Nobody in Major League Baseball's central office could have planned or hoped for better matchups in these MLB playoffs than what has landed in the laps of fans in the four division series -- which, for this year, could be renamed The (Hated) Division (Rival) Series.
The last time the Rays and Yankees played, Aroldis Chapman nearly beaned Tampa Bay's Mike Brosseau, and Rays manager Kevin Cash suggested the New York coaching staff had lost control of its players. When Houston and Oakland played this year, former Astro Ramon Laureano charged the Astros' dugout -- a move a lot of his teammates would probably like to attempt, given Houston's sign-stealing success and how the A's believe their complaints of cheating were ignored. The Dodgers were livid in mid-September when the Padres' Trent Grisham, one of San Diego's many young players, stood and posed after blasting a home run off L.A.'s most cherished teammate, future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. And the current relationship between the usually mild-mannered Braves and Marlins is framed by the fastball that Jose Urena drilled Ronald Acuna Jr. with two years ago. There is history in all of these series, a lot of it contentious.
With that in mind, here are the 10 most important duels in the division series.
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. Dodgers pitchers and scouting reports
The Padres' 21-year-old shortstop is probably the best thing that happened to baseball this year, with his incredible energy and talent, power and speed; and by and large he did huge damage -- an adjusted OPS+ of 155, 17 homers and 50 runs in 59 games. But the Dodgers might've cost him the MVP trophy with the way they shut him down: In 10 games, he batted .205, with a .629 OPS.
The Dodgers' left-handers really had very specific game plans against Tatis, with Clayton Kershaw pounding him with sliders, and Julio Urias attacking him at the top of the zone. L.A.'s right-handed pitching plan wasn't as distinct, and in fact, some of the underlying numbers suggest that Tatis hit into some bad luck.
2. The Rays vs. the strikeouts
Tampa Bay has an incredibly deep and versatile collection of position players, seemingly boasting a left- or right-handed-hitting alternative for each situation. But as one scout noted this weekend, the Rays swing and miss a lot -- in fact, more than any other team in this strange season, as the Rays averaged just over 10 strikeouts per game. It's easier to overcome that kind of trait in the regular season against mediocre teams, but against the best teams, it might be a problem, especially in run-scoring opportunities. Shortstop Willy Adames had 74 strikeouts in 185 at-bats, and catcher Mike Zunino had 37 strikeouts in 75 at-bats. It's possible that the Rays pitch so well that the bar for necessary success won't be high for their offense.
3. The Astros vs. their pitching depth
Houston shut down the Twins over two days by squeezing its best pitchers into action. But now the Astros will have to play five games in five days against the Athletics, and manager Dusty Baker will have to rely on others besides his core arms (as will Oakland's Bob Melvin, and every other manager working in the division series). This is where the loss of Justin Verlander and other Houston arms to injury could really hurt.
Presumably, Zack Greinke will start Game 1, and Framber Valdez and Jose Urquidy could open games. The stress could really come at the back end of the series, when the relievers could be taxed and Baker will have to consider using starters in relief roles.
4. Giancarlo Stanton vs. breaking balls
Stanton had home runs in each of the two games against the Indians, a good playoff start for a player who really hasn't had a lot of reps the past couple of years. But two evaluators with other teams wondered why Cleveland kept throwing Stanton fastballs, on which he could extend his arms, when it was clear to them that Stanton looks very uncomfortable against spin. It seems unlikely that the Rays will take the same approach.
Sarah Langs of MLB.com sent these numbers along: Stanton hit .217 with a .391 slugging percentage on plate appearances that ended in breaking balls during this regular season, and had two doubles and no home runs. He had a 39.5% swing-and-miss rate. The league averages: .211 average, .361 slugging percentage. So Stanton fared barely above average against breaking stuff.
5. Mookie Betts vs. left-handed pitching
Betts won the AL MVP Award in 2018 and he just got the second-biggest contract in baseball, so he's mostly a player without weakness. But the right-handed-hitting Betts has really struggled against lefties this year -- with just 12 total bases in 64 plate appearances, and slugging just .218. That's the lowest in the big leagues. This can happen with elite right-handed hitters, who will sometimes struggle to deal with the shape and trajectory of the breaking balls of left-handed pitchers.
In the past, managers would ignore numbers like that and stick to the conventional wisdom of lining up right-handed pitchers against someone like Betts. But the Padres, having lost Mike Clevinger to injury, will be freelancing through a lot of the Dodgers series by focusing on matchups, and they have the depth to line up lefties against Betts. We'll see.
6. Freddie Freeman vs. left-handed pitchers
He got a game-winning hit in Game 1 of the wild-card series against Cincinnati left-hander Amir Garrett, and under any circumstances, he's a tough out. But Freeman's numbers against left-handers this year were more Clark Kent than Superman, although he's also still the likely NL MVP award winner. He had an OPS of 1.228 vs. right-handers, but .726 versus lefties, and you would assume that Marlins manager Don Mattingly will try to exploit those numbers with the likes of Richard Bleier and Stephen Tarpley.
7. Padres and Dodgers hitters vs. Globe Life Field hitting conditions
For years, a trip through Arlington, Texas, meant good stuff for hitters, and usually, ugliness for pitchers. But the Rangers' new ballpark, where this Dodgers-Padres series will be played, was very different -- under a dome roof and without the wind howling toward right field. In the small sample of games this year, there were 66 home runs in Globe Life, 22nd among the 30 parks, and 268 runs, 17th most. When the Rangers designed their new park, they aimed for it to be fair for both hitters and pitchers, and early indications are they were successful.
8. The Marlins vs. Starling Marte's absence
Miami made an aggressive move for the center fielder before the trade deadline and it paid off, as Marte helped get the Marlins into the postseason. But the veteran outfielder suffered a non-displaced fracture at the base of his left pinkie when he was hit by a pitch in the Cubs series. He was out of the starting lineup for the second game against the Cubs, with manager Don Mattingly indicating that Marte was an option to come off the bench as a defender or pinch runner. Time will tell whether he will become a viable option, perhaps through pain management. Knowing Marte's competitiveness, he probably will try to work through the injury in some way. Magneuris Sierra, who replaced Marte in Game 2, is a good defender with speed but has little experience, batting .250 in 44 at-bats during the 60-game regular season.
9. Matt Olson vs. the fastball
Olson really struggled in the three-game set against the White Sox, going 0-for-9 with six strikeouts, as Chicago attacked him with fastballs -- and Olson had problems matching the velocity. You'd assume the Houston staffers and catcher Martin Maldonado took notes.
Per Langs, "In the regular season, Olson hit .202 and slugged .447 on fastballs. He had a 40.8% whiff rate on fastballs. In the series against the White Sox, he saw 69.1% fastballs, 14.5% breaking pitches, 16.4% offs-peed. He was 0-for-6 in at-bats that ended on fastballs."
10. The Yankees vs. their defense
They tied for the major league lead in errors in the regular season, with 47. Shortstop Gleyber Torres committed nine errors in 40 games. The Yankees played two relatively clean games against the Indians and won their wild-card series, and they'll need to keep this up against the Rays. The Yankees' defenders will benefit from the fact that they'll be playing on the soft grass of Petco Park, rather than on the artificial surface of the Trop, which has often given New York trouble.
News from around the major leagues
In his past years running baseball operations for the Mets, Sandy Alderson haggled with the Wilpons about spending money on the best possible scouting and player development talent because, as Alderson argued, if somebody enhanced a major leaguer's production, or helped you to avoid a big and expensive mistake, that person exceeded his value many times over. But the Mets' staff salaries continued to be notorious in the industry, as the ownership dealt with its financial issues.
Now Steve Cohen is set to take over as owner, assuming that he's approved, and already there are signs that he and Alderson will run the Mets very, very differently than the Wilpons. At a time when a lot of teams are furloughing or laying off scouting and front-office talent, Mets staffers were informed that their salaries -- cut earlier this year as the Mets looked to offset some of their 2020 losses -- will be fully restored on Nov. 1. Which seems like an incredibly sound strategy for any team that has some cash to work with under the current circumstances. "It's like there's been a real estate collapse, and now somebody could jump in and get a lot of great bargains," said one staffer.
Many, many really talented people have lost their jobs, and Cohen and Alderson could jump into the soft market of front-office types and theoretically put together an excellent, deep roster of scouts and development folks. This is worth remembering, as well: Earlier this year, Major League Baseball's legal department informed all teams that, because of the pandemic, clubs no longer had to honor the terms of the standard Uniform Employee Contract, and under that veil, hundreds of employees have been laid off.
But because the UEC has been treated as null and void, this also means that front-office types who currently hold jobs without the protection of the UEC could attempt to jump to another job in the industry. In effect, there are many, many free agents. The Mets or any other team could take advantage of this situation.
Additionally, if the Mets have money to spend on player procurement -- and many other teams are expected to cut payroll -- they will have many opportunities to bolster depth. On paper, the 2021 Mets look vulnerable, with holes in their rotation, but with a major downturn expected in the free-agent market on the horizon, Cohen and the Mets could buy as the market prices drop and other teams are selling.
A longtime player walked away from the Cubs after a year with the team in the aftermath of the franchise's 2016 title, and in speaking with a friend with another team, he talked with appreciation about how he liked the personalities of his teammates. But he also believed there was something missing: that burning desire to get better, to dig in and make the necessary adjustments. The player described the collective approach to work in this way: "They think, 'That's good enough.'"
Well, it's not good enough anymore, not after yet another season of disappointment, and a historically bad offensive performance. When the Cubs won the World Series with an incredibly young core of rising stars, the hope and expectation within the organization was that the key members of the lineup would grow and improve together, and that just hasn't happened. Theo Epstein, who heads up the Cubs' baseball operations and is entering the last year of his contract with the team, spoke with concern two years ago about his perception of the team's sense of urgency, and it's possible he'll make major changes this winter, while dealing with the franchise's financial stresses.
I asked evaluators to assess what they see in some of the key Cubs:
• Kyle Schwarber: In Schwarber's first half-season in the big leagues, he posted a 131 in wRC+ over 273 plate appearances, and the cherry on top of those early signs of future greatness was the home run on top of the signage in right field. Even after Schwarber missed almost all of 2016 with a knee injury, he came back for the World Series and generated plate appearances that were shockingly competitive for someone who had been out of action for more than six months.
But while Schwarber has had bursts and streaks of production since then, he hasn't matched those early numbers, and has had long stretches in which he has looked lost at the plate. In the 60-game regular season of 2020, he had an on-base percentage of .308. Schwarber turns 28 next March, and through arbitration eligibility, he's in line for a healthy raise for next season, leaving rival evaluators to wonder if the Cubs will try to deal him or non-tender him.
"I think he's a good player," said a front-office executive in the NL. "I just don't know if he's capable of going to the next level. He'll hit you some home runs and he'll get on base when he's going good, but is he going to be better than what he's been? I don't know."
Said a rival staffer: "I thought the hype around him [in '15 and '16] exceeded what he actually was as a player. I never thought he was ever going to be a star."
• Javier Baez: Because of his entire set of tools -- the defense, the baserunning -- Baez can be an impact player, at his best. But his kryptonite has always been -- and might always be -- his lack of plate discipline, which was glaring in 2020. He swung at 40.6% of pitches outside the strike zone, 10th worst in the majors, and his rate of swing-and-miss of 19.1% was the fourth worst. If a hitter keeps swinging at bad pitches, opposing pitchers will keep throwing bad pitches.
"At this point, he kind of is who he is," said the NL evaluator. "He's going to chase and that's not going to change. But it makes it tough to try to figure out where you put him in a lineup. You can't hit him leadoff, because he doesn't get on base, and you can't really bat him in the 3-4-5 spots, because he's really inconsistent."
• Kris Bryant: The third baseman won the NL MVP in 2016, and after some left shoulder issues in 2018, he bounced back with a .282/.382/.521 slash line in 2019. But he really struggled in 2020, posting a .644 OPS, and while most front offices will probably dismiss such a small body of work, there are teams watching from afar and struggling to square the Bryant of 2016 with what they saw this year. After accumulating four homers and 40 strikeouts, he will be eligible for another big raise in free agency. Rival evaluators wonder about how his slight-uppercut swing translates in an era in which pitchers have so much information about how to exploit holes.
"You have to be able to change and make adjustments," said one NL staffer. "I'm not really seeing that. Our guys don't think he's hard to pitch to."
• Willson Contreras: The feedback about him is very similar to that on Schwarber -- a good player, but maybe he'll never have the kind of impact that the Cubs thought when he performed so impressively as a very young catcher, making his debut shortly after his 24th birthday. Contreras is now 28.
Said an NL executive: "They need to shake up that group. They've waited a long time for it to come together, and they're not getting better ... They might feel like they're hungry, but it may be they need a change of scenery."