Even now, in an era of ongoing league-wide change, it remains vitally important to have a strong middle infield.
Yes, shifts and other adjustments in defensive positioning have reduced the need for exceptional range. Yes, strikeouts continue to rise higher than ever, reducing the number of balls in play. Yes, batters are placing greater emphasis on lifting the ball, reducing overall chances in the infield. And yes, we've seen that second basemen and shortstops are getting far less action than they used to.
The game of baseball is in transition. That much is no secret. Yet the middle infield positions remain at a premium. Shortstop, especially, is still far harder to play than first or third base. There are fewer players available who can play regularly in the middle, so teams that are strong there have a distinct advantage over their rivals.
It's worth considering, then, which teams appear to be strongest at the two positions -- that is, the two positions together, taking everything into account. This isn't just offense, and this isn't just defense. I have chosen what I think are 2018's five best double-play combos.
For background, I looked at the historical wins above replacement (WAR) numbers at FanGraphs. In 2017, the best double-play combo was Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa of the Astros. In 2016, the best double-play combo was ... Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa of the Astros. Based on that, you might figure you can guess who's No. 1 for 2018. And you'd be exactly right. Sometimes baseball makes it easy.
My apologies to Xander Bogaerts and, eventually, Dustin Pedroia. My apologies to Jean Segura and Robinson Cano. My additional apologies to Corey Seager and whoever happens to be playing second for the Dodgers on any given day. This selection process wasn't simple, but I had to cut it off at five. That was the rule that I made for myself. Here goes:
1. Houston Astros: Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa
Some questions baseball makes difficult. Who is the game's best pitcher? You could make fairly convincing arguments for three, four, maybe even five names. Other questions baseball makes far less difficult. Who is the game's best overall player? It's Mike Trout. There is no other option, and anyone who tries to present one is overthinking.
This is a list with five teams and 10 players. This is the only selection I barely had to think about. Now and for the rest of the season, Altuve is baseball's best second baseman. Now and for the rest of the season, Correa is arguably baseball's best shortstop. Therefore, of course the Astros have the top double-play combo. Even if you prefer another shortstop, well, that guy is playing alongside a vastly inferior second baseman. It's not the shortstop's fault. It's not even the second baseman's fault. Altuve has blossomed into something of a baseball miracle.
What's hard to believe is that Altuve isn't quite 28, and Correa is 23. Joey Lucchesi just recently came up for the Padres. He's a rookie starter with a 1.66 ERA. He's 15 months older than Correa. This is an article about the best combos in 2018. Want to guess who'll be the best combo in 2019?
2. Washington Nationals: Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner
To revisit the theme from above, baseball makes it easy to identify the No. 1 double-play combo. It's much harder to identify the No. 2 double-play combo because there's far less separation. I'm taking a chance on this one because Murphy hasn't played yet, as a consequence of October microfracture surgery. Murphy could come back with compromised mobility, and for all I know that could have a powerful negative effect on his performance. But, well, mobility has never really been Murphy's game. His game is about his bat-to-ball skills, and the last time we saw him, he still looked like a star.
Murphy, of course, has had a late-career offensive renaissance, which makes me think about Zack Cozart. When Cozart started to produce at the plate, he said he'd been told to simply try to hit the ball harder. Murphy's adjustment, too, has come off as incredibly simple: try to hit for power. He has the bat control to pull it off. Few jaws will ever drop in response to Murphy's athleticism, but that's where Turner comes in.
Turner is a very different kind of valuable, and while he's far from an offensive zero, he's a better defender than Murphy, and he's one of the better baserunners in the game. There aren't many players who are able to do enough to make a meaningful contribution as a baserunner. Turner's time on the bases is worth roughly a win to the Nationals all by itself. He is somewhat easy to overlook because the Nationals have so many stars in other places.
3. Baltimore Orioles: Jonathan Schoop and Manny Machado
It's always hard for me to trust players such as Schoop, players who strike out far more often than they walk. It's not that it's impossible for them to succeed at the plate, but there's less margin for error, and it can be indicative of a lousy approach. As I write this, Schoop is batting .230 with one walk and 19 strikeouts. On the other hand, Schoop is capable of doing this to a baseball. That increases the margin for error. And even though I don't quite buy what Schoop did over a full season in 2017, well, I'm a lot higher on Machado.
For a couple of years, I've been waiting on Machado to have his Trout turn. I've wondered if he might put all of his skills together. In reality, that's probably asking too much. Machado doesn't have league-elite discipline, and he hits too many popups. I don't think Machado is going to blossom into an MVP kind of hitter. But he still could be an MVP kind of player, provided his incredible third-base defense moves with him to shortstop. What's the real difference between Machado and Correa, besides a couple of years?
I suspect Machado will put his down year behind him. He's off to a promising start. Whether Machado ends the season in the same place he started it -- that one I can't answer.
4. Los Angeles Angels: Ian Kinsler and Andrelton Simmons
The Angels might have baseball's best all-around team defense, and these two would be a huge reason for that. Even though Kinsler is almost 36, he continues to rate as a premium defensive second baseman, and Simmons is building a case to be one of the greatest defensive shortstops of all time. On the glove work alone, the Angels have a middle infield strength. But, hey, they can hit, too. It's even better when the glove guys can hit.
From 2015 to 2017, Kinsler's wOBA has gone from .335 to .356 to .313. That would suggest that he might have just hit the wall. Based on Statcast's tracking of batted balls, however, Kinsler's expected wOBA has gone from .312 to .329 to .334. That would suggest he remained just as good. As far as we can tell, Kinsler is ageless.
In 2017, Simmons rediscovered the power stroke the Braves tried to coach out of him. Simmons always has been able to make plenty of contact, but he turned that into extra-base contact, somewhat similar to Daniel Murphy, albeit to a lesser extent. The game today rewards fly balls, and Simmons started to hit more fly balls. He isn't a great hitter, and I doubt he ever will be, but if he's an average hitter, then he's an average hitter with elite defense. That makes him an outstanding everyday shortstop.
5. Cleveland Indians: Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor
There's some real volatility to this one. In 2015 and 2016, Kipnis was an All-Star-level second baseman. In 2017, he was a mess, and in 2018, early on, he has batted .164. Truth be told, this combo is here almost entirely because of Lindor. The combo is good because half of it is great. If Kipnis were to rebound, the Indians might even threaten the Astros in these rankings. If Jose Ramirez were to shift to second again, the Indians might threaten the Astros. What we know is that Lindor is amazing. Whatever's going to happen at second base is a question mark.
Lindor is coming off a funny full season. After dropping his ground ball rate by a remarkable 10 percentage points, he knocked 33 home runs, which is far more than anyone who observed Lindor in the minors ever would have predicted. Yet even though the power took off, Lindor's WAR budged only from 5.6 to 5.9. The power came at the expense of some singles, and Lindor took a little step back in the field. I'm not worried about the defense, and I think the offensive evolution is telling -- Lindor has been strong with two different approaches. There's upside still remaining, as Lindor should become a perennial MVP candidate.
I don't know what Kipnis is going to do. I don't know if Ramirez will move. Those are questions that time will resolve. No one needs any more time to figure out Francisco Lindor. The whole world should know who he is.