It's easy to speculate that Chris Sale's decision to have Tommy John surgery was pushed by baseball's coronavirus shutdown, like a NASCAR driver going to the pits in a race halted by an accident. With the immediate future of the MLB season cloudy, Sale can use the downtime to get fixed.
But Sale's choice, announced by the Boston Red Sox on Thursday evening, was based on two factors that have nothing to do with the sport's lockdown.
The first reason: His elbow needed to be fixed. He has an unusual and violent delivery, and for years, evaluators expected there would come a time when he would blow out his elbow. Sale lasted a lot longer than many teams expected, including clubs that shied away from him in the draft -- and even the White Sox, who decided to trade him when they did partly because they were afraid he would break down and they would be left with a worthless asset.
But his elbow finally gave out. The problem first manifested itself significantly late last season, and some in the Red Sox organization thought he might have a reconstruction then. However, in his brief meeting with Dr. James Andrews -- as described by Sale this spring -- the surgeon told him that the problem with his ulnar collateral ligament could be treated, and that the left-hander didn't need surgery immediately.
Sale went through a winter throwing program, and when he first played catch, Sale said in February, he felt great. But with a 15-pitch session in live batting practice March 1, the elbow trouble returned. Over a 48-hour period, doctors conferred and Sale was given the option of trying noninvasive treatment -- and once again, the UCL was an issue.
And reason No. 2: If Sale continued to put off surgery that increasingly seemed inevitable for another couple of months, then he might not only lose his 2020 season, but also all of 2021. By having the surgery now, Sale could be back on the mound sometime next year, following a Tommy John recovery time that is typically 12 to 15 months (assuming his rehabilitation goes according to plan).
Sale could be back on a mound next spring, and given his competitiveness, he might be pushing to be part of Boston's Opening Day roster -- and generate production in Year 2 of his five-year, $145 million extension.
The timing of the surgery, with the aim to have Sale back in the rotation in 2021, also better fits the Red Sox's trajectory. Since Boston won the 2018 World Series, it has allowed free agents Craig Kimbrel and Rick Porcello to walk away; fired David Dombrowski, its head of baseball ops, and replaced him with Chaim Bloom; parted ways (at least temporarily) with manager Alex Cora after Cora was linked to the Astros' sign-stealing scandal; and traded its best player, Mookie Betts, while attaching David Price to the deal. This was likely to be a rebuilding year for the Red Sox anyway, in a season in which the division rival Yankees and Rays might dominate the AL East, and the absence of Sale this year would probably change nothing.
Boston might be in better position to contend in 2021, with its payroll in order, with its roster likely augmented by winter acquisitions, and now with the scheduled return of Sale to the mound.