CHICAGO -- Matt Carpenter has a great thing going with the St. Louis Cardinals, as the patient, salsa-making infielder who has a World Series ring from 2011 and once mashed a series-changing hit against Clayton Kershaw.
A lot of the extensions agreed to by players this spring have seemingly been driven by anxiety, leading to many team-friendly deals. But Carpenter's two-year, $37 million amendment to a contract that was set to expire after this year is a case of a veteran exercising emotional leverage. As one of the most prominent members of one of the most storied franchises in baseball, Carpenter is probably worth more to the Cardinals than to any other team, so it was smart business for him to work this out last month.
And for teams, the extensions are good business because of the cost certainty. As some agents noted in recent weeks, some clubs with larger budgets might tend to be more aggressive in locking up their own players to long-term deals in the months ahead, now that some of their big-ticket costs are settled.
Some other players who might be well-served to work out extensions:
• Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies: It's impossible to overstate how much Hoskins is respected and valued within the Philadelphia organization, as a person, as a representative of a multibillion-dollar company, as a hitter who produces.
But in an industry increasingly promoting toward 19-, 20- and 21-year-olds, Hoskins is not a young player at 26 years old, despite being less than two seasons into his big-league career, and he plays a position, first base, which has not typically paid well in free agency because teams believe they can more easily find production. Additionally, Hoskins isn't considered a plus defender, and probably never will be.
On his current trajectory, he'll reach free agency after the 2023 season, when he's 30; it would be worthwhile for him to at least explore an extension now.
• Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs: In a conversation with Alex Rodriguez on Saturday, he said that the idea of an extension was discussed last year, but nothing really came of it after that. From Baez's perspective, it's easy to understand why. Because it took him awhile to gain consistency and everyday regular status, Baez's past numbers weren't the ideal platform for his first arbitration case.
But the Cubs are wholly aware of the player that Baez has become, with the power and the exceptional defense and baserunning instincts. Baez finished second in the NL MVP race last season and has an OPS close to 1.000 now, meaning that in any talk of a long-term deal, the two sides can feel more comfortable about projecting what Baez's future production might look like.
Baez is represented by Wasserman, the agency that represented Nolan Arenado in his negotiations with the Rockies, so there wouldn't seem to be any philosophical road block, as there might have been in the Cubs' conversations with Kris Bryant and agent Scott Boras; typically, Boras takes his clients into free agency.
Maybe the right time for Baez to work out a long-term deal will be this summer, maybe next winter, maybe in the spring. But he's demonstrated himself to be a foundation player.
• Anthony Rizzo, Cubs: The first baseman turns 30 in August and is playing under the long-term deal he signed in 2013. The team holds consecutive options for 2021 and 2022 at $16.5 million annually; without an extension, Rizzo would become a free agent at age 32.
As noted with Hoskins, free-agent first basemen have fared poorly as a group in recent winters, with the exceptions of Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana. The Cubs' front office loves Rizzo and greatly values him, and he is a legacy player seemingly destined to have a statue built in his honor -- perhaps capturing that arms-outstretched pose that Rizzo had at the instant the Cubs clinched their first World Series title in 108 years.
Rizzo would assume some risk in waiting for free agency, and it seems inevitable that the two sides will work something out to keep Rizzo with the Cubs beyond 2021. For Rizzo, it could be a case of the sooner, the better.
• Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves: The parameters in his situation are almost identical to those of Rizzo -- Freeman is 29, he has signed for two more seasons beyond 2019, he continues to be an excellent player, and he's a legacy guy expected to be the veteran anchor for a great generation of young Braves. Like Carpenter, like Rizzo, he's got some emotional leverage that can be explored.
News from around the majors
Matt Wieters has experience catching a pitcher with a crazy moving fastball, after years of working with Zack Britton and his sinker in Baltimore. He's well-suited, then, to track the darting fastball of Jordan Hicks, the St. Louis closer who throws 102-mph heat with ridiculous movement.
"All reactionary," Wieters said. "You've got to be at that speed. If you're thinking about how to catch it, it's too late."
Wieters recalled setting up for a fastball low and away to a right-handed hitter with Hicks, and instead, the ball zoomed inside, and Wieters wound up swiping at the ball, successfully, with his arm twisted to his side. "I was thinking I probably needed to find a better way to get that," Wieters said, smiling.
Hicks has been about more than his velocity this year, throwing his fastball less than 50 percent of the time.
• More pitchers are throwing harder than ever with their fastballs, consistently at 95 mph or more. This trend pushes pitchers like Adam Wainwright, who will work against the Cubs on Sunday Night Baseball in an effort to avoid a Chicago sweep of St. Louis, even further to the edges of convention. Wainwright noted in conversation Saturday that he never really has been a hard thrower at any point in his career, typically throwing a 90-91 mph fastball, and this year his average fastball velocity is not far from that, at 89.2 mph.
But Wainwright has slowed down his stuff through his pitch selection and sequencing, throwing his curveball more than ever, at an average velocity of 74.9 mph. Wainwright has thrown his curveball about as often as a fastball, according to FanGraphs, 37.3 percent of the time compared to 39.4 percent fastballs, with his cutter getting use 22.5 percent of the time.
Wainwright has a 3.73 ERA in six starts this season, with 27 strikeouts in 31⅓ innings, and whether he's pitching at higher speeds or flipping in curveballs, Wainwright noted, it's about proper execution. But there is an adjustment for the Cubs to make Sunday night, to attempt to wait out Wainwright -- and, as Kyle Schwarber said, Wainwright will present a range of velocity for each of his pitches. He can flip in an easy curveball for strike one, but then he'll throw another curve later in the same at-bat that's a little quicker, a little sharper, and moving at the bottom of the strike zone, providing less to attack for hitters so focused and trained on hitting high velocity.
• The Minnesota Twins' hitters, like all hitters, have worked to adapt to high velocity. But Minnesota is mashing high velocity at the top of the strike zone better than any other team, according to numbers dug out by researchers Paul Hembekides, Michael Bonzagni and Lee Singer of ESPN Stats & Information.
Through Saturday's games, the Twins' .674 slugging percentage on pitches thrown at least 95 mph in the upper third of the zone or higher is MLB's best mark; the average is .311. They also lead baseball by homering on 11.1 percent of pitches thrown 95 mph or faster in the upper third of the zone, significantly better than the next closest team, the Dodgers, who are at 6.7 percent; the average is 2.7. The Twins have six homers on those kinds of pitches this season, twice as many as the next-closest teams. Perhaps predictably, their 1.044 OPS in that area of the zone tops the majors as well (.603 is average).
Twins hitting coach James Rowson explained over the phone the other day about the ways in which Minnesota worked to get to high velocity, sometimes pulling a pitching machine onto the field and ratcheting up the fastballs. This was not something you would have seen on a major-league side field a decade ago.
But through the use of the machine, Rowson explained, the Twins' hitters were better able to see pitches in that specific area of the zone. Not long ago, you might see three or four hitters who would use a pitching machine to practice against high velocity. "Now, for about 80 percent of the guys, the machine is part of what they do," he said. "They get on that machine a lot during the year."
The most significant adjustment that hitters have made generally, Rowson believes, is in the approach to each at-bat. Hitters who might have taken a fastball for strike one or strike two are now increasingly in attack mode from the first pitch of the game, hunting for fastballs. "Now, there is a lot more aggressive mentality," he said. "You're not seeing fastballs going by early in the count."
Hitters won't commonly anticipate slower stuff, like Wainwright's breaking ball, because that would leave them completely vulnerable to fastballs. "You're not going to be able to sit on a lower speed," said Rowson, "and so you have to be ready for a fastball."
The Twins have been ready, and are hitting hard stuff at the top of the strike zone better than anyone.
• Jose Quintana starts for the Cubs on Sunday night, with some really ugly history against key guys in the St. Louis lineup. In their careers against Quintana, Dexter Fowler is 7-for-17, Yadier Molina is 7-for-22, Marcell Ozuna is 4-for-8 with a home run and Paul Goldschmidt is 4-for-8 with two homers.
But the Quintana that St. Louis sees will be different from the Quintana they've seen in the past, because of an alteration he made with his changeup. During the offseason, new Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy suggested to Quintana that he could tweak that particular pitch to improve its quality, and Quintana switched the grip, shifting his fingers so that they run along the seams. What this has done, Quintana says, is that it has given the pitch more depth, more deception, because it bears the appearance of a fastball longer before diving out of reach of the hitters.
In six outings this year, Quintana has a 3.48 ERA.
Baseball Tonight Podcast
Friday: Chase Utley has stories about Clayton Kershaw, and how his view on analytics changed; Jessica Mendoza previews the weekend series between the Cardinals and Cubs, including a discussion about Addison Russell's situation; Karl Ravech on the emergence of the Twins, the Nationals' coaching change, and possible landing spots for Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel.
Thursday: Houston Astros Manager A.J. Hinch on how hitters have adapted to high velocity, his team, and the impact of Michael Brantley; Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch on the great depth of the St. Louis lineup; Boog Sciambi discusses the impact of Corey Kluber's devastating injury; Sarah Langs brings The Numbers on Madison Bumgarner.
Wednesday: Keith Law on the CC Sabathia milestone strikeout, and Russell; Paul Hembekides with some perspective on Cody Bellinger's hot start; this week's Power 10.
Tuesday: A conversation with Braves lefty Max Fried about his boyhood interest in another lefty, Sandy Koufax, and his unusual pitching journey; Dave Schoenfield on the power around baseball; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game.
Monday: Todd Radom on the ugliest caps ever; a chat with the Astros' George Springer; and a monster case of poison ivy.