The Rays' haul for Chris Archer at the deadline last month was a little underwhelming -- two former prospects whose stock had declined after a year or more of non-development, even regression in the case of Tyler Glasnow. (In a bit of baseball comedy, Glasnow has walked fewer guys in 12 innings since the trade than he did in his final relief outing for the Pirates.) The return looks much better now that the PTBNL (player to be named later) is young right-hander Shane Baz, the Pirates' No. 3 prospect. A high-upside starter currently pitching in the short-season Appy League, Baz carries quite a bit of risk but has the highest practical ceiling of any starter prospect in Tampa's system.
Baz is only 19 but has an arsenal very few major league starters can match. He's touched 98 before but pitches more in the 92-95 range, and the Pirates did work with him on trying to get the ball down in the zone to generate some groundballs and reduce hard contact. He'll show four secondary pitches, a cutter and slider that can run into each other a bit, a curveball, and a changeup, with the cutter/slider a plus pitch (or two) and the curveball not far behind it. His command and control are both still below average, the command farther away, and there's always the risk it doesn't develop enough to let him reach his potential as a No. 2 or even a No. 1 starter.
There's also the same risk of any 19-year-old pitcher -- especially one who threw as hard as frequently as Baz did as an amateur -- that he could get hurt and fail to develop, or have his timetable slowed by injury. But in terms of present value, reflecting Baz's potential outcomes and the way the industry perceives him, he was one of the only possible PTBNLs who could swing the deal into the black for Tampa Bay. It's certainly unusual for the player to be named to be the most important part of the deal, but that's what we've got here.
• On Wednesday night, Cleveland's high-A affiliate Lynchburg came to Wilmington to play the Blue Rocks, bringing Cleveland's No. 3 prospect, third baseman Nolan Jones, who was also among the honorable mentions in my midseason top 50 prospects ranking. Jones, a second-round pick in 2016, was promoted to high-A earlier this month after a .279/.393/.464 performance at age 20 for low-A Lake County, but has gotten off to a rough start for Lynchburg; Wednesday was just the second time in 12 games at the level that Jones didn't strike out at all.
He came to the plate four times -- for some strange reason, the Hillcats had their best hitter batting fifth -- and had three hard-hit balls. Jones is a left-handed hitter and the Blue Rocks started lefty Daniel Tillo, but Jones had no trouble facing a southpaw, and his one hit was a hard-hit double into the left field corner. He's obviously comfortable hitting with two strikes, and despite starting with his hands high, above his back shoulder, he gets his hands started very quickly and didn't show any trouble getting the bat head to the zone on time. He's still a work in progress at third base, but the only reason he might not stay there long-term is sheer size, as he's 6-foot-4 and has bulked up enough that he looks like he's already at 200 pounds. He'll probably return to Lynchburg next April but I remain very bullish on his upside.
• Lynchburg started lefty Sam Hentges, the team's fourth-round pick in 2014, who has struck out over a man an inning this year for the Hillcats. Hentges was 91-95 throughout his start and was at his best when he threw fastballs up in the zone, getting the Blue Rocks hitters to chase repeatedly. He can change eye levels with a 78-81-mph curveball but the pitch is wildly inconsistent, sometimes average but just as frequently below-average, and he had a number that he couldn't finish properly and that sailed well above the zone.
Hentges is 6-foot-6 and gets out toward the plate well, but he starts on the extreme third-base side of the rubber and doesn't seem to get much deception or an advantage against left-handed hitters that might help him be more effective (he has no platoon split to speak of and has allowed a .346 OBP to lefties). Between that and the lack of a real changeup -- I saw one from behind the plate -- I don't see how to project him as a starter.
• On Tuesday night, I headed up to Reading to check in on the Phillies' first-round pick from last year, Adam Haseley. The outfielder got off to a miserable start in high-A Clearwater, but he had posted .324/.410/.451 since a July promotion to Double-A entering Tuesday's game against Hartford.
Unfortunately, the scouting report won't match the stats as Haseley looked awful and was behind average fastballs the entire night. In five at-bats, he had seven swings and misses, six on fastballs, and put three balls in play, two of them weakly. The problem is the swing -- Haseley's swinging entirely with his hands now, not using his lower half at all, and he doesn't have the hand acceleration to get his bat started on time or the strength in his wrists to drive a ball when he's a half-tick late. The Yard Goats seemed to figure this out and kept running fastballs in on his hands, and he couldn't do anything at all with the pitches.
• Reading starter Connor Seabold has been on a nice run of racking up strikeouts, and set a new career high with 10 against Hartford on Tuesday, although the stuff is average at best. Seabold was mostly 92-93 in his outing, showing he'd pitch inside with his fastball to right-handers, but the pitch is very flat and it doesn't have the life or velocity for him to pitch up with it. He showed a slurvy breaking ball and an occasional changeup, although you could see the latter pitch coming because he'd drop his arm slightly. He throws a ton of strikes and repeats his delivery well; if he were to go to relief and throw 96, with the slider getting commensurately harder as well, he could be an interesting bullpen piece.
• Jesus Tinoco started for Hartford and showed better stuff but not results, as his delivery has almost no deception to it and Reading hitters didn't seem to have trouble putting his fastball in play. He was 90-94 and drove the fastball down consistently from a ¾ slot where he gets on top of the ball well, and showed a cutter/slider in the 86-87 range with a very short break that should be enough to play off the fastball once through an opponent's lineup. He's now in his seventh year in pro ball, all as a starter, and his career ERA now stands at 4.80, with peripherals that point to more of the same. I'd like to see what he can do as a fastball/cutter guy in shorter stints.