Stats are great for reporting events, but when it comes to the raw tools and skills that drive those events, things quickly get trickier. When things that don't have a one-to-one relationship with a particular event, we need to use numbers in a more indirect fashion. The good news is that baseball is a data-rich game, so there are lot of numbers to work with when gauging tools or things on the major league level that border on the intangibles.
SPEED
Measuring a player's speed is difficult on multiple levels. First, there's no direct measure of straight-line speed in baseball. Even if you had every player in baseball run a 40-meter or 100-meter dash in spring training, it still wouldn't directly measure their baseball-relevant speed. Running the bases is a different activity than running to a line after hearing a starter's pistol.
But there are a number of ways to indirectly measure a player's speed: stolen base attempts/success, baserunning stats, triples percentage, outfield range, and GIDP as a percentage of grounders hit all give us an idea of a player's "baseball speed."
Bill James developed Speed Scores a few decades ago, and they tend to get the job done. I calculate my own Speed Scores as part of ZiPS, with a few other things, including adjustment for opportunity, age, longer-range looks than a single season, and even park effects. You might be scratching your head at how a park would affect speed, but beyond the playing field itself, parks that cause different styles of baseball have an effect on the stats that make up speed score. In the charts below, I'm not including pitchers.
TOP 10 (min. 50 MLB PA in 2016)
1. Jarrod Dyson, Royals
2. Socrates Brito, Diamondbacks
3. Raul Mondesi Jr., Royals
4. Trea Turner, Nationals
5. David Dahl, Rockies
6. Billy Hamilton, Reds
7. Mallex Smith, Braves
8. Dee Gordon, Marlins
9. Orlando Arcia, Brewers
10. Jemile Weeks, Padres
BOTTOM 10 (min. 50 MLB PA in 2016)
1. Peter O'Brien, Diamondbacks
2. Justin Bour, Marlins
3. Kevin Plawecki, Mets
4. Rene Rivera, Mets
5. Dae-Ho Lee, Mariners
6. Ryon Healy, A's
7. Prince Fielder, Rangers
8. Martin Maldonado, Brewers
9. Jett Bandy, Angels
10. David Ortiz, Red Sox
BASERUNNING SKILL
This one is more of a challenge, simply because we're trying to measure skill divorced from speed. For this, I like to measure baserunning stats relative to speed score. Who gets the most out of their speed?
TOP 10
1. Billy Hamilton, Reds
2. Kris Bryant, Cubs
3. Ian Desmond, Rangers
4. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
5. Brett Lawrie, White Sox
6. Brian Dozier, Twins
7. Adrian Beltre, Rangers
8. Adam Jones, Orioles
9. Greg Garcia, Cardinals
10. Colby Rasmus, Astros
BOTTOM 10
1. Yasiel Puig, Dodgers
2. Billy Butler, A's
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. Yunel Escobar, Angels
5. Peter Bourjos, Phillies
6. Matt Kemp, Braves
7. Melvin Upton, Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
8. Jay Bruce, Mets
9. Nelson Cruz, Mariners
10. Anthony Gose, Tigers
POWER
While there are a number of ways to measure power, I tend to prefer something less direct than straight home-run power/distance. When you think about it, power in baseball is how many bases you advance yourself and runners. Homers are the best way to do it, because, obviously, it advances everybody to home. But long singles and doubles also represent real baseball power, too.
To measure this, I like using slugging percentage on hit balls. But one extra twist is that I also include speed score in here, simply because a double for David Ortiz has to go deeper than a double for Billy Hamilton, and Ortiz is hitting a lot fewer infield singles.
TOP 10
1. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
2. Chris Carter, Brewers
3. Miguel Sano, Twins
4. Chris Davis, Orioles
5. Nelson Cruz, Mariners
6. Yoenis Cespedes, Mets
7. Mark Trumbo, Orioles
8. Brandon Moss, Cardinals
9. J.D. Martinez, Tigers
10. Kris Bryant, Cubs
BOTTOM 10
1. Ben Revere, Nationals
2. Billy Burns, Royals
3. Daniel Castro, Braves
4. Andrew Romine, Tigers
5. Mikie Mahtook, Rays
6. Mike Aviles, Tigers
7. Jarrod Dyson, Royals
8. Tyler Holt, Reds
9. Kolten Wong, Cardinals
10. Alcides Escobar, Royals
PLATE DISCIPLINE
In baseball, I like to separate good plate discipline from bad plate discipline. While a guy who walks 100 times a year is almost certainly a better judge at the plate than the player who walks 10 times a year, sometimes players fall into a trap in which they become too passive at the plate. Players such as Ben Grieve and Jeremy Hermida were long-term disappointments in part because plate discipline is more a means to an end -- getting better quality hits -- than an end in itself.
Conversely, when projecting Kris Bryant from minor league play, people told me he would underperform his projections because of his high strikeout rate in the minors. But Bryant's high strikeout rate wasn't really a problem for the simple fact that, when a player is hitting .325 and slugging .661, his hits are so valuable, the benefits of making contact encourage an aggressive approach.
So as a pure measure of pitch evaluation, I like looking at a player's Zone Swing Percentage minus his Out-of-Zone Swing Percentage. Note that this isn't a measure of a player's ability to actually make contact, but to recognize strikes versus non-strikes. It also actually has predictive value for future positive changes in strikeout rate.
TOP 10 in 2016
1. Brandon Belt, Giants
2. Chris Iannetta, Mariners
3. Miguel Montero, Cubs
4. Nick Hundley, Rockies
5. Brandon Crawford, Giants
6. Alex Avila, White Sox
7. Matt Joyce, Pirates
8. Freddie Freeman, Braves
9. Ryan Schimpf, Padres
10. Kris Bryant, Cubs
BOTTOM 10 in 2016
1. Jose Iglesias, Tigers
2. Ryon Healy, A's
3. Jorge Polanco, Twins
4. Daniel Castro, Braves
5. Jimmy Paredes, Phillies
6. Javier Baez, Cubs
7. Chris Gimenez, Indians
8. Chase d'Arnaud, Braves
9. Phil Gosselin, Diamondbacks
10. Adam Lind, Mariners
INDUCING WEAK CONTACT
I couldn't get away without looking at something pitcher-related, could I? So why not look at the third rail. One of the most misunderstood things about BABIP/DIPS type numbers is that people think Voros McCracken, the analyst who broke important ground with his work on this subject 15 years ago, said that a pitcher had no effect on balls hit into play.
This is inaccurate, and I know it's something that still bugs Voros. What he said, and what still holds true, is that pitchers have a limited ability to influence BABIP. On a seasonal basis, it's an extremely noisy measure that hides any signal that it might contain.
Over longer careers, however, pitchers can and do demonstrate a real ability to allow a lower-than-expected BABIP based on the era, park, and defense behind them. See Tom Glavine. Looking at the last decade, we can make a reasonable estimation of which pitchers should be expected to beat their FIP by the most, based on the difference between their FIP and actual ERA, the performances of their historical defense, and the total batters faced. So looking at only the pitchers still active in 2016, I estimated which ones are the best and worst at maintaining a low BABIP with these data.
TOP 10
1. Chris Young, Royals
2. Hector Santiago, Twins
3. Brad Ziegler, Red Sox
4. Darren O'Day
5. R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays
6. Tyler Clippard, Yankees
7. Miguel Gonzalez, White Sox
8. Bryan Morris, Marlins
9. Javier Lopez, Giants
10. Johnny Cueto, Giants
BOTTOM 10
1. Ricky Nolasco, Angels
2. Luke Hochevar, Royals
3. Francisco Liriano, Blue Jays
4. Edwin Jackson, Padres
5. Shane Greene, Tigers
6. Michael Pineda, Yankees
7. Tim Lincecum, Angels
8. Collin McHugh, Astros
9. Phil Hughes, Twins
10. Ubaldo Jimenez, Orioles