Forrest Whitley didn't quite follow up his amazing Arizona Fall League debut with a repeat performance -- when he struck out eight of the first nine batters he faced -- but he did have the stuff of a major league No. 1 starter in his second outing Tuesday afternoon at Camelback Ranch, blowing away AFL hitters and showing maybe just a grade of command away from being an impact big league pitcher.
Whitley showed five distinct pitches across his outing, although he rolled them out slowly as if they were his new product line for 2018. He was 92-96 mph for all of his five innings, and in the first inning worked solely with that and his grade-70 changeup, 81-84 mph, with good deception and action, both tumble and fade. He added a slider, a tight curveball, and then a surprise in a cutter at 88-92 that is probably above average or better right now. It's distinct from his 83-86 mph slider, harder but with plenty of break to it, and he can use it in different spots than the slider or the plus curveball. His control is already above average, probably trending to plus, and he repeats his delivery very well, so while I think it's about average-ish command, it should end up getting to above average in time. (He had some wide misses -- he wasn't missing by inches, and generally threw a ton of strikes, but he had a handful of pitches that looked like total misfires.)
Whitley has transformed his body since he was a very heavy underclassman in high school, to where now he's 6-foot-7 and rather svelte for a pro player. He starts on the third-base side of the rubber, so he's got to be impossible for right-handed batters to pick up (between that position and the extension he gets from his height), while he has the change and cutter to keep lefties honest. There's nothing missing here; he's the best right-handed pitching prospect in baseball -- and in the running for the overall best pitching prospect, period.
• Of course you want to know how Vlad Guerrero Jr. looks, but the one game I've seen so far from him was unremarkable. His batting practice was ridiculous, as it always is, but he looked a little overeager in the game, rolling over to second and to short, popping up a slider that got too much of the zone, then popping up a 96 mph fastball. He can really throw, but he's just so big, with so much of his weight in his lower half, that I see little chance he stays at third base -- he clearly needs about 12 more days of service to work on that in Triple-A next April. I'll see him at least one more game before I leave town.
• Julio Pablo Martinez, signed by Texas this spring for $2.8 million, is listed at 5-11, which is ... not accurate. I stood close enough to him to say he's probably about 5-8. He's a 70 runner, though, and has some hand speed at the plate, although I'd guess his swing is going to be more contact than power, and he didn't fare well against better velocity on Monday. The one ball he hit hard, a double to right-center field that was struck well, came on a hanging changeup.
• Houston also has a reliever here named Trent Thornton, who showed a very impressive array of pitches, with huge spin rates on both a slider and curveball and a high spin rate on his 93-97 mph fastball, even mixing in a changeup for good measure. He has a quick arm, but right now he doesn't sync up his delivery well enough for more than below-average command. The fifth-round pick from 2015 out of UNC has reached Triple-A as a starter but hasn't had great results so far, often struggling while allowing hard contact. It's not a bad delivery at all, but he looks like he hasn't gotten control of it yet, and at worst he goes to the bullpen and blows away hitters with gas and those two high-spin breakers.
•Yankees outfield prospect Estevan Florial, who missed a good chunk of the summer after hamate surgery, is here to try to recover some of those lost at-bats but continues to struggle with pitch recognition. Through two days, I've seen him punch out three times, on a slider and a couple of big fastballs, and swing and miss at some changeups, without any hard contact yet.
• Angels right-handler Jesus Castillo threw well in his start on Monday even though he's mostly 88-90 mph, throwing primarily two-seamers. He's got a plus changeup at 82-84 but a below-average curveball and fringy slider. He doesn't have the stuff to remain a starter, but I think the fastball/change combo would work in relief, especially if he moves from the first-base side of the rubber toward the third-base side so he has more angle against right-handed batters.
• San Francisco right-hander Chase Johnson came back this year from 2017 Tommy John surgery and made 18 not-so-great starts in Double-A, missing few bats and failing to get out of the first inning three times. He was 92-96 mph in a relief outing here with a hard curveball at 85-86, showing no changeup and below-average command. The first year back can be tough for pitchers, especially when it comes to command, but if the two pitches look like that in short bursts, he has potential as a right-handed specialist reliever like a Tommy Hunter.