'What are we doing?' MLB reactions to permanently expanded playoffs

When MLB commissioner Rob Manfred spoke about the expanded playoff field the other day and the intention to implement it going forward, he probably didn't mean the 2021 format will be exactly the same as 2020's -- 16 teams, with an initial best-of-three wild-card round.

But the mere suggestion of having the same system in place for 2021 set off an eruption of dissent around the sport.

"Are you kidding me?" asked one evaluator. "What are we doing?"

Whatever format is used next year would have to be negotiated with the MLB Players Association, and as mentioned in a note below, there is grave concern in front offices that baseball might again face a truncated season without fans in the stands. But if spring training can start on time -- MLB issued exhibition schedules the other day -- and 162 games are played, there will be a lot of sentiment to turn the 2020 playoff arrangement into a one-and-done.

Players, athletic trainers, teams, Major League Baseball and the Players Association deserve a lot of credit for getting the sport to the cusp of a postseason, in the face of a national coronavirus surge, and part of that will be to live with some of the inequities and imperfections in the 2020 postseason format. The Los Angeles Dodgers, the best team in baseball in this strange year, will be immediately in jeopardy in the playoffs, playing the National League's No. 8 seed in a best-of-three series in a sport that is far more serendipitous than the NBA or NFL. Before our Sunday Night Baseball game last weekend, I asked Dodgers manager Dave Roberts about the best-of-three vulnerability -- and he said flatly he doesn't like it. But they'll attack it and move on.

Next season, however, the feeling among a lot of folks at the team level is that there needs to be a reinforcement of the value of winning in the regular season. An initial bye for the top seed or for the best two or three seeds. Some very tangible rewards for winning the regular season, to give teams greater incentive to distinguish themselves and take a division, to make midseason deals.

"Let's face it, teams are more rational than they've ever been before," said one evaluator. "If you have a similar system [to the 2020 format], what is going to push teams to get better? Why spend the extra money in the offseason to upgrade your rotation when you know you've got a good chance to get into the postseason" -- with 16 teams -- "and there really is not much difference between finishing as the No. 1 seed or being the No. 8?

"If they keep the same format, it's going to really cut down on the midseason moves, on teams working to get better."

If Manfred put the issue up for vote at the team level, there'd be a lot of support for a 12-team playoff and some support for a 14-team format.

But 16 teams? Probably not. Not when your season is supposed to about having the endurance to separate yourself over 162 games.

• The staff layoffs that continue around baseball -- the Braves and the Phillies are the latest that we've heard about -- reflect the ongoing concern around baseball that what lies ahead in 2021 is going to be very similar to MLB in 2020. If there's no widely accessible vaccine by early next year, and certainly not soon enough to make fans feel comfortable, there might be another season without fans in the stands.

If there are no fans in the stands, there will again need to be negotiated terms over what form MLB will take in 2021, whether it be 60 games or 80 or 100 or more, and at what level of compensation -- perhaps a repeat of the very bitter process that took place in May and June of 2020. And those conversations would take place in the context of what is expected to be an incredibly brutal and cold winter for most free agents, with players who get one- or two-year deals expected to absorb a big rollback as teams adjust to a new financial reality, whatever that is.

• Before this year's Aug. 31 trade deadline, teams were not informed of the plans to play a lot of the postseason series on consecutive days; the championship series, for example, will be comprised of seven-game series scheduled over seven straight days. In an already very different 2020, this is a very different arrangement than in a typical season, when there would be at least two off days in a seven-game series, allowing for managers to rely on as few as three or four starting pitchers and build in rest for relief pitchers.

"If teams had known that, you don't think that the Yankees would have added another starting pitcher?" said one rival executive. "You don't think teams would have looked to add more pitching?"

The Yankees did try to add starting pitching -- they talked to the Rangers about Lance Lynn, and to the Indians about Mike Clevinger -- but the point is well-taken. The depth of rotations will be tested in a way we haven't seen in recent decades, particularly at a time when clubs are more reluctant than ever to start pitchers on short rest.

Use the Yankees as an example: Gerrit Cole would presumably be the preference to start Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, if possible, followed by (perhaps) Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, Deivi Garcia and Jordan Montgomery. The Yankees could consider pushing Cole to work on short rest, in Game 5 rather than Game 6, but he still would only be able to work twice in a seven-game series played over seven days. And manager Aaron Boone would not be able to be as aggressive pushing for bullpen matchups; rather, there might be a greater need to get as many outs of the starting pitcher on a given day.

Without the off days of a series, it would be impossible to rely on a small handful of pitchers -- in the manner, for example, of how Terry Francona used Corey Kluber and relievers Andrew Miller, Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen in the 2016 postseason or how Bruce Bochy got 52⅔ playoff and World Series innings out of Madison Bumgarner in 2015.

Teams best suited for this type of series:

1. Minnesota Twins: They've actually got a surplus of starters from whom to choose -- Jose Berrios, Kenta Maeda, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Randy Dobnak, Rich Hill and even Homer Bailey.

2. Cleveland Indians: Zach Plesac continues to throw well for the Indians since being placed in temporary exile, and he and Shane Bieber are backed by Aaron Civale, Carlos Carrasco and Triston McKenzie.

3. Chicago Cubs: Cy Young Award candidate Yu Darvish, who starts for Chicago on Sunday Night Baseball against the Twins, is backed by Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester.

3a. Cincinnati Reds: Trevor Bauer is a Cy Young Award candidate, and Luis Castillo is coming off his best outings of the season. Sonny Gray was throwing well before his recent back trouble; his hope is he'll pitch again this season. The Reds also have Tyler Mahle and Anthony DeSclafani.

The teams perhaps least suited for the gauntlet of seven games in seven days?

1. Atlanta Braves: They are likely to win the NL East, but the rotation has just been ravaged by injuries and performance problems, and so the group won't be close to full strength at the start of the postseason. Max Fried came off the injured list to throw five innings on Friday, and Cole Hamels made his first start the other day. Ian Anderson has been excellent in his first starts of his career. And remember this: Atlanta's offense is working extremely well and could give the Braves' starters some margin for error.

2. Milwaukee Brewers: Brandon Woodruff will get some down-ballot support for the Cy Young Award, but the Brewers' starters have averaged less than five innings per outing. The good thing is, Milwaukee is probably as good as any team in baseball at piecing together pitching.

3. Toronto Blue Jays: They helped themselves, theoretically, by adding Taijuan Walker and Robbie Ray before the trade deadline, but both can be erratic. Walker didn't make it out of the second inning in his last start, at Yankee Stadium.