The Houston Astros are the second team ever to force a Game 7 after falling behind 3-0 in the MLB playoffs.
Now they're the first team to do that -- and then lose that Game 7.
No, there won't be any 2004 Boston Red Sox magic for Houston, which started the year with a sign-stealing scandal and ended the regular season with a sub-.500 record, but looked a lot more like the defending American League champions in October. But it'll be the Tampa Bay Rays who move on to the 2020 World Series.
Bradford Doolittle takes a look at where the Astros stand and answers three key questions for the club moving forward to 2021 and beyond.
Houston Astros
Notable free agents: George Springer, Michael Brantley, Brad Peacock, Chris Devenski, Josh Reddick
Trade candidates: Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa
Extension candidates: Correa, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Urquidy, Josh James
1. Do they re-sign George Springer?
The Astros' outfield could look very different next season. We highlight Springer here because he has been in the organization the longest, going back to the rebuilding days, but Reddick and Brantley also are hitting the market. Springer looks like one of the upper-tier free agents as things stand with the offseason approaching. Even with teams cutting resources across baseball, that suggests he should have his fair share of suitors.
The dilemma for Houston would appear to be how the club can spread out its resources with Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Bregman and Jose Altuve all on the books for big money and Correa nearing the end of his arbitration window. With Verlander rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, the Astros saw enough from its young pitchers in 2020 to suggest they can go cheap on the pitching side. That could leave the team with enough flexibility to make a fair-market offer for Springer.
Still, there is an obvious point: If it were going to happen, wouldn't the Astros have extended Springer before now, as they did with Altuve and Bregman?
Whether Springer returns to Houston likely hinges on just how depressed the free-agent market turns out to be. While Springer is a very good and proven player with the kind of skills that should allow him to age gracefully, he is 31 years old, and we've seen how reticent teams have been in recent years when it comes to handing out multiyear contracts to over-30 position players. At the same time, he is also one of those players whose worth to the Astros has intangible aspects to it that make him even more valuable in Houston than he would be elsewhere.
The combination of the pandemic-depressed market and Springer's age could conspire to make a return to Houston a budget-friendly proposition -- if not in terms of dollars, at least in terms of years. With Brantley also hitting the market and the health of Alvarez a question mark, the Astros certainly could use his services.
2. What will the rotation look like without Justin Verlander?
Younger. Greinke will be 37, and while there is no reason to think he is going to go through a steep decline, he is no longer a stopper in the traditional sense. After that, you go to No. 2 starter Lance McCullers Jr., 27, and the move to some exciting young arms. Framber Valdez. Enoli Paredes. Urquidy. Forrest Whitley. Cristian Javier. Luis Garcia. Starting pitching looks like an organizational strength for Houston, though James Click and his staff might want to augment that with a back-of-the-rotation veteran just for inning stability.
It's never good to lose Justin Verlander. But the showing of the Astros' pitching staff in 2020 and into the postseason suggests the rotation should remain a strength.
3. How much of the collective hitting decline was real?
One rule of thumb for this offseason is that you want to be very careful about reading too much into a player's 2020 numbers, especially those of a traditional variety. However, there is one key data point for some of Houston's slumping hitters that is not subject to context:
PLAYER, OPS DECLINE, 2020 AGE
Yuli Gurriel, 226 points, 36
Jose Altuve, 274 points, 30
George Springer, 75 points, 30
Josh Reddick, 35 points, 33
Michael Brantley, 35 points, 33
Reddick, Springer and Brantley are headed into free agency, and while their numbers weren't that far off their recent norms, you always have to proceed with caution with hitters over 30, especially during the current era of extreme velocity from baseball's pitchers. It's awfully difficult to compensate for a loss in bat speed when the other guy is throwing 100.
The Astros will vote on the predictive value of the down seasons of their free-agent outfielders with their proverbial wallet, as we see how aggressively they pursue them. They've already shown faith in Gurriel, whose age and degree of decline is worrisome -- and it was followed up by an atrocious postseason. Gurriel was given a short extension that runs through next season (with a club option for 2022), which will keep him from reaching this year's free-agent market.
Finally, Altuve has four years and $116 million left on his contract. His decline is the most concerning, because of his age, the history of second basemen once they hit their 30s, and the degree to which he struggled for most of the weird pandemic season. Nevertheless, he is going to be the Houston second baseman in 2021, which will be a huge year for him and the organization.
Is the collective decline real? Probably not, at least not in total, and especially given how good the offense was in the playoffs. However, there is likely going to be some turnover in that familiar Astros lineup. And given age and trends, it's time for that to happen.