As we start to close the books on the 2020 baseball season, the next order of business was handled Monday, when the nominees for this year's Baseball Writers' Association of America postseason awards were announced during a broadcast on MLB Network.
There were a couple of mild surprises from the announcement, but nothing earth-shattering. That gentle observation should hold true as the winners are announced over the weeks to come, simply because the nominees are all consideration-worthy and none of the potential winners would shame the awards for which they were nominated.
To critique the voting efforts of my BBWAA brethren, I will break out my trusty Awards Index system. The method is laid out here, but the short version is that I calculate a consensus rating for each player's season based on the leading bottom-line value metrics (bWAR, fWAR and win shares) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added).
The resulting metric is called AXE (Awards indeX Estimate) and is expressed as an integer that translates how many standard deviations a player's performances was above (or below) a league-average player.
Let's jump into the nominees, the AXE leaderboard relevant to each category, my analysis of the balloting result and my picks to win. Two disclosures: I am a BBWAA member but did not cast a vote for any of this year's awards.
American League MVP nominees
• Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox
• DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees
• Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
AL Top 10 Awards Index Ratings
1. Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians (151)
2. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians (140)
3. José Abreu, Chicago White Sox (138)
4. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays (135)
5. Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays (134)
6. DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees (132)
7. Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels (131)
8. Dallas Keuchel, Chicago White Sox (130)
9. Lance Lynn, Texas Rangers (129)
10. (tie) Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (128)
10. (tie) Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins (128)
I'm including pitchers in the MVP leaderboards and am of the belief that if a pitcher can generate enough value in his appearances to rate with the league's top hitters, he should be considered for MVP. I'm not sure I am as on board with that belief this season because of the 60-game schedule.
While I don't love the small sample size for everyday players in 2020, I certainly don't love it for pitchers and I'm just not sure that a two-month season provided hot pitchers such as Bieber with enough of a proving ground to really dictate MVP consideration. If those AXE ratings were based on a normal schedule, I think Bieber would have a heck of an argument.
If we confine our consideration to position players, there's nothing to quibble with from the list of nominees. Ramirez and Abreu are probably the front-runners. Lowe and LeMahieu were close enough that you can't really begrudge one or the other getting the third nomination spot. As different as the two AL East second basemen are in terms of offensive style, what really brings them close together at the bottom line is more of an agreement in defensive contribution for Lowe than there is for LeMahieu. Me, I'd rather have LeMahieu's remarkable offensive consistency and take my chances with the glove.
Of the three nominees, it's really a statistical toss-up. They were the three best hitters in the AL this season and the reason that Trout isn't a front-runner this time around. I'll give the nod to Abreu for serving as the linchpin of the White Sox emergence.
My pick: Abreu
National League MVP nominees
• Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
• Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
NL Top 10 Awards Index Ratings
1. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves (147)
2. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (145)
3. Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs (144)
4. Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco Giants (140)
5. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (138)
6. Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds (138)
7. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (136)
8. Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves (135)
9. (tie) Manny Machado, San Diego Padres (135)
9. (tie) Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres (135)
Machado getting the nod over Yastrzemski and Tatis is probably my biggest quibble. It really doesn't matter because this is a two-player race between Betts and Freeman. It's a great debate, one that might be tipped by narrative.
Not that Betts has a bad narrative. He was traded away from the only organization he'd known just before spring training to a team so good that you wondered just how much impact he could possibly have. And he had a tremendous impact. The way I describe it is that after Betts joined that lineup in the leadoff spot, the Dodgers suddenly just made more sense.
Freeman is the cornerstone of the Atlanta franchise, and given that he started the season still recovering from a COVID-19 infection, went on to play all 60 games while putting up his best-ever percentage stats, it's a compelling case. He outhit Betts, and while Freeman is a decent defender and a good baserunner for his size, he pales in those categories to Betts. Almost everyone does.
Ultimately, it comes down to a team-context tiebreaker. The Braves had a stacked lineup, but without Freeman it would not have been elite. It's hard to make the same argument about Betts. Freeman scored higher in the contextual categories, with an AXE score in that area (141) that was outclassed only by Yaz in the senior circuit.
My pick: Freeman
AL Cy Young nominees
• Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
• Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins
• Hyun-Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays
AL Top 10 Pitcher Awards Index Ratings
1. Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians (151)
2. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays (135)
3. Dallas Keuchel, Chicago White Sox (130)
4. Lance Lynn, Texas Rangers (129)
5. Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins (128)
6. (tie) Zach Plesac, Cleveland Indians (126)
6. (tie) Dylan Bundy, Los Angeles Angels (126)
6. (tie) Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners (126)
9. (tie) Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (125)
9. (tie) Liam Hendriks, Oakland Athletics (125)
Again, I liked Lynn or Keuchel more than Maeda, but it's too close to get worked up about. Ryu is a solid second. But this has been Bieber's award since the season began. Literally -- starting on Opening Day for the franchise that once featured Bob Feller, Bieber set a franchise record for strikeouts in an Opening Day start. He never looked back.
My pick: Bieber
NL Cy Young nominees
• Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds
• Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs
• Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
NL Top 10 Pitcher Awards Index Ratings
1. Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs (144)
2. Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds (138)
3. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (136)
4. Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres (135)
5. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (134)
6. Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers (132)
7. Max Fried, Atlanta Braves (131)
8. Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs (130)
9. Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (129)
10. Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers (128)
Good job, voters. Alas, the nominations in this category were the easy part. Picking a winner is not so easy.
What categories do you value most? Darvish wins in FIP, innings and win probability added. He also wins in wins. Bauer gets ERA and, even though he pitched for a team with a bad defense, he yielded by far the lowest average on balls in play. DeGrom gets strikeout rate and general dominance.
It feels like a contest between Darvish and Bauer. For me, Darvish just checks more boxes. It's an awfully tough choice.
My pick: Darvish
AL Rookie of the Year nominees
• Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
• Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners
• Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox
AL Top 10 Rookie Awards Index Ratings
1. Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners (119)
2. (tie) Justus Sheffield, Seattle Mariners (116)
2. (tie) Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox (116)
4. Sean Murphy, Oakland Athletics (114)
5. Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals (113)
6. (tie) Cristian Javier, Houston Astros (112)
6. (tie) James Karinchak, Cleveland Indians (112)
8. (tie) Jared Walsh, Los Angeles Angels (111)
8. (tie) Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays (111)
10. (tie) Willi Castro, Detroit Tigers (110)
10. (tie) Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox (110)
10. (tie) Codi Heuer, Chicago White Sox (110)
Robert's poor finish should swing this award heavily into Lewis' favor, though Robert's edge in defensive metrics kept it close. For all his raw power, Robert's inability to make consistent contact meant that he ended up with a slightly lower slugging percentage than Lewis (.437 to .436), while the latter held marked edges in hitting and on-base percentage.
I felt Javier's impressive ERA (3.48) was a bit of a mirage, as his FIP was 4.94. Sheffield (3.17 FIP) was better and I thought he would have made a more suitable nominee. Nevertheless, Sheffield's teammate -- Lewis -- should keep the award in Seattle.
My pick: Lewis
NL Rookie of the Year nominees
• Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
• Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres
• Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
NL Top 10 Rookie Awards Index Ratings
1. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates (124)
2. Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers (122)
3. Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers (121)
4. Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies (118)
5. Sixto Sanchez, Miami Marlins (116)
6. (tie) Ian Anderson, Atlanta Braves (115)
6. (tie) Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres (115)
8. David Peterson, New York Mets (113)
9. (tie) Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers (112)
9. (tie) Kwang-Hyun Kim, St. Louis Cardinals (112)
Hayes didn't get enough time at the big league level to merit award consideration. But, man, did he get after it while he was in the majors. Over 95 plate appearances, Hayes hit .376/.442/.682. And defense at third base is supposed to his strong point.
Cronenworth faded badly down the stretch, hitting .183 in September. It's fair to wonder how much that should work against him, as his presence early in the season helped San Diego work through some early injuries and emerge as the NL's breakout team.
Still, I like Bohm over Cronenworth. He ended up with a similar number of plate appearances (192 for Cronenworth to 180 for Bohm) and hit .338/.400/.481 during that time. He's a bit stiff at third base, but his contextual AXE (135) underscores how many big hits he had. Bohm was a big reason the underachieving Phillies mounted a run at a playoff slot.
And, still, Williams might have been the best reliever in the major leagues this season. The only things the Brewers really had working for them in 2020 were Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes in the rotation, and Williams and Josh Hader in the bullpen. It's doubtful that Milwaukee would have squeezed into the postseason without any of those players.
Before making my pick here, I'll again note that I'm not considering Hayes because of playing time. However, Gonsolin is a bona fide snub. He's been bouncing around a bit, so maybe voters didn't realize he was still a rookie.
My pick: Williams
AL Manager of the Year nominees
• Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays
• Charlie Montoyo, Toronto Blue Jays
• Rick Renteria, Chicago White Sox
AL Manager EARL Leaders
1. Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays (EARL: 14.6)
2. Scott Servais, Seattle Mariners (EARL: 9.2)
3. Charlie Montoyo, Toronto Blue Jays (EARL: 7.7)
4. Bob Melvin, Oakland Athletics (EARL: 4.4)
5. Rick Renteria, Chicago White Sox (EARL: 2.6)
I don't want to overhype the EARL metric, as it's just a thing I put together to help organize my thoughts about managerial performance each season. It looks at how a team does versus its forecast, and how many games it wins as compared to what you'd expect from its run differential. Most of the time, it lines up pretty well with Manager of the Year voting, but I'm not sure it measures managerial performance so much as it does the perceptions that underscore the dynamics of this process.
Renteria was No. 5 in AL EARL, so his inclusion isn't a huge shock, and given the White Sox's breakout status this year, you can understand the support he received. There really isn't much separating what he did in Chicago and what Montoyo did for the Blue Jays, except the latter had the added factor of overseeing his displaced club playing its home games in Buffalo.
Also: Did anyone else notice that the rebuilding Mariners weren't that bad this year and remained competitive all season even though they were the biggest seller at the trade deadline? Servais should get some credit for that. If the M's break out next year, maybe he'll get some of the love that went to Renteria and Montoyo this season.
Still, for me, Cash is the guy and is one of the five best managers in baseball right now. The Rays were forecast to be good -- as in 89 wins. They won 98 (after prorating their record over 162 games). Most impressively, though, was the Rays' historic record in close games. Tampa Bay went 23-10 in games decided by one or two runs this season and kept that going all the way until the sixth game of the World Series.
My pick: Cash
NL Manager of the Year nominees
• Don Mattingly, Miami Marlins
• David Ross, Chicago Cubs
• Jayce Tingler, San Diego Padres
NL Manager EARL Leaders
1. Don Mattingly, Miami Marlins (EARL: 13.0)
2. Dave Roberts, Los Angeles Dodgers (EARL: 7.1)
3. David Ross, Chicago Cubs (EARL: 5.0)
4. Bud Black, Colorado Rockies (EARL: 4.4)
5. Jayce Tingler, San Diego Padres (EARL: 3.1)
Getting the Marlins to the postseason is going to merit Manager of the Year consideration no matter what the circumstances might be. But to do it after Miami suffered a widespread COVID-19 outbreak early in the season makes this a no-brainer for Mattingly. The Marlins -- already a team devoid of stars -- used 12 more players than any other team in baseball. The numbers behind EARL don't even know that and they still rated him as the NL's best skipper.
My pick: Mattingly