoop in to make a deal and revel as the switch-hitter takes aim at the right-field stands at Yankee Stadium? Will some other team jump in -- the Giants, the Dodgers, the Phillies? One of the best players in baseball will be on the move in the months ahead. -- Buster Olney
The National League elite
I went back and forth between "the Dodgers vs. the World Series hangover" and "the new-look Mets," so I'm going to take the easy way out and say the top of the National League as a whole. For everything else that happened last year, the simple truth was that the Dodgers at their best were better than anyone else at their best. The Braves almost managed to take down L.A. in the NLCS with one of the game's most exciting lineups. The Padres are both swaggy and really, really good. And then there's the Mets.
We don't know exactly what New York will look like on Opening Day because that winter splash we're all waiting for hasn't happened yet. But I can't wait to see if the actual 2021 version of the team can join L.A., Atlanta and San Diego in that top tier with, say, George Springer and Trevor Story/Francisco Lindor in the lineup, or if all of the Steve Cohen buzz takes a little longer to turn into a winner than those in Queens are hoping. -- Dan Mullen