Nolan Arenado need not worry about the impact of the free-agent market on his financial future, nor should Aaron Hicks or any of the other players who have landed multiyear deals recently. You can debate whether they could've gotten more money by waiting until next fall, but the newly signed players at least have peace of mind, as well as the guaranteed dollars.
They will be in the minority, because as of today, it appears there will be even more free agents next fall -- perhaps in the range of 250 by the time teams complete their increasingly Draconian decisions on whether to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Teams have seemingly been adjusting their offseason strategy because that pool of free agents continues to grow, increasing the likelihood they'll be able to fill a hole on their rosters with a more team-friendly deal.
But there will be an upper echelon of free agents next fall, as there are most years -- minus Arenado and Hicks, of course. And there likely will be a consistent theme among many of the top free agents. Among them:
Anthony Rendon: Like Bryce Harper, like Jake Arrieta, like Dallas Keuchel, like Gio Gonzalez and others who have lingered on the free-agent market longer than their peers, Rendon is represented by agent Scott Boras -- and in theory, Rendon could be a candidate to have his situation drag out next winter. But like fellow Boras client Stephen Strasburg, Rendon seems to place a high value on stability and comfort level, and so it'll be interesting to see if he, like Arenado, pushes Boras to execute a multiyear deal as soon as possible. Presumably, the Nationals will be more than willing to pay Rendon, who is arguably the game's most underrated player.
Gerrit Cole: He's a Boras client. He's 28 years old and will be 29 as he hits free agency. If he has a big year, he would seem to have a chance to challenge the record-setting dollar numbers David Price and Max Scherzer got.
Xander Bogaerts: Yep, a Boras client. He'll reach free agency next fall at age 27 as an established middle infielder, and even if some teams begin to project him as a future third baseman, he'll be in position to command a whole lot of dollars -- assuming he follows on his strong 2019 and continues to hit for more power. Bogaerts' extra-base hits, year to year:
2014: 41
2015: 45
2016: 56
2017: 48
2018: 71
J.D. Martinez (if he opts out of his five-year, $110 million deal with the Red Sox): A client of ... Scott Boras. Martinez turned out to be a heck of a bargain for the Red Sox as they won the championship, and he's not only coveted for his offensive production, but he's fully established as a hitter whisperer, someone who helped make teammates better in Arizona (like A.J. Pollock) and Boston (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., etc.) by helping them to refine how they think about their swings and their at-bats.
Justin Verlander: The future Hall of Famer just turned 36 and is still a power pitcher at an advanced baseball age, like his diamond hero, Nolan Ryan. Last year, Verlander struck out an incredible 290 batters in 214 innings. So long as he continues to throw well, he'll continue to be paid very well, and unless the Astros work to take him off the board with a multiyear extension, Verlander is set to become a free agent for the first time next fall. He has reached the stage of his career when he's not likely to get a really long-term deal, but that means he could have a high volume of big-market teams chasing him with big dollars.
Chris Sale: The Red Sox have indicated that they are very willing to discuss an extension with Sale, who has thrived in Boston. Given the concerns of how his fastball regressed at the end of last season, it might make sense for Sale to make his best deal with Boston if the Red Sox make a fair-market offer.
Dellin Betances: He's about to turn 31, and if Betances has a dominant season along the lines of each of his past five years, he's going to do really well. The Yankees have already locked down Hicks and Luis Severino to team-friendly contracts, and it makes sense for them to explore the possibility of signing Betances.
Madison Bumgarner: The Giants lefty has more dollars on the line than perhaps any player in 2019. If he has a big year, and makes evaluators forget the significant damage done against his fastball in 2018, he'll launch into the market at age 30. Because of his incredible postseason history, Bumgarner has the potential to do what fewer free agents do these days -- inspire an owner (or two or three) to get emotional about the pursuit, and override the statistics-based recommendation of his front office. He's baseball's Paul Bunyan, and if he bounces back into the upper echelon of starting pitchers, he'll be a candidate for a long-term deal.
Paul Goldschmidt: The Cardinals want to keep him, and given how the market has generally played out for first basemen the past few winters, it makes sense for Goldschmidt to seriously consider a large offer. He might be the next star to work out an extension this spring.