Everybody needs starting pitching. Teams begin the season with five starters and use double that amount by the end of the year. Almost 250 starters -- more than eight per team -- made at least five starts in 2017, pitching in a rotation for at least a month. There really isn't any team that couldn't use more starting pitching. However, there are certain teams in greater need of starting pitching, for whom filling that need could make them contenders or favorites for a playoff spot.
With Shohei Ohtani, Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, there is a top-level tier of pitching available, but there is some depth as well. Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn and Jhoulys Chacin form a middle tier, with Jaime Garcia, CC Sabathia, Andrew Cashner, Jason Vargas, Tyler Chatwood, Brett Anderson, John Lackey and Jeremy Hellickson rounding out a mix of veterans on the decline as well as some upside plays. There might not be a Chris Sale available on the trade market this offseason, unless Tampa Bay makes Chris Archer available, but Gerrit Cole and Jake Odorizzi are a few of the more intriguing names who could be on the move.
As for who needs pitching the most, let's start with one of the more surprising finalists for Shohei Ohtani.
In terms of quality, the Cubs have a pretty good foundation in Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester. Behind those three, Mike Montgomery performed fairly well in a swingman role but averaged fewer than five innings per start, while Eddie Butler walked nearly as many batters as he struck out. With Arrieta a free agent, the Cubs lose one of their best pitchers, and though they won't miss Lackey's production, they need to fill his innings.
After Montgomery and Butler, the Cubs have virtually no MLB-ready depth. The Cubs don't need Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, given the way their rotation is set up, though those acquisitions are within their means. Alex Cobb has that Tampa Bay connection with new pitching coach Jim Hickey, but Lance Lynn might be a decent bet as well. Even after the addition of one of the mid-tier options, the Cubs will probably be best-served by adding someone in the lower tier as well. A trade is also going to be a consideration for the Cubs because with Javier Baez, Addison Russell, Ben Zobrist and Ian Happ, the team has four middle infielders for two spots, and moving Happ to the outfield full-time creates a logjam there with Kyle Schwarber. The team could try to trade from this surplus to obtain the starter it needs.
Another Ohtani finalist, the Rangers don't have the enviable top of the rotation like the Chicago Cubs. If the season started today, only the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles would have worse rotations in baseball. The Rangers already made depth moves by adding Doug Fister and Mike Minor, and they are considering moving Matt Bush into the rotation. Fister should add some innings, but Minor was a reliever last season after missing all of 2015 and 2016 due to shoulder problems, while Bush started just twice during his oft-interrupted minor league career. The team still needs to add someone at the top of the rotation. Cole Hamels is more of an innings-eater than ace, with Martin Perez just a tick behind. After that, you get to Yohander Mendez and Clayton Blackburn. Whether the Rangers follow through on speculation that they'll go with a six-man rotation or stick with five, this team doesn't need a fourth and fifth starter. It needs an ace to push the current collection of starters down the pecking order.
As a result, there's going to be a lot of Jake Arrieta-related smoke coming up, given his connection to Texas, his status as one of the best pitchers available and Texas' clear need. Reuniting with Yu Darvish would also fill the bill, as would signing Ohtani. Catching up with the Astros is a near-impossible task for the Rangers, but a top-of-the-rotation arm and maybe even another midrotation starter would make them contenders for a playoff berth.
The Mariners already have their ace in budding star James Paxton. Despite making only 44 starts the past two seasons, Paxton's 8.1 fWAR ranks eighth in all of baseball among pitchers. His 3.36 ERA is impressive, and his 2.70 FIP has been topped by only that of Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard among pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched the past two years. After Paxton, the team has innings-eater Mike Leake and the sad decline of Felix Hernandez.
Even if Hernandez rebounds a bit, Seattle needs a pitcher to slot in behind Paxton. The Mariners are currently caught right in the middle of the league when it comes to starting pitching as well as position players. A move for one big pitcher could vault them into the top 10 in terms of both their rotation and overall MLB talent.
The team is considered by some to be the favorite in the Ohtani sweepstakes, and he would provide the team exactly what it needs, perhaps on the mound and at the plate. If the Mariners miss out on Ohtani, Darvish or Arrieta could make a significant difference, but even a league-average starter would help. The Mariners have guys such as Hisashi Iwakuma, Erasmo Ramirez and Marco Gonzales to fill out the rotation at the moment, so even a league-average pitcher would provide a significant upgrade with this team on the cusp of contention.
Another team in need of pitching and another Ohtani finalist. The Angels have some talent in their rotation, with Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, and Matt Shoemaker all capable of putting up at least average MLB seasons. Those four pitchers also combined to meet just one starting pitcher's workload last season, with 212 total innings pitched among them.
The Angels could theoretically roll with the pitchers they have and hope for the best, but they would likely end up with a massive innings shortage by season's end. With Mike Trout, the Angels get a massive head start on everybody on the position-player side of the diamond. Add Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton and a rebound from Kole Calhoun, and they should be ready to contend in 2018. They don't have to go out and get an ace, but they could use some quality innings. Josh Hamilton's contract is finally off the books, so they should have significant payroll room to make some moves even after keeping Justin Upton.
Baltimore Orioles
There's an argument to put the Minnesota Twins in this last spot, but they have close to a handful of league-average pitchers and could get by without a major move. If the Orioles want to contend in what could be Manny Machado's last season in Baltimore, they must do something about the rotation.
Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman were solid last season for Baltimore, doing a little bit better than league average. After that, Wade Miley was terrible, with a 5.61 ERA and 5.27 FIP. Sadly for Baltimore, that made him the team's third-best starter, with even worse seasons from Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman and Jeremy Hellickson (all now free agents). Right now, the Orioles' likely rotation includes Gabriel Ynoa, Alec Asher and Miguel Castro, a trio that has made a combined 26 major league starts. Given that a rebuild might soon be necessary, the team should probably load up on short-term commitments from the lower tier of pitchers and hope that a few work out. Signing a long-term deal to stabilize the rotation might be tempting, but that signing would be one they are likely to regret, maybe even by July.