The emergence of Steve Cohen as the likely owner of the New York Mets is being treated as great news by player agents, in a year of a lot of bad financial developments in major league baseball. "A godsend," one called it.
Cohen will become the richest owner in baseball if his purchase of the Mets is approved by at least 23 of the other 29 owners, and there's natural concern among some agents that part of the vetting process will be the application of subtle peer pressure -- or not-so-subtle -- with others warning the newcomer against jumping in and immediately flexing his financial muscle.
But whether Cohen chooses to follow the model of the Los Angeles Dodgers of recent years, investing heavily in player development while being selectively aggressive on big-name deals, or chooses to go all-in on free agents and exploit a depressed market, there is a wide industry expectation that the Mets will finally conduct their business as a powerful big-market team should.
This could affect many in the game directly, and indirectly. Among those:
J.T. Realmuto: The player widely regarded as the best catcher in baseball likely will hit the free-agent market this fall, unless the Phillies complete a deal with him before then -- but it makes sense now for Realmuto's agent, Jeff Berry, to take him into the open market. And if Cohen wants to make a splash in free agency, then Realmuto is going to be one of the best available opportunities. The Mets hold a $10 million team option on catcher Wilson Ramos, who is 33 years old and bearing an OPS in 2020 of .692. Realmuto is a great two-way player -- and at the very least, the Mets might benefit from a pursuit of the catcher by driving up the price for the Phillies or the Yankees.
Realmuto, who turns 30 next March, has an .883 OPS, and could be in line for one of the most significant deals ever for a catcher. The best so far: Joe Mauer's $184 million deal signed in 2010, at a time when Mauer was on the cusp of his 27th birthday, and Buster Posey's nine-year, $167 million deal, signed when Posey was 26.
Hal Steinbrenner: The Yankees always spend a lot of money on their payroll -- in most years, they'll rank in the top five teams in spending -- because they make a lot of money. But the Yankees' owner has operated in a context in which his outlay gets compared directly to that of the team across town. Nobody knows for sure whether Cohen is going to spend big, but if he does -- and new owners almost always announce their presence with authority -- then the Yankees and Steinbrenner will be pushed.
Michael Conforto: The Mets' outfielder is going to be named on a lot of MVP ballots this fall -- well, in spots behind Fernando Tatis Jr., anyway -- after his best showing in any season (albeit one of 60 games). Conforto is hitting .343, with an adjusted OPS+ of 172, which sets him up nicely for 2021, his last season under Mets control before he hits the free-agent market. Conforto is represented by Scott Boras, and if Cohen wants to lock up the Mets' homegrown slugger -- something Boras almost never lets happen when the client is that close to free agency -- you can bet a very high price is going to be extracted.
The Phillies: They've always been the NL East team most likely to spend big, which is how they landed Bryce Harper and Jake Arrieta, and when a premier free agent was up for bidding, you could almost always count on the Mets to neatly finish second or third. But that won't necessarily be the case anymore, and the Phillies could get the first real experience of the Mets' spending power if Cohen targets Realmuto, an All-Star Philadelphia wants to keep.
Trevor Bauer: In the past, Bauer has talked about going through his career on a series of one-year deals, to ensure that he bears maximum leverage and earns the best possible compensation after a strong season. Bauer is having a spectacular season and will presumably have a lot of choices as he heads into free agency this fall. He could aim for a record-setting one-year deal, which teams may well consider because they could bypass long-term risk, or Bauer could entertain long-term offers and extract the most guaranteed money possible, something the union might prefer in a winter in which a lot of free agents are going to struggle to match compensation of past offseasons.
For the Mets, the 2020 version of Bauer could be a perfect complement for Jacob deGrom in 2021 (and beyond, maybe). Bauer is 4-3 with a 1.71 ERA.
George Springer: He'll be the best available free-agent outfielder, and the UConn product could be a natural match for the Mets. Just imagine what the Mets' 2021 lineup might look like if Cohen went in big on position players this winter (and he certainly has the money to afford any of the available players):
3B Jeff McNeil
LF Springer
RF Conforto
C Realmuto
DH Dominic Smith
1B Pete Alonso
2B Robinson Cano
CF Brandon Nimmo
SS Andres Gimenez
Or, perhaps, Cohen and his baseball ops people will decide to focus on the free-agent class of 2021, which is stacked with shortstops ...
Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, or Corey Seager: (We'll leave Javier Baez off this list, under the assumption he'll work out an extension with the Cubs.) If you think of this like a game of musical chairs: There just aren't many teams that will have a need at shortstop and be able to comfortably afford these star shortstops after the 2021 season. The Giants, yes; the Dodgers; the Yankees, who now watched Gleyber Torres at shortstop for a short season and at least have reason to be concerned about whether he can play in that spot; the Phillies; the Red Sox; and finally, Steve Cohen's Mets. Lindor seems very likely to wind up on one of those six clubs.
Aaron Judge: He'll be eligible for free agency after the 2022 season, at the age of 30. In the past, the notion that the Mets might pry a Yankees star away from the team across town would've been unthinkable. But it'll be a whole new world.
Major league baseball: The sport has benefited significantly from the emergence of the Dodgers into the power they should be after Frank McCourt sold the team, and the same thing could happen with the Queens-based franchise. The Mets should go toe-to-toe with the Yankees for the best players and should be in the conversation as a contender for a championship. They should join the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox as possible buyers in most July trade markets and should be in the bidding for the most expensive free agents. It'll be good for the players (and their agents), good for the teams, good for the sport.