There isn't a team in baseball that couldn't use more pitching. While some clubs like the New York Mets and Seattle Mariners have watched their rotations turn into short-term dumpster fires, most clubs' major pitching complaint is that they are an arm or two short in the bullpen. This is of particular concern if they have designs on playoff contention (that's the Washington Nationals).
In the day of the extra wild card, more teams can plausibly strive for contention. While this seeming imbalance between contenders and non-contenders could make for a slow-developing market, the potential benefits for both bullpen buyers and sellers are real and significant. The Cleveland Indians will tell you that Andrew Miller was worth every bit of the price they paid for him. The Houston Astros, on the other hand, pilfered perhaps the game's most valuable reliever this season, Chris Devenski, as part of the haul they received for a soon-to-be-retired Brett Myers in 2012.
What makes for an attractive reliever at the trade deadline? Ability, obviously, is paramount. An out pitch, lots of bat-missing, some sort of track record that transcends small-sample fluctuations. Buyers also value -- perhaps overly so -- experience at closing ballgames at the MLB level. Sellers are looking to enhance their minor league systems and, potentially, to sell high on current overperformers. Dumping present or perhaps future salary may also be a priority. It's early, but let's take a look at 10 pitchers with the best chance of checking the boxes on both buyers' and sellers' lists:
10. Brad Hand, San Diego Padres
Left-handed pitcher
It's pretty ugly in San Diego and nearly time for them to make some difficult decisions. Hand has been one of their few bright spots to date, continuing the upward trend in his swing-and-miss rate (14.7 percent this season, 7.7 percernt as recently as 2015) as his slider has blossomed into an out pitch. He throws hard for a lefty (93.0 mph average fastball velocity) and has easily handled opposite-handed hitters; this is no situational lefty. Do the Padres hang on to Hand and his relatively inexpensive ($1.38 million, with two more years of arbitration) contract, or cash him in now? Such are the calls rebuilders have to make.
9. Brandon Kintzler, Minnesota Twins
Right-handed pitcher
Twenty-seven of the 30 relievers with the most saves have swing-and-miss rates over 10 percent. Twenty-nine are over 8 percent. Kintzler is sitting right around 4 percent. That isn't to say he doesn't have value. Kintzler is a big-time grounder guy, and his sinker has been a reliable out pitch for him. That said, his market value would presently seem to be at an all-time high. The big surprise here has been the Twins' level of play this season. This could be an early test for their new front office. They could decide that their play thus far is a mirage, making it an easy call to test the market on Kintzler. Even if they decide that they have a real shot at a playoff berth this season, I'd argue that they should still move him. A big return isn't guaranteed, as he's a free agent at year's end. Get what you can at his market's apex and go with the next man up in the closer role.
8. Addison Reed, New York Mets
Right-handed pitcher
The Mets are living a nightmare at present with their rotation in tatters and Jeurys Familia out for a long stretch. On balance, Reed has been a bright spot, holding down the closer role in the interim. He's walked almost no one, and his strikeout rate is high, as usual, thanks to a nice bump in his swing-and-miss rate to around 13 percent. He has allowed very authoritative fly ball contact, so his traditional numbers aren't great. Reed makes real cash at $7.75 million this year, and is a free agent at the end of the season. The Mets are attempting to weather the storm, stay afloat and then make a second-half run at a wild-card berth. With three other sub-.500 clubs in the East, it's possible. If the bottom does fall out, however, Reed will be one of the first players offered around.
7. Jim Johnson, Atlanta Braves
Right-handed pitcher
Let's stay in the NL East. Johnson has revived his career in Atlanta, where he signed a relatively club-friendly two-year, $10 million deal to close games. Not traditionally a big bat-misser, Johnson has improved in that respect, raising his whiff rate to around 10 percent, with his average fastball velocity improving to nearly 94 mph. All of that said, it's his grounder-inducing ways that drive his value. His average launch angle allowed has hovered around 3 degrees this season, lower than any pitcher we'll discuss today. The Braves will have to make a tough call on him this summer; he's signed through 2018, and might help bridge their road back to contention. If the offers are too attractive, however, they might opt to add to an already deep farm system.
6. Ryan Madson, Oakland Athletics
Right-handed pitcher
Multiple clubs can tell horror stories about the millions they paid to Madson while he was on the disabled list. His ability has never been in question. He's still running it up there at an average velocity of 94.5 mph, and is posting an overall whiff rate around 13 percent. Most importantly, however, he has stayed healthy for the first year-plus of his three-year, $22 million deal with the A's. The club appears to be little more than an also-ran in the AL West, but with only the Astros over .500, the rest will take their time before making a final sell decision. Madson has closed games and would make a perfect seventh-eighth inning guy plus closer insurance for a contending club.
5. Right-handed pitcher
It's a mess in Miami, with the Marlins flirting with the worst record in baseball and ownership in flux. The club acted like a contender trying to add the final pieces in the offseason, acquiring every bullpen piece that wasn't nailed down. It hasn't worked out. Ramos has been a great find as their closer over the last couple years, offering both effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Well, his price is now increasing; he's making $6.6 million this season with one more year of cost control before becoming a free agent. Though he doesn't throw all that hard (92.3 mph average velocity), his fastball has been a consistent out pitch. His whiff rate has trended down this season to around 11 percent. They might want to move him while his value remains high. If the season continues down the current path, Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa and pen-mates could join him on the way out of town.
4. Bud Norris, Los Angeles Angels
Right-handed pitcher
Where did this come from? Mr. designated for assignment, Norris, is now one of the most successful closers in the AL. He was always more stuff than results as a starter, so perhaps we should have seen this coming. He's totally changed his approach in short relief -- it's all about his cutter, which he throws almost half of the time. His whiff rate is over 13 percent, and hitters don't get that fateful second look at him anymore. He's also developed a nice little pop up tendency that has served him well in the early going. The Angels are in a similar boat as the A's; they don't look like contenders, but until a second club emerges in the West, there's still hope. He's making no money ($1.75 million) and is a free agent at the end of the season. Will the Angels hold him and reap the short-term benefits, or move him for a prospect or two?
3. Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals
Right-handed pitcher
It's been an awful spring for the Royals, and Herrera has been hit-and-miss in his new closer role. He's still throwing as hard as ever (97.6 mph average velocity), but his whiff rate is down from last season and hitters are catching up to his heat more often. There are some positives here. He's allowing extremely weak grounder contact, with an average exit speed barely over 80 mph. He's still reasonably affordable at $5.3 million, with one more arbitration year before he reaches free agency. In the end, he might better thrive back in a setup role. Barring a near-term rebound, the Royals might embark on a full rebuild, and Herrera might be one of the first guys to move.
2. Tony Watson, Pittsburgh Pirates
Left-handed pitcher
It's been pretty much a nightmare scenario in Pittsburgh this season. From Jung Ho Kang to Starling Marte to Jameson Taillon and beyond, it's been a rough go. To make matters even worse, the rest of the division is at least crowding .500, including supposed lesser lights Cincinnati and first-place Milwaukee. The Pirates have to maximize resources to compete, and as a free-agent-to-be making $5.6 million this season, Watson is a likely short-timer in the Steel City. He's not your typical dominant closer, but his whiff rate is over 13 percent this season, and his fastball is firm for a lefty at an average of 92.3 mph. That left-handedness is an obvious distinguishing characteristic from the others on this list, and can help drive his market.
1. David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Right-handed pitcher
Pretty easy call here. The Sox reaped quite a haul for Chris Sale and Adam Eaton in the offseason, and despite a decent start, might soon again go to the well with Robertson. Though his average velocity is down (91.6 mph), his whiff rate is way up (15.4 percent), and his knuckle-curve, which he now throws almost 40 percent of the time, is as good as ever. Not only is he a big strikeout guy, but he is a premier pop up generator, and he has even begun to expertly mute grounder authority (83.2 mph average exit speed) this season. He's got a year and a half left on his four-year, $46 million deal, so it's an ideal time to move him and extract maximum return. The Sox also have Tommy Kahnle and Anthony Swarzak doing excellent pen work; both are so inexpensive that they might stick around, though selling high on the latter might be the right call.