Commissioner of Baseball Rob Manfred has made comments in the past about banning defensive shifts in order to increase offensive production. But as we delve deeper into the logistics, we're not sure how he'd do it -- or why. Let's take a closer look.
How we categorize shifts
There are many variations of defensive shifts. At Baseball Info Solutions, we have two principle designations for shifts:
1. Full Ted Williams (or TW) shift: TW shift is one in which there are three infielders playing on one side of the infield.
2. Partial Ted Williams shift: Two players are significantly out of their normal position but on their normal side of the infield.
If Manfred were to implement some kind of ban on shifts, the most obvious choice would be for him to eliminate only full shifts. It's easier to see whether or not three infielders are playing on one side of the infield as opposed to trying to determine whether or not players are "significantly" out of position on their regular side of the infield. The latter would require lines to be drawn to regulate whether or not a player crosses them.
So for the purpose of this exercise, let's say Manfred banned only full shifts. Let's examine what percentage of overall shifts would be banned.
Over the past five years, 60 percent of all shifts on balls in play have been full shifts, where all three infielders are playing on one side of the infield. As the table shows, the percentage of shifts that are full shifts has gone down this season compared with the previous two seasons. However, the overall number of full shifts is far greater than in prior seasons, and there's still a month left in the season. Teams are shifting against more and more players that are less extreme shift candidates (i.e. they pull the ball less than others), and these are the players that teams have a higher likelihood of using a partial shift against rather than a full shift, which leads to a lower percent of shifts that are full shifts.
Issues with trying to regulate the shift
Here's the problem: We're not even sure how Manfred would go about setting the rules. Consider these relevant questions: