Even as teams maneuver for 2020, the last bit of business remaining from last season is about to be completed: handing out the major awards. Those last to-do items will be checked off over the next few days as voting results are announced, beginning Monday night with the Rookie of the Year honors.
Over the last few months of the season, we tracked the ebbs and flows of the awards races before we shifted gears into playoff coverage. Now that the World Series is over and baseball is ready to hand out the hardware, let's set some expectations.
As with the monthly Awards Watch, we'll use the Awards Index system I designed to rate the past performance of players. I'll chime in with some subjective observations as well.
Rookies of the Year
(Announced Monday, Nov. 11)
American League finalists: Yordan Alvarez, Astros; Brandon Lowe, Rays; John Means, Orioles
Awards Index top three: 1. Alvarez (1.643, 85th overall in MLB); 2. Means (1.288, 125th); 3. Lowe (1.264, 128th)
My prediction and pick: Alvarez
Award winner: Alvarez
National League finalists: Pete Alonso, Mets; Mike Soroka, Braves; Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres
Awards Index top three: 1. Alonso (2.961, 25th overall in MLB); 2. Soroka (2.341, 46th); 3. Tommy Edman, Cardinals (2.065, 59th)
My prediction and pick: Alonso
Award winner: Alonso
There's virtually no difference between Awards Index and the voters' finalists, with the lone exception of Edman. The Cardinals' utility player was certainly less heralded than Tatis, whose season ended early. But Edman was a key component in St. Louis' second-half surge into the National League Championship Series. He and Tatis ended up with a similar amount of playing time, with the latter holding the edge in most traditional categories.
Edman's edge comes in the contextual categories, where he held an edge over Tatis in win probability added and led all rookies in championship probability added. Still, no one would take Edman over Tatis if we were holding a draft of 2019 rookies, and the Padres' phenom would have given Alonso a run for his money had he not been injured.
That's all down-ballot stuff, of course. The trophies are almost certainly headed to Alvarez and Alonso in mutual landslides. Good year for rookie power hitters, huh? That said, Alvarez will win the honor with just 369 plate appearances, most of them coming as a designated hitter, a fairly limited role for a Rookie of the Year front-runner. It was a better year for rookies in the NL than the AL. In fact, by Awards Index, Alonso, Soroka, Edman, Pittsburgh's Bryan Reynolds and Tatis all scored higher than Alvarez.
Managers of the Year
(Announced Tuesday, Nov. 12)
AL finalists: Rocco Baldelli, Twins; Aaron Boone, Yankees; Kevin Cash, Rays
My prediction: Boone
My pick: Cash
Award winner: Baldelli
NL finalists: Craig Counsell, Brewers; Mike Shildt, Cardinals; Brian Snitker, Braves
My prediction and pick: Counsell
Award winner: Shildt
I still haven't seen or created a managerial metric that I'd rely on to pick this award, so there's no leaderboard here. My suspicion is that the level of publicity that Boone received for guiding the Yankees to the AL playoffs despite a virulent injury bug will win the day for him. And he's deserving. My pick, nevertheless, remains Cash who, along with Counsell, might be the best skipper in the game right now. (I have a hard time picking between those two).
They both provide balance between analytical management and traditional methods, and the reason they can do that is that they have actually internalized the concepts. They aren't just trying to get out of the way of the reports filtering down from the front office. And more importantly, they have buy-in from their players. Both managers did a remarkable job leveraging the talent on their rosters into postseason slots.
Cy Young Awards
(Announced Wednesday, Nov. 13)
AL finalists: Gerrit Cole, Astros; Charlie Morton, Rays; Justin Verlander, Astros
Awards Index top three: 1. Verlander (3.648, 8th overall in MLB); 2. Cole (3.221, 18th); 3. Morton (3.059, 21st)
My prediction and pick: Verlander
NL finalists: Jacob deGrom, Mets; Max Scherzer, Nationals; Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers
Awards Index top three: 1. DeGrom (3.676, 7th overall in MLB); 2. Jack Flaherty, Cardinals (3.288, 15th); 3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (2.949, 26th)
My prediction and pick: DeGrom
Note: Zack Greinke's overall Awards Index between Arizona and Houston was 3.120, ranking 20th in MLB. That would rank third in the AL and third in the NL.
There's a lot of disagreement between Awards Index and the voters in the NL, though both agree on deGrom, who I think will win his second straight Cy Young. Otherwise, I think the voters blew it. Strasburg and Flaherty have the volume in terms of innings, and both had big finishes for teams angling for playoff honors. Scherzer missed a number of key starts down the stretch, and Ryu's numbers are cushioned by a big first half. Flaherty led all pitchers in championship probability added. Translation: No one came up bigger at key moments in crucial games.
In the AL, Verlander's edge in innings and the contextual stats (win probability and championship probability added) make him the pick. Cole is the better pitcher at the moment, something he made clear during the postseason. This is a regular-season award, however, and if we can erase October from our memories, we can recall when it seemed like Verlander was a solid pick for the award. If they were to tie in the voting, it would be a just outcome.
Most Valuable Players
(Announced Thursday, Nov. 14)
AL finalists: Mike Trout, Angels; Alex Bregman, Astros; Marcus Semien, Athletics
Awards Index top three: 1. Trout (4.503, 3rd overall in MLB); 2. Bregman (4.323, 4th); 3. Semien (3.779, 6th)
My prediction and pick: Trout
NL finalists: Cody Bellinger, Dodgers; Anthony Rendon, Nationals; Christian Yelich, Dodgers
Awards Index top three: 1. Yelich (5.270, 1st overall in MLB); 2. Bellinger (4.606, 2nd); 3. Rendon (4.171, 5th)
My prediction: Bellinger
My pick: Yelich
In the NL, I feel like Yelich could be penalized by the voters because the Brewers kept winning after he was injured. He shouldn't be. Yelich did more in his time on the field to put Milwaukee in position for October baseball than any other player in the league did for his team. That's clear in the contextual numbers, where Yelich leads all players in win probability added and championship probability added by a good margin. He's the best player in the Senior Circuit.
Bregman closed the gap with Trout after the latter was hurt late in the season, but Bregman never overtook baseball's best player. This would be the second straight top-five finish for Bregman in the MVP balloting without winning the award. One wonders if this will become a theme for Bregman, as he's trapped in the same league with Trout and Mookie Betts. One thinks of Hall of Famer Eddie Murray, who had nine finishes at 11th or better in MVP balloting, including six in the top five and two second-place finishes. But he never won.
By the way, there was a fair bit of consternation out of New York when the finalists were announced, because the Yankees' DJ LeMahieu didn't make the cut. As you can see here, the Awards Index is on board with that outcome. In fact, LeMahieu finished eighth in the AL by that metric.