Relief pitchers are viewed as the most volatile of baseball assets, the stocks that can soar or plunge unpredictably, but Brad Hand has been one of the bets that has paid off most consistently. Acquired in a waiver claim by the Padres at the outset of the 2016 season, Hand led the majors in appearances in his first summer with San Diego, with 82. Over his past five seasons, with the Padres and Indians, he has had a 2.70 ERA with 104 saves and three All-Star appearances. If there had been an All-Star Game this year, he likely would've been picked again. He's just 30 years old, very young in left-hander dog years.
But last week, Cleveland dumped him, for nothing, a transaction that sent shockwaves through an industry -- a business, mind you, that already had been preparing for a market earthquake that could leave free-agent salaries in tatters.
The Indians held a $10 million option on Hand for the 2021 season, with a $1 million buyout. With no trade takers, Cleveland passed the lefty through waivers in the hopes that some team would claim him and relieve the team of a $1 million buyout.
There were no takers. Twenty-nine teams passed on a one-year deal for one of the best relievers in baseball.
The Indians formally declined the option and committed themselves to paying off the buyout, and Hand was tossed into the expanding ocean of free agents.
Before the coronavirus, before teams had to play without fans in the stands in 2020 and began preparing for the possibility of no fans in parks in 2021, Hand's deal would've been coveted. Less than a year ago, the Braves rushed the market to sign veteran lefty Will Smith to a three-year, $39 million contract. The Padres invested $34 million in a four-year contract with lefty Drew Pomeranz.
But the sport's financial condition is very different now. The presumption on all sides is that after a shortened season with no fans in the stands, there will be rollbacks in payroll -- much steeper for some teams than others -- and that some groups of free agents will take a huge hit. The journeyman replacement-level player who might've dreamed of a multiyear deal once he reached free agency might have to keep dreaming. The reliever who has put in years of steady service will be stunned by the lukewarm interest. The fourth-year player anticipating a big jump in salary via a turn through arbitration might get a call that he's just been released.
The Rays love Charlie Morton and could've locked him up for a one-year deal by picking up his $15 million option for 2021. They declined, because they hope to sign him for less. The Cardinals declined a $12.5 million option on second baseman Kolten Wong, whose value is bolstered by his offense and Gold Glove defense.
"You know how we've talked about cold markets [in recent winters]?" asked one team official. "Well, you ain't seen nothing yet."
The most popular strategy of the winter might be to wait. The general managers will wait to see whether peers will make deals to help set prices in the murky market. Agents and players will wait for better offers to emerge. And of course, everybody will be waiting -- everybody, as in owners, club officials, players, their representatives and fans -- to see whether there is a change in the coronavirus context. The best-case scenario is that a widely and rapidly distributed vaccine would allow the business of baseball to open up fully and fans to fill seats in 2021, but as Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner said recently, nobody knows when that will happen. Nobody knows if Major League Baseball in 2021 could turn out to look a lot like what we saw this year, with a brutal negotiation between the owners and players leading to a relatively short season played in empty ballparks.
But the unpredictability about baseball's business isn't about only the pandemic. The sport's collective bargaining agreement is set to expire in a little more than 13 months, and it's very possible that two sides that have a poor working relationship will struggle to forge a new agreement in an industry desperately in need of sweeping changes. Some teams may shy away from investing money this winter partly because they simply have no idea what's on the other side of this pile of complications. There may be agents who encourage their clients to wait for better conditions, like real estate brokers waiting for an upturn in prices.
According to club officials and agents, these are some of the factors worth watching:
1. Which teams will be aggressive? (Because there aren't going to be many.)
The whole industry took a hit in 2020, but some teams are better off than others. Everyone will be watching the Mets, for example, with new owner Steve Cohen giving every indication that he intends to put the franchise in a place more appropriate for a big-market powerhouse. "I anticipate closing the deal in the next 10 days and then it's off and running," Cohen wrote in a Twitter thread Sunday. "I would love to hear your ideas to make YOUR Mets experience better."
A lot of Mets fans would vote for All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto, or outfielder George Springer, or ace Trevor Bauer. Heck, they're fans, so they might vote that the Mets sign all three. But whatever form it takes, the Mets are expected to spend money this winter. The Toronto Blue Jays, with a young and developing team and an ownership on sound financial footing, might turn into spenders. A handful of others might join them, providing CPR for the free-agent market.
2. Where do the numbers fall for the best free agents?
Realmuto, Bauer and Springer are clearly the best available, best-positioned, and they'll be outliers in the money they get. But they'll also begin to set the structure of wherever the reconstructed free-agent market will go. Does Realmuto get as much as everyone thought he might last spring? Does he get a little less? Does he get markedly less? Does Bauer, as the most coveted pitcher, get offers closer to $100 million than $200 million?
These unknowns, once settled, will help to define the ceilings of where numbers might go.
3. How draconian will the teams' non-tender decisions be?
Over the next month, teams will weigh whether to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players, and if those mirror the bare-bones approach we've seen from teams in the choices about whether to pick up options, there may be another large wave of players pushed into the already massive free-agent class.
For example: The Phillies' Hector Neris could go through arbitration this winter, but his team just turned down a $7 million option for him for 2021. According to MLB Trade Rumors, he could be in line for an arbitration upgrade for as much as $6.4 million for next season. But given the many, many relievers on the open market, and Neris' mediocre results last summer, could the Phillies simply cut him free and bet they can replicate his performance by adding a less costly reliever?
The expectation among teams and agents is that there will be a record number of players who aren't tendered contracts.
4. What happens with the best relievers?
Baseball has moved to rely more and more on relievers -- and trust reliever investment less and less. The notion of giving a reliever $16 million a year in a deal, as the Yankees did last winter with Aroldis Chapman, seems utterly far-fetched. Hand might continue to be a barometer for what's to come, because he's now arguably among the very best on the lot. But it's worth remembering that the staggering number of available relievers is bound to work against all of them, through the supply-and-demand principle.
5. How aggressively will the Indians push to trade Francisco Lindor?
The All-Star shortstop agreed to a one-year, $17.5 million deal for 2020, and as he heads into his last season before free agency, he's bound to get even more for 2021, perhaps taking his salary over $20 million. The Indians could be highly motivated to move that potential cost, as well as to glean whatever return they can get for a player who is bound to sign a long-term contract elsewhere. The Indians could seek a deal similar to what the Red Sox got for Mookie Betts last winter. They have the option of keeping him into the 2021 season and perhaps dealing him midseason, or even keeping him all the way to when he departs as a free agent. But the Indians' history of handling prospective free agents -- dating back to CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, and continuing through the swap of Bauer in 2019, as he moved within two seasons of the open market -- tells you they will want to get prospect return for Lindor.
A move of Lindor's salary will probably affect other moves, in a winter that may have few really, really big moves.
6. How will teams use the game's financial uncertainty to push the youngest players into long-term deals?
Agents are steeling themselves for this inevitability. More than ever, teams will want cost certainty, and with a lot of veterans likely facing brutal cuts and fueling anxiety about where salaries are headed, front offices will be positioned to wield this inherent fear to draw the best and youngest and cheapest players into taking long-term deals that guarantee them a lot of money. Those decisions about whether to sign or not sign also will serve to shape the new dollar parameters in the sport.