Every team started the Major League Baseball postseason with 23 possible paths. Those 23 possible paths accounted for each possible round and each possible opponent a team could play in each possible round, given how the bracket set up. Twenty-two of those possible paths would end with a disappointing, season-ending loss. The other one was the path without end -- the crowning achievement of a World Series title.
With the 16-team playoff field now half its original size, the array of possibilities has dwindled. We can more easily eye the bracket and think ahead to Fall Classic clashes, the annual matchup that to some extent defines each season, or at least gives each campaign its lasting resonance. The eight remaining teams give us 16 possible World Series combinations, ranging from a recent rematch (Astros-Dodgers) to the first-ever all-Florida series (Rays-Marlins).
One thing we know for sure is that whoever ends up surviving to the final round, they will play in a World Series like no other. Bubble baseball will be in effect, with few fans in attendance and the playing field a neutral site for both clubs. And it will be at brand-new Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, where just nine teams thus far have played.
Each fall, when the playoff field comes into focus, I like to list the possible matchups by my personal preference, much in the way my colleague David Schoenfield does in his annual lookahead at the Fall Classic matchups. While my preferences can be complicated by work-related travel demands (not relevant in 2020) and rooting interests that I keep private, by and large I have one criterion: What would be the most classic matchup?
As it turns out, not many of the remaining possibilities register as all that classic. Beside, just what is a classic matchup? Allow me to answer my own question. This year, I fine-tuned a method to quantify this very subjective query. For each possible matchup, I applied points based on answers to the following questions:
1. Is it a matchup between two classic franchises? By "classic" franchise, I'm referring to one of the 16 clubs that comprised the major leagues from 1903 to 1953. Why I'm so fixated by an era I never came close to experiencing is hard to say, but I am.
2. Is it rematch between two classic franchises? The Tigers and Dodgers have never met in the World Series, though they are both classic franchises. (It would be the "Kirk Gibson" series if they ever do end up in the Fall Classic together.) The Athletics and Dodgers have met in a couple of World Series. This system gives more points to an Athletics-Dodgers matchup than a Tigers-Dodgers matchup.
3. Is it a rematch of any sort? Well, if the Astros and Dodgers were to meet up again, it should get some extra credit, even if the Astros are an expansion franchise. The system awards points for that.
4. How many times have these franchises met in the World Series? The more the organizations have hooked up in October, more points they get.
5. How old is the World Series rematch, dating from the first meeting? This is a trait that tickles my history-obsessed brain. If the Cubs and White Sox had met in the World Series, it would be their first World Series clash since 1906, the only time it's happened. But that also makes it a 114-year-old World Series rematch. Deserves some points.
6. How old are the franchises? The older you are, the more classic you are. In fact, the older you are, the more you prefer the label "classic" to the label "old." The Mets might be an expansion team, but at this point, they've been around for nearly six decades -- more than the entire duration of that Golden Era that I like so much. The Rays have been around since 1998. The system awards points based on these differences.
7. Is this a rematch of teams in the same ballparks? Keep in mind, that I not only rate each possible matchup from the present season, but all the World Series matchups that have come before. The 1939 World Series between the Reds (Crosley Field) and the Yankees (old Yankee Stadium) took place at the same venues as the 1961 World Series between the same teams. When they next hooked up, in 1976, the Reds had moved to Riverfront Stadium, so the matchup gets slightly docked for that. The 1967 World Series (Red Sox-Cardinals) took place in the same venues as the 2004 World Series. When Boston and St. Louis hooked up again in 2013, the Redbirds had moved into a new stadium. This system awards more points if the rematch takes place in the same ballparks.
8. Is this a rematch of the teams while in the same city/neighborhood/suburb? This distinguishes between a Brooklyn Dodgers-Yankees matchup and a Los Angeles Dodgers-Yankees matchup, for example. There is also a bit more of a bonus for a team that's playing in the same neighborhood. The Cardinals get more credit for rematches in new Busch Stadium than they would have had they moved to suburban Chesterfield, Missouri, for example. This is to account for teams like the Yankees, Brewers, Cardinals, Rangers and White Sox who have built new ballparks adjacent to the ones they replaced. If you can still go to the same neighborhood watering holes, that should count for something.
The points I assign for each criterion is entirely subjective and I offer no defense for them. But, of course, the whole concept is subjective. Keep in mind that the venue-related component of the ranking formula doesn't hold any sway this year aesthetically, since the meeting will be in Texas, no matter what. Speaking as a Chicago-based baseball writer and fan, that kind of makes me relieved the Cubs and White Sox didn't end up in a 1906 rematch. Let's save that epic clash for 2021. Anyway, I left the venue component in place as part of the formula, just to create some separation in the scores.
Let's move on to the rankings.
1. New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Classic score: 132.3)
The Yankees and Dodgers have met in the World Series four times since the latter abandoned Brooklyn for the West Coast more than six decades ago. They haven't met since 1981, but with the first East-West Yankees-Dodgers World Series happening in 1963, this version of the rivalry has some age on it. And, of course, there were numerous Yankee Stadium-Ebbets Field Fall Classics in the decades before the Dodgers moved.
There is an extra layer to this possible rematch that should be acknowledged. The shortest season in modern baseball history, before 2020, was the strike-shortened 1981 season. Between the two-month strike in the middle of the season and the bizarre split-season format the Lords of Baseball came up with to determine a champion, there was a lot of hand-wringing about how the eventual champion would come to be viewed.
Back then, when we ended up with another Yankees-Dodgers World Series, it somehow lent credibility to the whole undertaking. It's not that we don't remember the context of that season, but Yankees-Dodgers is not just a matchup that screams "World Series" more than any other, but in 1981, both teams had been among baseball's best for a multiyear period.
If this matchup recurs in a couple of weeks, much of that 1981 dynamic would be in play. For one thing, while no one was really doing mathematical projections of teams in 1981, lots of us do that now. And a Yankees-Dodgers World Series seemed like a realistic outcome for the season, even before the onset of the pandemic, the 60-game season and the 16-team playoffs.
2. Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Classic score: 97.2)
Two classic franchises, both of which started in the East. The Philadelphia Athletics and Brooklyn Dodgers never hooked up in a Fall Classic. However, there have been a pair of memorable World Series between the franchises since they moved West, in 1974 and 1988. The latter was the most recent championship season for the Dodgers, most remembered for the Kirk Gibson homer off Dennis Eckersley in Game 1 of the World Series. If not for the neutral-site setup, another A's-Dodgers showdown would be the third played in the same ballparks.
3. Oakland Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves (Classic score: 95.0)
Oakland and Atlanta have never met in the World Series, but the franchises did hook up in 1914, when they were in Philadelphia and Boston, respectively, which makes this a very old World Series rematch. That series unfolded between Fenway Park, where the then-Boston Braves opted to play that fall, and Philadelphia's Shibe Park. Both stadiums were sparkling new at the time. That was the year of the Miracle Braves, when Boston rose from last place on July 18 to the pennant. After the Braves swept Connie Mack's Athletics in the World Series, Mack unloaded his high-priced players, ending a long run of dominance for his White Elephant.
4. New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves (Classic score: 93.1)
The first Yankees-Braves World Series didn't take place until 1957, when the latter was in Milwaukee, then they played again the very next season. About four decades later, they met twice in four years -- 1996 and 1999 -- during the Derek Jeter/Andruw Jones years. As you can see from the classic score for this matchup, compared to the one that follows, there are really only four truly "classic" possibilities left this season. Every other possibility would involve an expansion franchise.
5. Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Classic score: 34.4)
Yeah, we remember what happened that one time they met, in 2017. It would be a lot more fun to see this rematch in the teams' home venues in front of sellout crowds. But after the empty-ballpark drama from their meeting during the regular season, maybe a neutral site is for the best. If the Dodgers and Astros hook up again, this would qualify as a new classic, given the controversial context and the bad blood between the teams.
6. New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres (Classic score: 33.5)
As long as the Yankees are alive in a playoff bracket, the possibility for rematch magic is always alive. The only three National League franchises the Yankees have never met in the World Series are the Brewers, Nationals and Rockies, none of whom is still playing. This one would be a rematch of the 1998 Fall Classic, between one of the best New York squads ever and the second of the two Tony Gwynn-led Padres clubs to win an NL pennant. Given the Yankees' likely status as a perennial contender and San Diego's status as a brand-new power, led by a superstar in Fernando Tatis Jr., this would also have "new classic" potential.
7. New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins (Classic score: 29.9)
The Marlins haven't been around as long as the Padres, which is why this one doesn't rate as high has Padres-Yankees. Yankees fans don't want to play the Marlins in a postseason series, revenge opportunities aside. The Marlins do not lose postseason series, with their 2003 World Series victory over New York just one example.
8. Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves (Classic score: 20.4)
From here on out, we're rating non-rematches that involve at least one expansion club. The Astros-Braves pairing gets a boost because the Astros were a first-generation NL expansion club in 1962, while the Braves' franchise dates back to the beginning of time. While non-World Series pairings aren't part of this formula, I should acknowledge that there was a period around the turn of the century when the Astros facing the Braves was a regular October thing. From 1997 to 2005, they met five times in the playoffs. Atlanta won the first three of those, in 1997, 1999 and 2001. The last of those wins was the most recent playoff series Atlanta won before beating Cincinnati in the wild-card round last week. The Astros won the last two meetings, in 2004 and 2005.
9. Oakland Athletics vs. San Diego Padres (Classic score: 17.2)
This gets a boost because ... Rollie Fingers and Rickey Henderson played for both teams?
10. Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves (Classic score: 16.8)
The baseball implications of a 2020 Rays-Braves World Series would be compelling and it would be a great matchup. From the standpoint of historical context ... these are two teams who definitely could play each other.
11. Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Classic score: 16.0)
Kind of like the Rays-Braves, which ranks higher because the Braves are an older franchise. However, this one has the obvious added narrative element of being a showdown between the two powers built by Andrew Friedman, though the Rays have certainly iterated a number of times since he moved to the Dodgers. Alas, the system being used for this exercise doesn't have a bonus for narrative potential.
12. Oakland Athletics vs. Miami Marlins (Classic score: 14.8)
For some reason, looking at this makes me think of the American Basketball Association. Oaks and Floridians? My brother and I, in the days before interleague play, used to blurt out matchups that seemed amusingly impossible. "Rangers-Expos!" And we'd laugh and laugh. This one kind of makes me want to laugh. But it shows you how perspectives can be so different between sports. When I think of these cities from an NFL perspective, some of the coolest 1970s showdowns between the Raiders and Dolphins spring to mind. They are a fixture of the old NFL Films programs.
13. Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres (Classic score: 11.1)
There's a lot of baseball history between the franchises, just not in the World Series, so that doesn't rate in this system. The Astros and Padres both played in the NL West from 1969 to 1993. They played in a 1998 National League Division Series, won by San Diego in four games, as the Padres went on to take the NL pennant. San Diego scored three earned runs in 14 innings off Randy Johnson in that series, and beat him twice. Also, Elvin Hayes played basketball in both cities for the same franchise.
14. Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins (Classic score: 8.7)
NASA or something? The Astros and Marlins never shared a division during Houston's time in the National League, nor did they meet in the playoffs.
15. Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Diego Padres (Classic score: 7.5)
It would be a great and compelling matchup. From a history standpoint, I've got nothing. Rays reliever Pete Fairbanks and Padres manager Jayce Tingler are both Missourians who played their college baseball at Mizzou, but not at the same time.
16. Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins (Classic score: 5.1)
Two newer franchises with zero postseason history. And while it's easy to be snarky and say that the Rays and Marlins would both feel comfortable playing a World Series in a domed venue before a small crowd, this could be a great thing for big league baseball in Florida. Even if they can't actually play the Series there.