What baseball will look like during the 2020s

One hundred years ago, baseball underwent changes that writer and historian Bill James described as "the most sudden and dramatic of the 20th century."

A number of things happened around the same time. The fallout from the Black Sox scandal descended upon the sport during the latter stages of the 1920 season. Baseball hired its first commissioner in Kenesaw Mountain Landis. The dead ball era was put to rest in the form of several fundamental changes to the way the game was played on the field. That development was aided by the sudden ascension of star pitcher Babe Ruth to almost mythical status as the game's first -- and perhaps still greatest -- power hitter. The times were a-roarin'.

As we enter a new decade, it's far too soon to say if we can call this another version of the Roaring Twenties or the 21st-century Jazz Age. What seems certain is that while change is and has been afoot in baseball, the on-field product is not going to morph as abruptly or fundamentally as it did a century ago. Things will evolve, as they always have, but the changes won't necessarily jump off the sports page and poke us in the eye.

What follows is far less analytical than speculative, and there will be a fair bit of fantasy and wishful thinking peppered in. These are my musings on what the next decade might look like in baseball, a mix of what seem like clear trends and, frankly, what I'd like to see happen.

To present this vision, I've stolen some pages from James, as many of us in this business so often do. If you've read James' classic, "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract," published back in 2003, you'll recall that he captured the essence of each decade in baseball's annals from the 1870s through the 1990s with a "decade in a box" format. I'm copying that here, but I'm writing as if it is 2030, and we're looking back at the decade.

How the game was played

The rise of home runs and strikeouts that became so steep near the end of the 2010s continued for the first couple of years of the 2020s. However, as hitting technologies improved, the game began to rebalance itself.

Because the ability to hit homers became a de facto prerequisite for playing in the majors, other skills became more prized in the marketplace: contact hitting, baserunning, strike zone command, situational prowess.

These subtle shifts in valuation were augmented by baseball's successful reengineering of the ball and its physical properties. Years of research paid off in improved manufacturing specifications that dictated a strict range for the drag coefficient achieved by balls used in game play.

The specifications didn't eliminate homers by any stretch, but they did eliminate many of the cheapies. With the likelihood of the long ball reduced, other game strategies gradually moved back into vogue.

On the pitching side, the factors that had long contributed to the diminishing prominence of the starting pitcher began to swing back the other way. Partially driven by marketing forces, limits on the number of pitching changes a team could make during a game were introduced. Roster guidelines changed as well, as teams were limited in how many hurlers they could carry at a time, which also curtailed the rampant shuttling of players back and forth from the minor leagues.

At the same time, key advances were made in sports science. Teams became more adept at customizing biomechanical analysis to each individual player. Rather than deploying blanket, research-based strategies for pitcher usage and development, the new data made identifying traits for durability and measuring recovery time a more precise process. A new generation of aces was born as the attrition rate of max-effort relief pitchers became increasingly unsustainable.

Who played the game

The global expansion of baseball continued unabated. Players entered the major leagues from every continent except Antarctica, though by the end of the decade, it seemed all but certain that the new colony on that once-barren continent would bear its first big leaguer.

In the continental U.S., years-long efforts by MLB to grow the game in urban communities finally paid off. Along with a decline in participation in youth football, MLB ramped up its subsidizing of the youth baseball industry, helping overcome former barriers to playing the sport, such as transportation, cost of league and tournament play, and access to equipment.

By the end of the 2020s, the long-declining rate of participation in baseball by the African-American community had reversed in dramatic fashion.

Where the game was played

After some early-decade squabbling between MLB and the minor leagues, a new structure was created. MLB's monopoly of talent was squashed under the weight of political pressure, and the minors were mostly reestablished as an independent entity. They remained the proving ground for most young prospects, but big league teams had to purchase these prospects from the minors. This was how increased labor costs were offset by MiLB owners and how new wage minimums were met for fledgling players.

With competition fully restored in the minors and major league organizations limited in the number of players they could employ at one time, the popularity of the more cost-friendly minors exploded. Most cities with populations of more than 10,000 featured teams. Most leagues prospered as baseball reasserted itself in the void left by football's demise. It again became the national pastime.

The majors expanded to 32 teams by the middle of the decade. The new clubs were placed in Portland and Nashville. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays moved lock, stock and barrel to Montreal to become the second version of the Expos. Threats of a "split city" solution turned out to be hollow.

Attendance data

Total: 673 million fans in MLB attendance, down from 727 million in the 2010s

Highest season: Los Angeles Dodgers, 2022 (3,815,423); highest decade: Los Angeles Dodgers (36,213,888)

Lowest season: Tampa Bay Rays, 2024 (554,332); lowest decade: Baltimore Orioles (15,010,462)

For most of the decade, revenues kept climbing as monetization of streaming-based rights continued to be perfected and the game capitalized on the spread of sports betting. The popularity of the sport was stronger than ever in terms of overall engagement. However, attendance in the majors became an increasing problem as the cost of going to a ballgame kept going up. More and more, a trip to the ballpark was viewed as an elitist activity.

Baseball began to address this with more fan-friendly cost structures by mid-decade, largely driven by competition from the minor leagues. By the end of the 2020s, these changes, along with the boost from expansion and the overall uptick in the sport's popularity, helped per-game attendance climb back past the 30,000 mark.

For the decade as a whole, per-game attendance bottomed out at 27,500 in 2026. Putting that in the context of America's growing population, an average of about one in 5.3 people attended at least one major league game during the decade. That was down from one in 4.5 people during the 2010s and a record average of one in 4.2 in the 2000s, but it was similar to the rate of the 1980s.

However, in part due to stadium-building trends that favored smaller venues with less capacity, most team attendance records already on the books remained in place.

Most home runs: season: Mike Trout, 2023 (66); decade: Trout (502)

Best record by team: season: Chicago White Sox, 2023 (112-50, .691); decade: New York Yankees (920-668, .577)*

*Note: Baseball shortened the season to 154 games per team beginning with the 2026 season.

Worst record by team: season: Chicago Cubs, 2024 (55-107, .340); decade: Cleveland Indians (638-950, .402)

Index of competitive balance (ICB): 931

(This is calculated as 1 minus the standard deviation of the Pythagorean winning percentages among teams in a season times 1,000. Thus, it is not a true index but simply a metric measuring competitive balance. James uses a different method in the Abstract, though he doesn't fully reveal what it is. The decade index is a projected average for a 10-year period. A score of 1,000 would indicate a perfectly competitive league.)

Because of the uptick in rebuilding teams during the second half of the 2010s, competitive balance appeared to be on the decline. The ICB that decade was 926, marking the third straight decade with a decline. That slide started after a record-high score of 942 in the 1980s.

By the end of the 2020s, changes to the league's collective bargaining agreement with the MLBPA began to improve balance. These changes introduced more firm restrictions on upper payroll limits, a floor on per-team spending and a guaranteed fixed percentage of gross revenue at the league level that would go to player salaries. In addition, the owners agreed to an enhancement of local revenue sharing.

The Yankees and their fans were outspoken about these changes.

Home winning percentage: .545

That's well within the range of historical results.

Percentage of regulars hitting .300: 16%

(With the rise of strikeouts and the de-emphasis of batting average as a standard for hitting success, .300 hitters were never as rare as they were in the 2010s. Although it's uncertain how James defined "regular" in the Abstracts, here I've gone with any batter with at least 400 plate appearances in a season.)

During the 2010s, only 14% of big league regulars hit .300. That was down from 23% in the 2000s. In the 1920s, that figure hit an all-time high of 54%. Things got worse before they got better during the 2020s, but hitters gradually regained some of their collective ability to make contact.

The rate of .300 hitters began to climb during the latter half of the 2020s, but it's unlikely we'll ever again see an era in which more regulars reach .300 than do not.

Largest home-field advantage: Colorado Rockies. Colorado went .508 at home and .402 on the road. The Rockies never have figured out that altitude thing.

Having their best decade ever: Chicago White Sox, San Diego Padres

Having their worst decade ever: Cleveland Indians, Miami Marlins

Changing direction: Chicago White Sox, San Diego Padres, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Indians

Some of the model clubs from the 2010s began to fray and dissolve by the middle of the decade as other franchises caught up with what had once been their cutting-edge strategies. Meanwhile, the Padres usurped southern California dominance from the Dodgers, and the White Sox became the darlings of the Windy City.

Heaviest player: Aaron Judge

We're usually too sensitive in 2030 to call out a player's appearance, but here we can make an exception. The heaviest player was Judge, and it was all muscle.

Lightest player: Ronald Torreyes

Torreyes was a 151-pound utility player from early in the decade. Players continued to enter professional baseball more chiseled than ever, so it might be a while before we have another pint-sized professional like Freddie Patek.

Most strikeouts by a pitcher: season: Gerrit Cole, 2022 (366); decade: Cole (2,122)

Cole's strikeout rate reached nearly 15 per nine innings before his career peaked around the same time that the league whiff rate began to very slowly decline.

Highest batting average: season: Nick Madrigal, 2023 (.364); decade: Luis Arraez (.327)

Madrigal's performance during that historic season for the ChiSox would have been MVP-worthy in a lot of campaigns, but he finished second in the voting to teammate Luis Robert.

Lowest batting average: season: Pete Alonso, 2028 (.193); decade: Joey Gallo (.231)

Alonso hit a lot of homers during the 2020s, but when the end came, it came fast and hard. Meanwhile, Gallo was a regular for most of the decade, but players of his type fell increasingly out of favor in the latter half of the 2020s.

Best major league players (by year)

2020: Mike Trout
2021: Mike Trout
2022: Juan Soto
2023: Ronald Acuna Jr.
2024: Mike Trout
2025: Juan Soto
2026: Adley Rutschman
2027: Ronald Acuna Jr.
2028: Wander Franco
2029: Wander Franco

Best major league pitchers (by year)

2020: Gerrit Cole
2021: Gerrit Cole
2022: Gerrit Cole
2023: Jack Flaherty
2024: Walker Buehler
2025: Michael Kopech
2026: Michael Kopech
2027: Walker Buehler
2028: Jack Flaherty
2029: MacKenzie Gore

Hardest-throwing pitcher: Michael Kopech

Best curve: Patrick Corbin

Top power/speed combination: Luis Robert

Best switch-hitter: Francisco Lindor

Iron man: Nolan Arenado

During the first half of the decade, baseball was overrun by the concept of load management. Still, Arenado managed to play at least 150 games in six seasons.

Best bunter: not applicable

Resident intellectual: Trevor Bauer (source: Trevor Bauer)

Best baseball book: "My Guys" by Scott Boras (2028)

This was a memoir recounting how the Boras Corporation came to represent every big league player. Written entirely in metaphor, Boras' book was hailed by the New York Times Book Review as "the most inscrutable literary masterpiece since 'Finnegans Wake.'"

Five largest changes in baseball during the decade

1. The implementation of automated strike zones

2. The restructuring of the commissioner's position into one that co-represents owners and players equally

3. The introduction of betting kiosks inside every big league stadium

4. The use of advanced virtual reality as both a training tool and an entertainment tool, a la the holodeck in Star Trek

5. The advent of robot baseball writers

Best outfield arm: Aaron Judge

Worst outfield arm: Marcell Ozuna

Most runs batted in: season: Anthony Rendon, 2021 (153); decade: Juan Soto (1,123)

Most aggressive baserunner: Javier Baez

Baseball's most exciting player didn't change even when he started to run like Greg Luzinski.

Fastest player: Byron Buxton

Slowest player: Yadier Molina

Yadi's longtime teammate Albert Pujols was actually slower, but Molina kept his Hall of Fame career going as a regular for more than half the decade.

Best control pitcher: Kyle Hendricks

Most stolen bases: season: Adalberto Mondesi, 2023 (76); decade: Mondesi (395)

Best-looking/ugliest players: It's 2030. We don't do that anymore.

Three Finger Brown award: Thanks to medical advances, no one qualified. Nowadays, they sew those things back on and seal it up with a tricorder.

Ozzie Guillen Trophy for fewest walks: Tim Anderson

Best pitching staff: 2021 New York Yankees

The Yankees had one of baseball's best rotations in 2020, then nabbed Trevor Bauer off the free-agent market while re-upping with James Paxton. Those two, along with Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino, gave the Bombers what might have been their best starting rotation ever. The joining of former college teammates/rivals Cole and Bauer also rekindled happy memories of the Bronx Zoo days.

Best offense: 2023 Chicago White Sox

Football players: By the end of the decade, there were none, and Kyler Murray had become an All-Star shortstop for the Oakland Athletics.

Retro-Bermanisms: Perhaps these are best left to the man himself.

Basketball guys: At the professional level, the days of crossover stars such as Bob Gibson, Tony Gwynn, Danny Ainge, Dave DeBusschere, Gene Conley and Michael Jordan (well, sorta) seem to have passed. Chalk it up to specialization at the youth level. The last of his kind might have been one-time Reds pitcher Amir Garrett, who played college hoops at St. John's.

First of his kind: Shohei Ohtani

In 2022, Ohtani became the first player to win 20 games and hit 20 homers in the same season. Not even Babe Ruth did that.

Last of his kind: "Cowboy" Joe West

In 2021, West served as the home plate umpire for the last game of the World Series, becoming the final big league arbiter to call balls and strikes without the aid of a robo-ump. In 2022, he became the first umpire to try to eject one of the robots. He retired shortly thereafter.

One of a kind: Yasiel Puig

Best infield: 2023 Chicago White Sox (Andrew Vaughn, Nick Madrigal, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada)

Best outfield: 2022 Los Angeles Angels (Mike Trout, Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh)

A better man than ballplayer: Clayton Kershaw, and he's a really good ballplayer.

A better ballplayer than human being: Better leave this one alone.

Mr. Dickens, I'd like you to meet: Steele Walker

Platoon combinations I'd like to see: Brandon Belt and Skye Bolt

Best defensive team: 2022 Los Angeles Angels

Clint Hartung Award for overhyped rookies: Nah, this is too mean-spirited. All the rookies were hyped appropriately.

Outstanding sportswriter: TX4-H57

Most admirable superstar: Mike Trout

Least admirable superstar: We love them all.

Gold Glove team

C: Adley Rutschman
1B: Cody Bellinger
2B: Nick Madrigal
SS: Fernando Tatis Jr.
3B: Matt Chapman
OF: Luis Robert
OF: Mookie Betts
OF: Cristian Pache

Franchise shifts

The Tampa Bay Rays moved to Montreal for the 2026 season and became the Expos. That was the same year two expansion teams began play: the Nashville Sounds and the Portland Timbers. That was also the year baseball was realigned geographically into eight four-team divisions and wild cards were eliminated from the playoff structure.

New stadiums

Globe Life Field (Rangers, 2020)
The Thunderdome (Diamondbacks, 2025)
Poutine Park (Expos, 2026)
Tumbleweed Field (Rangers, 2027)*

*Hey, they don't build them like they used to.

Best pennant race

NL West, 2021. The Padres overcame an eight-game deficit in August to finally end the Dodgers' reign atop the division.

Best World Series

2022. The Angels beat the Braves in seven games. It was the first World Series and first championship for Mike Trout, who by then was already hailed as the best player in baseball history.

Best-hitting pitcher: Shohei Ohtani

Worst-hitting pitcher: Jose Quintana

Best minor league team: 2021 Montgomery Biscuits (Rays Double-A affiliate)

Best minor league player: Wander Franco

Odd couple: Gerrit Cole & Trevor Bauer

Drinking men: Thankfully, there are none who classify as the type who might have once hung out with Mickey Mantle and Billy Martin. Changes to baseball's treatment programs at the beginning of the decade had a terrific impact on this issue.